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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1STL
NYM

NYM

3-3

1
2
STL

STL

4-2

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri
21,684 attended

Line movement

7 snapshots

STL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

STL no-vig %

41.0%

open 41.0%

+2.0+1.0STL SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL45.0%37.0%STL NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 8 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = STL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

NYM 1 · STL 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked STL +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team1234567891011R
NYM000001000001
STL000001000012

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Mar 31, 26sim 97
    210
    24(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 30, 26sim 97
    214
    24(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 14, 26sim 95
    71
    6(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 15, 26sim 95
    71
    6(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 18, 26sim 95
    172
    9(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 5, 26sim 94
    215
    26(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+133

Close price

+133

Open no-vig

41.0%

Close no-vig

41.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Wed, Apr 1·Final/SeriesSTL wins series 2-1/VegasNYM -161

Recap · MLB

St. Louis Cardinals held off New York Mets, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.

STL +1.5 cashed (NYM lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYM · top performer

NYM
Juan Soto

Juan Soto

LF

1.000OPS

5-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

STL · top performer

STL
Ivan Herrera

Ivan Herrera

DH

0.933OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/11
NYM3-3
1
2
STL4-2
NYM3-3·STL4-2
NYM

NYM

3-3

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. LindorF. Lindor★SS
0-44000010
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
1-55111101
SPRINT25.513
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
1-55010000
SPRINT25.716
J. PolancoJ. Polanco★1B
1-44010000
SPRINT25.310
L. Robert Jr.L. Robert Jr.★CF
1-44010011
SPRINT2993
M. VientosM. Vientos★1B
1-22010000
SPRINT25.513
M. SemienM. Semien★2B
0-44000012
F. AlvarezF. Alvarez★C
0-33000001
T. TaylorT. Taylor★CF
0-22000000
B. BatyB. Baty3B
0-33000000
C. BengeC. BengeRF
0-22000001
Team5-3838151146
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
F. PeraltaF. Peralta★SP
5.1311270
H. BrazobanH. BrazobanRP
0.2100010
B. RaleyB. RaleyRP
1.0000020
L. WeaverL. WeaverRP
1.0000010
D. WilliamsD. WilliamsRP
1.0000110
T. MyersT. MyersRP
1.2110110
Team10.25214130
STL

STL

4-2

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WetherholtJ. Wetherholt★2B
1-55210002
SPRINT27.560
I. HerreraI. Herrera★DH
1-33010021
SPRINT25.513
A. BurlesonA. Burleson★1B
0-55000001
M. WinnM. Winn★SS
1-44011011
SPRINT2872
N. GormanN. Gorman★3B
1-33011010
SPRINT257
T. SaggeseT. Saggese★LF
1-44010002
SPRINT27.354
N. ChurchN. Church★LF
0-22000000
P. PagesP. Pages★C
0-44000003
V. Scott IIV. Scott II★CF
0-44000001
J. WalkerJ. WalkerRF
0-22000002
Team5-36362520413
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. LiberatoreM. Liberatore★SP
6.0311121
R. StanekR. StanekRP
0.2100010
J. RomeroJ. RomeroRP
1.1000010
R. O'BrienR. O'BrienRP
1.0100020
J. BruihlJ. BruihlRP
1.0000100
C. RoycroftC. RoycroftRP
0.1000200
G. GraceffoG. GraceffoRP
0.2000000
Team11.0511461

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYM

  • F. Peralta
    92 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      42%·94.1 mph·35% whiff
    • CH
      36%·88.0 mph·29% whiff
    • CU
      16%·80.4 mph·29% whiff
    • SL
      3%·85.5 mph·— whiff
    • CS
      2%·74.8 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Myers
    20 pitches·15% CSW
    • FF
      40%·92.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      30%·80.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·80.6 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      10%·86.1 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Williams
    18 pitches·22% CSW
    • CH
      50%·84.8 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      50%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
  • H. Brazoban
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • CH
      54%·90.5 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      38%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      8%·97.1 mph·100% whiff
  • B. Raley
    12 pitches·50% CSW
    • CH
      33%·84.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      25%·90.6 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      25%·80.6 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      17%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Weaver
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      64%·95.2 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      36%·87.9 mph·50% whiff

STL

  • M. Liberatore
    76 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      28%·93.8 mph·8% whiff
    • SL
      24%·85.6 mph·18% whiff
    • CH
      18%·88.3 mph·11% whiff
    • CU
      11%·76.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      11%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      5%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      4%·88.5 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Stanek
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      44%·97.7 mph·40% whiff
    • FS
      19%·88.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      19%·98.1 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      19%·91.1 mph·100% whiff
  • J. Romero
    16 pitches·19% CSW
    • ST
      50%·82.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      38%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·88.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      6%·94.1 mph·— whiff
  • R. O'Brien
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • ST
      50%·83.5 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      44%·97.6 mph·40% whiff
    • SL
      6%·89.6 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Bruihl
    12 pitches·8% CSW
    • ST
      58%·78.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      33%·80.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      8%·90.0 mph·— whiff
  • C. Roycroft
    11 pitches·9% CSW
    • SI
      55%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      27%·94.6 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      18%·89.6 mph·— whiff
  • G. Graceffo
    6 pitches·17% CSW
    • CH
      33%·88.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      33%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      33%·95.4 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

5

1

Runs

2

0

Errors

2

Current series

STL wins series 2-1

Mar 30NYMNYM4@STLSTL2
Mar 31NYMNYM0@STLSTL3
Apr 1NYMNYM1@STLSTL2today

Season series

STL leads series 2-1

Mar 30NYMNYM4@STLSTL2
Mar 31NYMNYM0@STLSTL3
Apr 1NYMNYM1@STLSTL2today
Jun 9STLSTL@NYMNYMupcoming
Jun 10STLSTL@NYMNYMupcoming
Jun 11STLSTL@NYMNYMupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYM -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYMNYM-16162%
STLSTL+13343%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYM ↔ STL

Biggest swing: 38pp · Bottom 11th Inning

NYMNYM
J. Soto

J. Soto

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.000 OPS

F. Peralta

F. Peralta

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

STLSTL
I. Herrera

I. Herrera

DH

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.933 OPS

M. Liberatore

M. Liberatore

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 2 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

How it ended

STL beat NYM 2-1. Winn's play in the bottom 11th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (38pp).

Win probability

STL vs NYM

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10I11

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
STLBottom 6th Inning · 1-1
+18pp→ 56% WP

Gorman · singled to center, Wetherholt scored, Herrera to third.

STLTop 11th Inning · 1-1
+18pp→ 65% WP

Baty · grounded into fielder's choice to second, Robert Jr. to second, Young to third, Soto out at home.

STLBottom 11th Inning · 1-2
+38pp→ 100% WP

Winn · reached on infield single to second, Wetherholt scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team1234567891011R
NYM000001000001
STL000001000012

Period scoring

NYM won 0 · STL won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

1
1

Inn 6

Soto 1

Gorman 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

0
0

Inn 10

0
1

Inn 11

Winn 1

NYM
STL

Play-by-play · 640 plays

period
event
player
  1. B11

    ·

    NYM 1·STL 2

  2. B11

    Winn reached on infield single to second, Wetherholt scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    NYM 1·STL 2

    +38pp

  3. B11

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYM 1·STL 2

  4. B11

    Tobias Myers pitches to Masyn Winn

    · ·

    NYM 1·STL 2

  5. B11

    · ·

    NYM 1·STL 1

  6. B11

    Burleson grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Herrera out at second, Wetherholt to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    NYM 1·STL 1

    −19pp

  7. B11

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYM 1·STL 1

  8. B11

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYM 1·STL 1

  9. B11

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    NYM 1·STL 1

  10. B11

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYM 1·STL 1

  11. B11

    Tobias Myers pitches to Alec Burleson

    · ·

    NYM 1·STL 1

  12. B11

    · ·

    NYM 1·STL 1

  13. B11

    Herrera intentionally walked.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    NYM 1·STL 1

    +17pp

  14. B11

    Pitch 4 : Automatic Ball - IBB 4

    · ·

    NYM 1·STL 1

  15. B11

    Pitch 3 : Automatic Ball - IBB 3

    · ·

    NYM 1·STL 1

  16. B11

    Pitch 2 : Automatic Ball - IBB 2

    · ·

    NYM 1·STL 1

  17. B11

    Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball - IBB 1

    · ·

    NYM 1·STL 1

  18. B11

    Tobias Myers pitches to Ivan Herrera

    ·

    NYM 1·STL 1

  19. B11

    Bottom of the 11th inning

    NYM 1·STL 1

  20. M11

    Middle of the 11th inning

    NYM 1·STL 1

  21. T11

    · ·

    NYM 1·STL 1

  22. T11

    Semien flied out to right.

    · ·

    NYM 1·STL 1

  23. T11

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYM 1·STL 1

  24. T11

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    NYM 1·STL 1

  25. T11

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYM 1·STL 1

  26. T11

    Gordon Graceffo pitches to Marcus Semien

    · ·

    NYM 1·STL 1

  27. T11

    · ·

    NYM 1·STL 1

  28. T11

    Baty grounded into fielder's choice to second, Robert Jr. to second, Young to third, Soto out at home.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    NYM 1·STL 1

    +18pp

  29. T11

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYM 1·STL 1

  30. T11

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYM 1·STL 1

Team stats

NYM

Away

Stat

STL

Home

1

Runs

2

5

Hits

5

0

Errors

2

10

TB

5

1

HR

0

4

BB

4

6

K

13

21

LOB

22

Betting line

NYM -1.5·O/U 7.5·NYM -161/STL +133

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

STL vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

117

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    5.7± 3.3low
  • Christian ScottNYM
    5.0± 3.1low

Hits

  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    1.2± 1.1low
  • Bo BichetteNYM
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.8± 2.6high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    2.2± 2.6low
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    1.9± 2.2high

RBIs

  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Bo BichetteNYM
    0.7± 1.5high

Earned runs

  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    2.8± 2.9low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    2.8± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.5%

ensemble · NYM favored

  • Elo Static

    51.3%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    49.9%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    51.6%

    P(STL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.74 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 16 players in cohort
  • Luis Robert Jr.NYM · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Jordan WalkerSTL · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Nathan ChurchSTL · LF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Masyn WinnSTL · SS
    SPRINT2872