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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1DET
KC

KC

7-11

1
2
DET

DET

9-9

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan
19,609 attended

Line movement

10 snapshots

DET spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

DET no-vig %

55.3%

open 55.3%

-1.0-2.0DET SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL59.3%51.3%DET NO-VIG %MODEL 51.9%May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = DET favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

KC 1 · DET 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked DET +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
KC0000100001
DET001000012

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+114

Close price

+114

Open no-vig

44.7%

Close no-vig

44.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 14, 26sim 98
    71
    6(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 10, 26sim 96
    114
    21(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 10, 26sim 96
    111
    1(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 22, 26sim 96
    241
    28(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 1, 26sim 96
    60
    29(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 27, 26sim 96
    281
    14(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Apr 15·Final/SeriesDET wins series 3-0/VegasDET -137

Recap · MLB

Detroit Tigers held off Kansas City Royals, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.

KC +1.5 cashed (DET won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 5.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

KC · top performer

KC
Jac Caglianone

Jac Caglianone

RF

2.000OPS

3-3

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

DET · top performer

DET
Wenceel Perez

Wenceel Perez

RF

5.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
KC7-11
1
2
DET9-9
KC7-11·DET9-9
KC

KC

7-11

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
0-44000001
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
0-44000001
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
1-33010010
SPRINT25.411
S. PerezS. Perez★C
0-44000002
C. JensenC. Jensen★C
0-44000002
M. MasseyM. Massey★2B
0-11100011
SPRINT26.838
J. CaglianoneJ. Caglianone★RF
3-33030010
SPRINT27.148
L. ThomasL. Thomas★CF
1-44010001
SPRINT28.688
K. IsbelK. Isbel★CF
1-22011000
SPRINT26.941
J. IndiaJ. India2B
0-22000000
S. MarteS. MarteRF
0-11000000
Team6-3232161038
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. LugoS. Lugo★SP
6.2511070
D. Lynch IVD. Lynch IVRP
0.1000010
E. MorganE. MorganRP
1.0211111
Team8.0722191
DET

DET

9-9

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. McGonigleK. McGonigle★SS
1-33010012
SPRINT28.278
G. TorresG. Torres★2B
3-44030000
SPRINT25.18
C. KeithC. Keith★3B
0-44000002
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
0-33000002
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
0-33000000
K. CarpenterK. Carpenter★RF
0-33000001
Z. McKinstryZ. McKinstry★2B
1-22010001
SPRINT26.941
J. BaezJ. Baez★SS
1-33110000
SPRINT27.251
J. RogersJ. Rogers★C
0-22001001
W. PerezW. PerezRF
1-11111100
SPRINT27.969
Team7-2828272119
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. FlahertyJ. Flaherty★SP
6.0211370
T. HoltonT. HoltonRP
0.2200000
K. FinneganK. FinneganRP
1.1100000
K. JansenK. JansenRP
1.0100010
Team9.0611380

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

KC

  • S. Lugo
    92 pitches·26% CSW
    • SI
      22%·91.0 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      21%·91.6 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      18%·83.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      14%·76.7 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      11%·79.6 mph·14% whiff
    • FC
      9%·89.9 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      3%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CS
      1%·70.1 mph·— whiff
    • SV
      1%·79.8 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Morgan
    20 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      40%·90.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      35%·76.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·86.0 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Lynch IV
    4 pitches·75% CSW
    • SL
      75%·88.3 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      25%·94.6 mph·— whiff

DET

  • J. Flaherty
    97 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      40%·93.7 mph·8% whiff
    • SL
      23%·85.8 mph·60% whiff
    • KC
      20%·78.5 mph·36% whiff
    • SI
      12%·91.7 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      5%·85.7 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Jansen
    20 pitches·35% CSW
    • FC
      75%·93.6 mph·22% whiff
    • SL
      15%·84.8 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      10%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Finnegan
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • FS
      44%·87.8 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      31%·86.3 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      25%·96.8 mph·25% whiff
  • T. Holton
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • FC
      29%·86.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      21%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·84.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      14%·91.8 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      14%·79.5 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      7%·79.5 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

7

1

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Current series

DET wins series 3-0

Apr 14KCKC1@DETDET2
Apr 15KCKC1@DETDET2today
Apr 16KCKC9@DETDET10

Season series

DET leads series 2-0

Apr 14KCKC1@DETDET2
Apr 15KCKC1@DETDET2today
Apr 16KCKC9@DETDET10
May 8DETDET3@KCKC4
May 9DETDET1@KCKC5
May 10DETDET6@KCKC3
Jul 23KCKC@DETDETupcoming
Jul 24KCKC@DETDETupcoming
Jul 25KCKC@DETDETupcoming
Jul 26KCKC@DETDETupcoming
Aug 22DETDET@KCKCupcoming
Aug 22DETDET@KCKCupcoming
Aug 23DETDET@KCKCupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

KCKC+11447%
DETDET-13758%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -1.5↗SpreadBet DET -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowKC ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 34pp · Bottom 8th Inning

KCKC
J. Caglianone

J. Caglianone

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-3 · 2.000 OPS

S. Lugo

S. Lugo

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.2 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 5 H

DETDET
W. Perez

W. Perez

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS

J. Flaherty

J. Flaherty

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 3 BB

How it ended

DET beat KC 2-1. Biggest WP swing of the night came in the bottom 8th inning (34pp).

Win probability

DET vs KC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
KCTop 3rd Inning · 0-0
+11pp→ 51% WP

Caglianone · tripled to center.

KCTop 5th Inning · 1-1
+15pp→ 43% WP

Isbel · singled to right, Massey scored, Caglianone to third.

DETBottom 8th Inning · 1-2
+34pp→ 90% WP

Pérez homered to right (360 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
KC0000100001
DET00100001—2

Period scoring

KC won 1 · DET won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Rogers 1

0
0

Inn 4

1
0

Inn 5

Isbel 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

KC
DET

Play-by-play · 513 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    KC 1·DET 2

  2. T9

    Thomas flied out to left.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    KC 1·DET 2

    +5pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    KC 1·DET 2

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    KC 1·DET 2

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    KC 1·DET 2

  6. T9

    Tolbert to third on a balk.

    ·

    KC 1·DET 2

  7. T9

    Tolbert to third on a balk.

    ·

    KC 1·DET 2

  8. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    KC 1·DET 2

  9. T9

    Tolbert to second on passed ball by Rogers.

    · ·

    KC 1·DET 2

  10. T9

    Tolbert to second on passed ball by Rogers.

    · ·

    KC 1·DET 2

  11. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    KC 1·DET 2

  12. T9

    Kenley Jansen pitches to Lane Thomas

    · ·

    KC 1·DET 2

  13. T9

    Tolbert ran for Caglianone

    ·

    KC 1·DET 2

  14. T9

    ·

    KC 1·DET 2

  15. T9

    Caglianone singled to left.

    ·

    KC 1·DET 2

    −3pp

  16. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    KC 1·DET 2

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    KC 1·DET 2

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    KC 1·DET 2

  19. T9

    Kenley Jansen pitches to Jac Caglianone

    ·

    KC 1·DET 2

  20. T9

    ·

    KC 1·DET 2

  21. T9

    India flied out to left.

    ·

    KC 1·DET 2

    +4pp

  22. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    KC 1·DET 2

  23. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    KC 1·DET 2

  24. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    KC 1·DET 2

  25. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    KC 1·DET 2

  26. T9

    Kenley Jansen pitches to Jonathan India

    ·

    KC 1·DET 2

  27. T9

    ·

    KC 1·DET 2

  28. T9

    Jensen struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    KC 1·DET 2

    +6pp

  29. T9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    KC 1·DET 2

  30. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    KC 1·DET 2

Team stats

KC

Away

Stat

DET

Home

1

Runs

2

6

Hits

7

0

Errors

0

10

TB

11

0

HR

1

3

BB

1

8

K

9

12

LOB

5

Betting line

DET -1.5·O/U 8.5·KC +114/DET -137

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 16 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Matt VierlingDET · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Kevin McGonigleDET · SS
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

DET vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low
  • Michael WachaKC
    5.4± 2.1low
  • Seth LugoKC
    5.0± 2.1low

Hits

  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.7high
  • Riley GreeneDET
    0.9± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    1.7± 1.5high
  • Salvador PerezKC
    1.7± 2.4high
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.6± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Salvador PerezKC
    0.6± 1.1high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    0.5± 0.7high
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    0.5± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low
  • Framber ValdezDET
    2.7± 3.6low
  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.7%

ensemble · DET favored

  • Elo Static

    53.4%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    50.9%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.1%

    P(DET win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.11 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.