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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1CIN
CIN

CIN

12-8

2
1
MIN

MIN

11-9

Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota
31,220 attended

Line movement

13 snapshots

MIN spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

MIN no-vig %

60.3%

open 60.3%

-1.0-2.0MIN SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL64.3%56.3%MIN NO-VIG %May 2, 9 AMMay 29, 6 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

CIN 2 · MIN 1 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CIN +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CIN0002000002
MIN0000100001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

54%Last 7 · 55-46
61%Last 30 · 318-205
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+141

Close price

+141

Open no-vig

39.7%

Close no-vig

39.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 968 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 10, 26sim 96
    280
    6(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 2, 26sim 95
    220
    28(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 6, 26sim 95
    24
    6(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 95
    111
    21(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 31, 26sim 95
    210
    24(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 11, 26sim 95
    281
    6(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Fri, Apr 17·Final/SeriesCIN wins series 3-0/VegasMIN -171

Recap · MLB

Cincinnati Reds went into Minnesota Twins and beat them, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.

CIN +1.5 cashed (MIN lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 5.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CIN · top performer

CIN
Eugenio Suarez

Eugenio Suarez

DH

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

2

RBI

MIN · top performer

MIN
Austin Martin

Austin Martin

LF

1.167OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Cincinnati Reds at Minnesota Twins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CIN12-8
2
1
MIN11-9
CIN12-8·MIN11-9
CIN

CIN

12-8

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. FriedlT. Friedl★CF
0-44000001
SPRINT26.838
M. McLainM. McLain★2B
0-44000003
SPRINT28.586
E. De La CruzE. De La Cruz★SS
1-33110010
SPRINT2872
S. StewartS. Stewart★1B
1-44110001
SPRINT26.530
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
2-44022001
SPRINT25.818
N. LoweN. Lowe★DH
0-33000001
S. SteerS. Steer★LF
0-33000000
W. BensonW. Benson★RF
0-22000000
T. StephensonT. Stephenson★C
0-33000001
D. MyersD. MyersCF
0-11000000
Team4-3131242018
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. WilliamsonB. Williamson★SP
5.1311420
C. PhillipsC. PhillipsRP
0.2000010
G. AshcraftG. AshcraftRP
1.0100100
T. SantillanT. SantillanRP
1.0100000
E. PaganE. PaganRP
1.0000010
Team9.0511540
MIN

MIN

11-9

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. BuxtonB. Buxton★CF
1-44010010
SPRINT29.597
A. MartinA. Martin★LF
1-22011010
SPRINT27.867
L. KeaschallL. Keaschall★2B
0-44000001
R. JeffersR. Jeffers★C
1-44010000
SPRINT26.326
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
2-44020000
SPRINT25.18
V. CaratiniV. Caratini★C
0-44000001
M. WallnerM. Wallner★RF
0-33000001
B. LeeB. Lee★SS
0-33100010
SPRINT26.428
R. KreidlerR. Kreidler★CF
0-11000010
T. GrayT. Gray3B
0-11000001
Team5-3030151054
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. RyanJ. Ryan★SP
6.0321060
J. TopaJ. TopaRP
1.0100000
K. FunderburkK. FunderburkRP
1.0000000
C. SandsC. SandsRP
1.0000120
Team9.0421180

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CIN

  • T. Santillan
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • FF
      50%·93.3 mph·50% whiff
    • SV
      50%·83.5 mph·0% whiff

MIN

  • C. Sands
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • FC
      25%·86.9 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      25%·91.7 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      17%·80.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      17%·92.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      17%·86.0 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Topa
    10 pitches·50% CSW
    • SI
      70%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      20%·86.4 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      10%·89.9 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Funderburk
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • SI
      30%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      30%·80.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·86.9 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      10%·87.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      10%·91.0 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

5

2

Runs

1

0

Errors

1

Current series

CIN wins series 3-0

Apr 18CINCIN2@MINMIN1today
Apr 18CINCIN5@MINMIN4
Apr 19CINCIN7@MINMIN4

Season series

CIN leads series 1-0

Apr 18CINCIN2@MINMIN1today
Apr 18CINCIN5@MINMIN4
Apr 19CINCIN7@MINMIN4

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CINCIN+14141%
MINMIN-17163%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗

Line movement · 13 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCIN ↔ MIN

Biggest swing: 19pp · Top 4th Inning

CINCIN
E. Suarez

E. Suarez

DH

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

B. Williamson

B. Williamson

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 2 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 4 BB

MINMIN
A. Martin

A. Martin

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.167 OPS

J. Ryan

J. Ryan

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 3 H

How it ended

CIN beat MIN 2-1. Biggest WP swing of the night came in the top 4th inning (19pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

MIN vs CIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CINTop 4th Inning · 2-0
+19pp→ 61% WP

Suárez doubled to center, De La Cruz scored and Stewart scored.

MINBottom 5th Inning · 2-0
+11pp→ 63% WP

Buxton · walked, Kreidler to second, Lee to third.

CINTop 6th Inning · 2-1
+18pp→ 56% WP

McLain · flied out to right.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CIN0002000002
MIN0000100001

Period scoring

CIN won 1 · MIN won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

2
0

Inn 4

0
1

Inn 5

Martin 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

CIN
MIN

Play-by-play · 539 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CIN 2·MIN 1

  2. B9

    ·

    CIN 2·MIN 1

  3. B9

    Buxton grounded out to second.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CIN 2·MIN 1

    −5pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CIN 2·MIN 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    ·

    CIN 2·MIN 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    CIN 2·MIN 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CIN 2·MIN 1

  8. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    CIN 2·MIN 1

  9. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    CIN 2·MIN 1

  10. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CIN 2·MIN 1

  11. B9

    Emilio Pagan pitches to Byron Buxton

    ·

    CIN 2·MIN 1

  12. B9

    ·

    CIN 2·MIN 1

  13. B9

    Gray struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CIN 2·MIN 1

    −6pp

  14. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CIN 2·MIN 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CIN 2·MIN 1

  16. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    CIN 2·MIN 1

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CIN 2·MIN 1

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CIN 2·MIN 1

  19. B9

    Emilio Pagan pitches to Tristan Gray

    ·

    CIN 2·MIN 1

  20. B9

    ·

    CIN 2·MIN 1

  21. B9

    Lee popped out to second.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CIN 2·MIN 1

    −9pp

  22. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CIN 2·MIN 1

  23. B9

    Emilio Pagan pitches to Brooks Lee

    ·

    CIN 2·MIN 1

  24. B9

    Pagán relieved Santillan

    ·

    CIN 2·MIN 1

  25. B9

    Hayes at third base.

    CIN 2·MIN 1

  26. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    CIN 2·MIN 1

  27. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    CIN 2·MIN 1

  28. T9

    · ·

    CIN 2·MIN 1

  29. T9

    Suárez struck out looking.

    · ·

    CIN 2·MIN 1

    +2pp

  30. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    CIN 2·MIN 1

Team stats

CIN

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

2

Runs

1

4

Hits

5

0

Errors

1

6

TB

5

0

HR

0

1

BB

5

8

K

4

10

LOB

17

Betting line

MIN -1.5·O/U 8.5·CIN +141/MIN -171

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

MIN vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.5± 3.8low
  • Joe RyanMIN
    5.9± 3.1low

Hits

  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.3± 1.3low
  • Sal StewartCIN
    1.1± 1.3high
  • Orlando ArciaMIN
    1.1± 1.4low

Total bases

  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.5± 2.7high
  • Elly De La CruzCIN
    1.9± 2.3high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    1.9± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Tyler StephensonCIN
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Elly De La CruzCIN
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Simeon Woods RichardsonMIN
    3.6± 3.0low
  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.4± 3.6low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.3± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

47.4%

ensemble · CIN favored

  • Elo Static

    49.4%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.2%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    48.7%

    P(MIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.97 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Byron BuxtonMIN · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Luke KeaschallMIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • Matt McLainCIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Spencer SteerCIN · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Elly De La CruzCIN · SS
    SPRINT2872