
KC
7-11

DET
9-9
Line movement
10 snapshots
DET spread
-1.5
open -1.5
Total
O/U 8.5
open O/U 8.5
DET no-vig %
55.3%
open 55.3%
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = DET favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
DET wins
KC 1 · DET 2 (by 1)
Model verdict
✓ Hit
Picked DET +3pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| DET | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
The receipts
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
+114
Close price
+114
Open no-vig
44.7%
Close no-vig
44.7%
Line barely moved · Graded: miss
Historical comparables
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs
Recap · MLB
etroit Tigers held off Kansas City Royals, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.
KC +1.5 cashed (DET won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 5.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
KC · top performer

Jac Caglianone
RF
3-3
AB-H
0
R
0
RBI
DET · top performer

Wenceel Perez
RF
1-1
AB-H
1
R
1
RBI
MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST


KC
7-11
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
SPRINT25.411 | ||||||||
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 0-1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
SPRINT26.838 | ||||||||
| 3-3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
SPRINT27.148 | ||||||||
| 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT28.688 | ||||||||
| 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT26.941 | ||||||||
| 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 6-32 | 32 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
| 6.2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 0 | |
| 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Team | 8.0 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 1 |
DET
9-9
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
| 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
SPRINT28.278 | ||||||||
| 3-4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT25.18 | ||||||||
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT26.941 | ||||||||
| 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT27.251 | ||||||||
| 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1-1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT27.969 | ||||||||
| Team | 7-28 | 28 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
| 6.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 | |
| 0.2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail
Statcast · via Baseball SavantKC
DET
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
6
Hits
7
1
Runs
2
0
Errors
0
Current series
DET wins series 3-0
Season series
DET leads series 2-0
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
DET -1.5
Total
8.5
Standard · 0.0 vs avg
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 10 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
8.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 34pp · Bottom 8th Inning
J. Caglianone
RFBatter of the gamePerfect day
3-for-3 · 2.000 OPS
S. Lugo
SPStarting pitcherQuality start
6.2 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 5 H
W. Perez
RFBatter of the gamePerfect day
1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS
J. Flaherty
SPStarting pitcherQuality start
6.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 3 BB
How it ended
DET beat KC 2-1. Biggest WP swing of the night came in the bottom 8th inning (34pp).
Win probability
DET vs KC
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactCaglianone · tripled to center.
Isbel · singled to right, Massey scored, Caglianone to third.
Pérez homered to right (360 feet).
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| DET | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — | 2 |
Period scoring
KC won 1 · DET won 2
Inn 1
Inn 2
Inn 3
Rogers 1
Inn 4
Inn 5
Isbel 1
Inn 6
Inn 7
Inn 8
Inn 9
Play-by-play · 513 plays
· ·
KC 1·DET 2
Thomas flied out to left.BIG MOMENT
· ·
KC 1·DET 2
+5pp
Pitch 5 : Ball In Play
· ·
KC 1·DET 2
Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
KC 1·DET 2
Pitch 3 : Ball 1
· ·
KC 1·DET 2
Tolbert to third on a balk.
·
KC 1·DET 2
Tolbert to third on a balk.
·
KC 1·DET 2
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging
· ·
KC 1·DET 2
Tolbert to second on passed ball by Rogers.
· ·
KC 1·DET 2
Tolbert to second on passed ball by Rogers.
· ·
KC 1·DET 2
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging
· ·
KC 1·DET 2
Kenley Jansen pitches to Lane Thomas
· ·
KC 1·DET 2
Tolbert ran for Caglianone
·
KC 1·DET 2
·
KC 1·DET 2
Caglianone singled to left.
·
KC 1·DET 2
−3pp
Pitch 3 : Ball In Play
·
KC 1·DET 2
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking
·
KC 1·DET 2
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
·
KC 1·DET 2
Kenley Jansen pitches to Jac Caglianone
·
KC 1·DET 2
·
KC 1·DET 2
India flied out to left.
·
KC 1·DET 2
+4pp
Pitch 4 : Ball In Play
·
KC 1·DET 2
Pitch 3 : Ball 1
·
KC 1·DET 2
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking
·
KC 1·DET 2
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul
·
KC 1·DET 2
Kenley Jansen pitches to Jonathan India
·
KC 1·DET 2
·
KC 1·DET 2
Jensen struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT
·
KC 1·DET 2
+6pp
Pitch 8 : Strike 3 Swinging
·
KC 1·DET 2
Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul
·
KC 1·DET 2
Team stats
KC
Away
Stat
DET
Home
1
Runs
2
6
Hits
7
0
Errors
0
10
TB
11
0
HR
1
3
BB
1
8
K
9
12
LOB
5
Betting line
DET -1.5·O/U 8.5·KC +114/DET -137
STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts
4 of 16 players in cohortPlayer projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
122
projections · 78 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.7%
ensemble · DET favored
Elo Static
53.4%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
50.9%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.1%
P(DET win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.11 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
93% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.