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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2NYM
NYM

NYM

3-1

4
2
STL

STL

2-2

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri
21,307 attended

Line movement

10 snapshots

STL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

STL no-vig %

41.7%

open 41.7%

+2.0+1.0STL SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.5TOTAL45.7%37.7%STL NO-VIG %May 4, 11 AMMay 30, 5 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = STL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

NYM 4 · STL 2 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked STL +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYM1000120004
STL1000010002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+129

Close price

+129

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

41.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Mon, Mar 30·Final/SeriesSTL wins series 2-1/VegasNYM -156

Recap · MLB

New York Mets went into St. Louis Cardinals and beat them, 4–2.

NYM -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 9.0 by 3.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYM · top performer

NYM
Carson Benge

Carson Benge

RF

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

STL · top performer

STL
Nolan Gorman

Nolan Gorman

3B

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
NYM3-1
4
2
STL2-2
NYM3-1·STL2-2
NYM

NYM

3-1

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. LindorF. Lindor★SS
1-33110010
SPRINT26.941
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
1-33011020
SPRINT25.513
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
1-55012000
SPRINT25.716
J. PolancoJ. Polanco★1B
2-55020000
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
1-55110001
J. YoungJ. Young★1B
1-44111000
SPRINT27.354
M. SemienM. Semien★2B
0-33000012
C. BengeC. Benge★RF
2-44120000
SPRINT28.586
F. AlvarezF. Alvarez★C
1-33010011
L. Robert Jr.L. Robert Jr.CF
0-11000000
Team10-36364104054
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. HolmesC. Holmes★SP
5.2422351
T. MyersT. MyersRP
1.1000030
B. RaleyB. RaleyRP
1.0100000
D. WilliamsD. WilliamsRP
1.0000010
Team9.0522391
STL

STL

2-2

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WetherholtJ. Wetherholt★2B
0-33100010
SPRINT27.560
I. HerreraI. Herrera★DH
1-44010000
SPRINT25.513
A. BurlesonA. Burleson★1B
2-44021001
SPRINT25.513
M. WinnM. Winn★SS
0-33000011
N. GormanN. Gorman★3B
1-44111101
SPRINT257
J. WalkerJ. Walker★RF
1-33010010
SPRINT28.891
N. ChurchN. Church★LF
0-44000002
P. PagesP. Pages★C
0-33000001
V. Scott IIV. Scott II★CF
0-33000003
Team5-3131252139
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. LeahyK. Leahy★SP
5.0844210
M. SvansonM. SvansonRP
2.0100230
G. SorianoG. SorianoRP
2.0100100
Team9.01044540

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYM

  • C. Holmes
    90 pitches·36% CSW
    • SI
      42%·93.9 mph·7% whiff
    • CH
      20%·89.4 mph·55% whiff
    • ST
      17%·82.0 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      16%·87.9 mph·44% whiff
    • CU
      6%·81.9 mph·— whiff
  • B. Raley
    17 pitches·29% CSW
    • ST
      59%·80.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      24%·91.0 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      12%·86.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·85.5 mph·— whiff
  • T. Myers
    14 pitches·50% CSW
    • FF
      36%·92.2 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      29%·80.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      21%·81.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      14%·86.9 mph·100% whiff
  • D. Williams
    12 pitches·58% CSW
    • CH
      50%·84.9 mph·75% whiff
    • FF
      50%·94.1 mph·33% whiff

STL

  • K. Leahy
    79 pitches·14% CSW
    • FF
      33%·94.1 mph·7% whiff
    • CU
      19%·82.5 mph·13% whiff
    • CH
      13%·87.7 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      13%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      11%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      11%·84.9 mph·17% whiff
  • M. Svanson
    36 pitches·17% CSW
    • ST
      44%·86.2 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      39%·95.7 mph·17% whiff
    • FC
      17%·90.9 mph·50% whiff
  • G. Soriano
    21 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      33%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      29%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      24%·87.1 mph·75% whiff
    • ST
      10%·86.5 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      5%·95.9 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

5

4

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Current series

STL wins series 2-1

Mar 30NYMNYM4@STLSTL2today
Mar 31NYMNYM0@STLSTL3
Apr 1NYMNYM1@STLSTL2

Season series

NYM lead series 1-0

Mar 30NYMNYM4@STLSTL2today
Mar 31NYMNYM0@STLSTL3
Apr 1NYMNYM1@STLSTL2
Jun 9STLSTL@NYMNYMupcoming
Jun 10STLSTL@NYMNYMupcoming
Jun 11STLSTL@NYMNYMupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYM -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NYMNYM-15661%
STLSTL+12944%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYM ↔ STL

Biggest swing: 14pp · Top 6th Inning

NYMNYM
C. Benge

C. Benge

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.000 OPS

C. Holmes

C. Holmes

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

STLSTL
N. Gorman

N. Gorman

3B

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

K. Leahy

K. Leahy

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 1 K · 4 ER · 8 H · 2 BB

How it ended

NYM beat STL 4-2.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

STL vs NYM

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYMTop 4th Inning · 1-1
+12pp→ 54% WP

Polanco · hit a ground rule double.

NYMTop 5th Inning · 2-1
+14pp→ 63% WP

Bichette · singled to right, Benge scored, Soto to third.

NYMTop 6th Inning · 3-1
+14pp→ 82% WP

Young · doubled to right, Baty scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYM1000120004
STL1000010002

Period scoring

NYM won 2 · STL won 0

1
1

Inn 1

Bichette 1

Burleson 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

1
0

Inn 5

Bichette 1

2
1

Inn 6

Young 1

Gorman 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

NYM
STL

Play-by-play · 550 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    NYM 4·STL 2

  2. B9

    ·

    NYM 4·STL 2

  3. B9

    Church struck out swinging.

    ·

    NYM 4·STL 2

    −1pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    NYM 4·STL 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYM 4·STL 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    NYM 4·STL 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    NYM 4·STL 2

  8. B9

    Devin Williams pitches to Nathan Church

    ·

    NYM 4·STL 2

  9. B9

    ·

    NYM 4·STL 2

  10. B9

    Walker fouled out to first.

    ·

    NYM 4·STL 2

    −3pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYM 4·STL 2

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYM 4·STL 2

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    NYM 4·STL 2

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    NYM 4·STL 2

  15. B9

    Devin Williams pitches to Jordan Walker

    ·

    NYM 4·STL 2

  16. B9

    ·

    NYM 4·STL 2

  17. B9

    Gorman popped out to third.

    ·

    NYM 4·STL 2

    −4pp

  18. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYM 4·STL 2

  19. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    NYM 4·STL 2

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    NYM 4·STL 2

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYM 4·STL 2

  22. B9

    Devin Williams pitches to Nolan Gorman

    ·

    NYM 4·STL 2

  23. B9

    Williams relieved Raley

    ·

    NYM 4·STL 2

  24. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    NYM 4·STL 2

  25. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    NYM 4·STL 2

  26. T9

    ·

    NYM 4·STL 2

  27. T9

    Robert Jr. grounded out to third.

    ·

    NYM 4·STL 2

  28. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYM 4·STL 2

  29. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    NYM 4·STL 2

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    NYM 4·STL 2

Team stats

NYM

Away

Stat

STL

Home

4

Runs

2

10

Hits

5

0

Errors

0

15

TB

9

0

HR

1

5

BB

3

4

K

9

23

LOB

12

Betting line

NYM -1.5·O/U 9·NYM -156/STL +129

DraftKings · via ESPN

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 5, 26sim 97
    215
    26(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 1, 26sim 97
    211
    24(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 31, 26sim 94
    210
    24(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 5, 26sim 94
    219
    26(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 11, 26sim 94
    281
    6(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 3, 26sim 94
    212
    26(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

STL vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

117

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    5.5± 3.2low
  • Christian ScottNYM
    5.0± 3.1low

Hits

  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    1.2± 1.1low
  • Bo BichetteNYM
    1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.7± 2.7high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    2.2± 2.6low
  • Ivan HerreraSTL
    1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    0.6± 1.2low

Earned runs

  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    2.8± 2.9low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    2.8± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.2%

ensemble · NYM favored

  • Elo Static

    51.3%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    48.8%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    51.9%

    P(STL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.34 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Luis Robert Jr.NYM · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Jordan WalkerSTL · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Nathan ChurchSTL · LF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Marcus SemienNYM · 2B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Masyn WinnSTL · SS
    SPRINT2872