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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1DET
KC

KC

7-10

1
2
DET

DET

8-9

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan
16,655 attended

Line movement

6 snapshots

DET spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

DET no-vig %

53.7%

open 53.7%

+2.0+1.0DET SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL57.7%49.7%DET NO-VIG %MODEL 50.4%May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 2 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = DET favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

KC 1 · DET 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked DET +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
KC0100000001
DET000000022

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 15, 26sim 98
    71
    6(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 10, 26sim 97
    111
    1(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 22, 26sim 97
    241
    28(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 10, 26sim 97
    114
    21(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 10, 26sim 96
    121
    4(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 1, 26sim 95
    211
    24(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, Apr 14·Final/SeriesDET wins series 3-0/VegasDET -128

Recap · MLB

Detroit Tigers held off Kansas City Royals, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.

DET +1.5 cashed (KC lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 5.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

KC · top performer

KC
Lane Thomas

Lane Thomas

CF

0.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

DET · top performer

DET
Matt Vierling

Matt Vierling

CF

1.167OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
KC7-10
1
2
DET8-9
KC7-10·DET8-9
KC

KC

7-10

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
1-44010001
SPRINT27.765
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
1-44010001
SPRINT30.399+
L. ThomasL. Thomas★CF
1-33010010
SPRINT28.688
S. PerezS. Perez★C
1-44010000
SPRINT241
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
0-44100001
SPRINT25.411
S. MarteS. Marte★RF
1-44010000
J. IndiaJ. India★2B
0-22000010
C. JensenC. Jensen★C
0-33001000
I. CollinsI. Collins★LF
0-00000000
T. TolbertT. Tolbert2B
0-22000000
K. IsbelK. IsbelCF
0-11000001
Team5-3131151024
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. RagansC. Ragans★SP
6.0100410
M. StrahmM. StrahmRP
1.0100110
N. MearsN. MearsRP
1.0222100
Team8.0422620
DET

DET

8-9

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. TorresG. Torres★2B
0-44000000
SPRINT25.18
M. VierlingM. Vierling★CF
1-22010010
SPRINT28.483
K. McGonigleK. McGonigle★SS
0-22100020
SPRINT28.278
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
2-44021000
SPRINT27.765
W. PerezW. Perez★RF
0-33000010
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
0-33000001
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
0-11000021
J. BaezJ. Baez★SS
0-33000000
Z. McKinstryZ. McKinstry★2B
1-33110000
SPRINT26.941
C. KeithC. Keith3B
0-11000000
Team4-2626241062
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
F. ValdezF. Valdez★SP
7.0411210
W. VestW. VestRP
1.0000030
K. JansenK. JansenRP
1.0100000
Team9.0511240

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

KC

  • C. Ragans
    93 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      48%·94.4 mph·5% whiff
    • CH
      22%·83.9 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      11%·89.8 mph·50% whiff
    • KC
      10%·79.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      10%·85.7 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Strahm
    24 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      46%·91.9 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      21%·92.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      21%·80.6 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      13%·83.0 mph·0% whiff
  • N. Mears
    18 pitches·11% CSW
    • CH
      33%·84.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      28%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      17%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      17%·83.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      6%·80.6 mph·— whiff

DET

  • F. Valdez
    87 pitches·21% CSW
    • SI
      59%·94.1 mph·7% whiff
    • CU
      31%·78.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      9%·89.6 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      1%·86.3 mph·— whiff
  • K. Jansen
    15 pitches·33% CSW
    • FC
      73%·95.1 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      20%·86.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      7%·96.3 mph·0% whiff
  • W. Vest
    13 pitches·46% CSW
    • FF
      54%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      31%·87.4 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      8%·89.1 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      8%·95.5 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

4

1

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Current series

DET wins series 3-0

Apr 14KCKC1@DETDET2today
Apr 15KCKC1@DETDET2
Apr 16KCKC9@DETDET10

Season series

DET leads series 1-0

Apr 14KCKC1@DETDET2today
Apr 15KCKC1@DETDET2
Apr 16KCKC9@DETDET10
May 8DETDET3@KCKC4
May 9DETDET1@KCKC5
May 10DETDET6@KCKC3
Jul 23KCKC@DETDETupcoming
Jul 24KCKC@DETDETupcoming
Jul 25KCKC@DETDETupcoming
Jul 26KCKC@DETDETupcoming
Aug 22DETDET@KCKCupcoming
Aug 22DETDET@KCKCupcoming
Aug 23DETDET@KCKCupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

KC -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

KCKC+10748%
DETDET-12856%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet KC -1.5↗SpreadBet KC -1.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowKC ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 30pp · Bottom 8th Inning

KCKC
L. Thomas

L. Thomas

CF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.833 OPS

C. Ragans

C. Ragans

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 1 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 4 BB

DETDET
M. Vierling

M. Vierling

CF

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.167 OPS

F. Valdez

F. Valdez

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 1 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

How it ended

DET beat KC 2-1. Dingler's play in the bottom 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (30pp).

Win probability

DET vs KC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
DETBottom 8th Inning · 1-0
+18pp→ 51% WP

McKinstry · doubled to right.

DETBottom 8th Inning · 1-2
+30pp→ 87% WP

Dingler · doubled to left, McGonigle scored.

DETTop 9th Inning · 1-2
+20pp→ 89% WP

Pasquantino · grounded out to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
KC0100000001
DET00000002—2

Period scoring

KC won 1 · DET won 1

0
0

Inn 1

1
0

Inn 2

Jensen 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
2

Inn 8

McGonigle 1

0

Inn 9

KC
DET

Play-by-play · 494 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    KC 1·DET 2

  2. T9

    Marte flied out to center.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    KC 1·DET 2

    +11pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    KC 1·DET 2

  4. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    KC 1·DET 2

  5. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    KC 1·DET 2

  6. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    KC 1·DET 2

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    KC 1·DET 2

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    KC 1·DET 2

  9. T9

    Kenley Jansen pitches to Starling Marte

    · ·

    KC 1·DET 2

  10. T9

    · ·

    KC 1·DET 2

  11. T9

    Pasquantino grounded out to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    KC 1·DET 2

    +20pp

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    KC 1·DET 2

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    KC 1·DET 2

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    KC 1·DET 2

  15. T9

    Kenley Jansen pitches to Vinnie Pasquantino

    · ·

    KC 1·DET 2

  16. T9

    · ·

    KC 1·DET 2

  17. T9

    Perez grounded out to third, Thomas to third.

    · ·

    KC 1·DET 2

    −4pp

  18. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    KC 1·DET 2

  19. T9

    Thomas stole second.

    ·

    KC 1·DET 2

  20. T9

    Thomas stole second.

    ·

    KC 1·DET 2

  21. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    KC 1·DET 2

  22. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    KC 1·DET 2

  23. T9

    Kenley Jansen pitches to Salvador Perez

    · ·

    KC 1·DET 2

  24. T9

    ·

    KC 1·DET 2

  25. T9

    Thomas singled to center.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    KC 1·DET 2

    −11pp

  26. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    KC 1·DET 2

  27. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    KC 1·DET 2

  28. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    KC 1·DET 2

  29. T9

    Kenley Jansen pitches to Lane Thomas

    ·

    KC 1·DET 2

  30. T9

    Jansen relieved Vest

    ·

    KC 1·DET 2

Team stats

KC

Away

Stat

DET

Home

1

Runs

2

5

Hits

4

0

Errors

0

5

TB

6

0

HR

0

2

BB

6

4

K

2

13

LOB

15

Betting line

KC -1.5·O/U 8·KC +107/DET -128

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

DET vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low
  • Michael WachaKC
    5.4± 2.1low
  • Seth LugoKC
    5.0± 2.1low

Hits

  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.0± 0.9high
  • Riley GreeneDET
    0.9± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Dillon DinglerDET
    1.7± 2.3high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    1.7± 1.5high
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.5± 1.7high

RBIs

  • Dillon DinglerDET
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    0.5± 0.8high
  • Salvador PerezKC
    0.5± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low
  • Framber ValdezDET
    2.7± 3.6low
  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.7%

ensemble · DET favored

  • Elo Static

    52.3%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.0%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.1%

    P(DET win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.39 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Lane ThomasKC · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Matt VierlingDET · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Kevin McGonigleDET · SS
    SPRINT28.278