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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3STL
NYM

NYM

3-2

0
3
STL

STL

3-2

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri
22,823 attended

Line movement

8 snapshots

STL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

STL no-vig %

42.3%

open 42.3%

+2.0+1.0STL SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL46.3%38.3%STL NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = STL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

NYM 0 · STL 3 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked STL +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYM0000000000
STL002000103

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+126

Close price

+126

Open no-vig

42.3%

Close no-vig

42.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 1, 26sim 97
    211
    24(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 18, 26sim 95
    172
    9(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 5, 26sim 95
    215
    26(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 10, 26sim 95
    280
    6(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 30, 26sim 94
    214
    24(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 14, 26sim 94
    71
    6(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, Mar 31·Final/SeriesSTL wins series 2-1/VegasNYM -153

Recap · MLB

St. Louis Cardinals held off New York Mets, 3–0.

STL +1.5 cashed (NYM lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 5.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYM · top performer

NYM
Juan Soto

Juan Soto

LF

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

STL · top performer

STL
Ramon Urias

Ramon Urias

3B

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
NYM3-2
0
3
STL3-2
NYM3-2·STL3-2
NYM

NYM

3-2

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. LindorF. Lindor★SS
0-33000010
SPRINT26.941
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
2-44020001
SPRINT25.513
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
0-33000010
SPRINT25.716
L. Robert Jr.L. Robert Jr.★CF
0-33000010
SPRINT2993
J. YoungJ. Young★1B
1-44010001
SPRINT27.354
M. VientosM. Vientos★1B
0-22000000
M. SemienM. Semien★2B
0-22000011
C. BengeC. Benge★RF
0-33000001
L. TorrensL. Torrens★C
0-22000001
B. BatyB. Baty3B
0-22000000
F. AlvarezF. AlvarezC
0-11000000
Team3-2929030045
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. SengaK. Senga★SP
6.0422390
R. LoveladyR. LoveladyRP
2.0211121
Team8.06334111
STL

STL

3-2

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WetherholtJ. Wetherholt★2B
2-44120002
SPRINT27.560
I. HerreraI. Herrera★DH
1-22012021
SPRINT25.513
A. BurlesonA. Burleson★1B
0-22000020
SPRINT25.513
M. WinnM. Winn★SS
0-44000000
N. GormanN. Gorman★3B
0-44000002
J. WalkerJ. Walker★RF
0-44000002
N. ChurchN. Church★LF
0-44000003
R. UriasR. Urias★3B
1-33111101
SPRINT26.735
V. Scott IIV. Scott II★CF
2-33120000
SPRINT29.798
Team6-30303631411
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. PallanteA. Pallante★SP
5.0300330
G. GraceffoG. GraceffoRP
1.0000000
R. StanekR. StanekRP
1.0000110
J. RomeroJ. RomeroRP
1.0000010
R. O'BrienR. O'BrienRP
1.0000000
Team9.0300450

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYM

  • K. Senga
    92 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      39%·97.4 mph·26% whiff
    • FC
      26%·90.5 mph·10% whiff
    • FO
      16%·84.1 mph·67% whiff
    • ST
      11%·80.8 mph·75% whiff
    • SI
      3%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      3%·85.4 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      1%·66.9 mph·— whiff
  • R. Lovelady
    29 pitches·31% CSW
    • ST
      45%·81.4 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      41%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      7%·92.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      7%·82.6 mph·0% whiff

STL

  • A. Pallante
    88 pitches·27% CSW
    • SL
      31%·88.0 mph·42% whiff
    • FF
      26%·95.4 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      23%·94.9 mph·20% whiff
    • KC
      14%·77.9 mph·20% whiff
    • FS
      7%·89.0 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Stanek
    22 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      45%·98.6 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      27%·89.8 mph·100% whiff
    • FS
      23%·89.6 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      5%·97.7 mph·— whiff
  • J. Romero
    13 pitches·46% CSW
    • ST
      46%·83.6 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      31%·93.9 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      23%·87.4 mph·0% whiff
  • R. O'Brien
    11 pitches·18% CSW
    • SI
      55%·99.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      27%·92.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      18%·83.9 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Graceffo
    3 pitches·33% CSW
    • CU
      67%·83.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      33%·88.4 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

3

Hits

6

0

Runs

3

0

Errors

0

Current series

STL wins series 2-1

Mar 30NYMNYM4@STLSTL2
Mar 31NYMNYM0@STLSTL3today
Apr 1NYMNYM1@STLSTL2

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Mar 30NYMNYM4@STLSTL2
Mar 31NYMNYM0@STLSTL3today
Apr 1NYMNYM1@STLSTL2
Jun 9STLSTL@NYMNYMupcoming
Jun 10STLSTL@NYMNYMupcoming
Jun 11STLSTL@NYMNYMupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYM -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYMNYM-15360%
STLSTL+12644%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYM ↔ STL

Biggest swing: 15pp · Bottom 6th Inning

NYMNYM
J. Soto

J. Soto

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

K. Senga

K. Senga

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 9 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

STLSTL
R. Urias

R. Urias

3B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

A. Pallante

A. Pallante

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

How it ended

STL beat NYM 3-0.

Win probability

STL vs NYM

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
STLBottom 3rd Inning · 0-2
+12pp→ 80% WP

Herrera · doubled to left, Scott II scored and Wetherholt scored.

NYMTop 6th Inning · 0-2
+9pp→ 32% WP

Soto · doubled to right.

STLBottom 6th Inning · 0-2
+15pp→ 84% WP

Gorman · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYM0000000000
STL00200010—3

Period scoring

NYM won 0 · STL won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
2

Inn 3

Herrera 2

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
1

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

NYM
STL

Play-by-play · 507 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    NYM 0·STL 3

  2. T9

    Baty grounded out to first.

    ·

    NYM 0·STL 3

  3. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYM 0·STL 3

  4. T9

    Riley O'Brien pitches to Brett Baty

    ·

    NYM 0·STL 3

  5. T9

    ·

    NYM 0·STL 3

  6. T9

    Young grounded out to second.

    ·

    NYM 0·STL 3

    +0.8pp

  7. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYM 0·STL 3

  8. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    NYM 0·STL 3

  9. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYM 0·STL 3

  10. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYM 0·STL 3

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    NYM 0·STL 3

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYM 0·STL 3

  13. T9

    Riley O'Brien pitches to Jared Young

    ·

    NYM 0·STL 3

  14. T9

    ·

    NYM 0·STL 3

  15. T9

    Robert Jr. flied out to second.

    ·

    NYM 0·STL 3

    +2pp

  16. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYM 0·STL 3

  17. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    NYM 0·STL 3

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYM 0·STL 3

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    NYM 0·STL 3

  20. T9

    Riley O'Brien pitches to Luis Robert Jr.

    ·

    NYM 0·STL 3

  21. T9

    O'Brien relieved Romero

    ·

    NYM 0·STL 3

  22. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    NYM 0·STL 3

  23. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    NYM 0·STL 3

  24. B8

    ·

    NYM 0·STL 3

  25. B8

    Church popped out to second.

    ·

    NYM 0·STL 3

  26. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYM 0·STL 3

  27. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYM 0·STL 3

  28. B8

    Richard Lovelady pitches to Nathan Church

    ·

    NYM 0·STL 3

  29. B8

    ·

    NYM 0·STL 3

  30. B8

    Walker grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    NYM 0·STL 3

Team stats

NYM

Away

Stat

STL

Home

0

Runs

3

3

Hits

6

0

Errors

0

4

TB

11

0

HR

1

4

BB

4

5

K

11

13

LOB

15

Betting line

NYM -1.5·O/U 8.5·NYM -153/STL +126

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Luis Robert Jr.NYM · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Jordan WalkerSTL · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Nathan ChurchSTL · LF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Marcus SemienNYM · 2B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Masyn WinnSTL · SS
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

STL vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

117

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    5.7± 3.3low
  • Christian ScottNYM
    5.0± 3.1low

Hits

  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    1.2± 1.1low
  • Bo BichetteNYM
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.8± 2.6high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    2.2± 2.6low
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    1.9± 2.2high

RBIs

  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Bo BichetteNYM
    0.7± 1.5high

Earned runs

  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    2.8± 2.9low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    2.8± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · NYM favored

  • Elo Static

    50.1%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.6%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.3%

    P(STL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.07 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.