
NYM
6-4

SF
3-7
Line movement
12 snapshots
SF spread
+1.5
open +1.5
Total
O/U 7.0
open O/U 7.0
SF no-vig %
53.8%
open 53.8%
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SF favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
NYM wins
NYM 5 · SF 2 (by 3)
Model verdict
✗ Missed
Picked SF +1pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 5 |
| SF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Final play
“End of the 9th inning”
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
Recap · MLB
ew York Mets went into San Francisco Giants and beat them, 5–2.
NYM -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total pushed exactly on 7.0.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NYM · top performer

Jared Young
1B
3-3
AB-H
0
R
0
RBI
SF · top performer

Matt Chapman
3B
3-2
AB-H
1
R
1
RBI
MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST


NYM
6-4
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
| 0-5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT25.310 | ||||||||
| 3-5 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT2993 | ||||||||
| 3-3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT27.354 | ||||||||
| 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT25.513 | ||||||||
| 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 0-1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT26.428 | ||||||||
| Team | 13-38 | 38 | 5 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
| 5.2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | |
| 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
SF
3-7
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT26.632 | ||||||||
| 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
SPRINT28.175 | ||||||||
| 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
SPRINT25.716 | ||||||||
| 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT27.251 | ||||||||
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT24.32 | ||||||||
| Team | 7-31 | 31 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
| 7.0 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| 0.1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0.2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 13 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail
Statcast · via Baseball SavantNYM
SF
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
13
Hits
7
5
Runs
2
0
Errors
2
Current series
NYM win series 3-1
Season series
NYM lead series 3-1
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
NYM -1.5
Total
7.0
Defensive · -1.5 vs avg
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 12 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
7.0
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 38pp · Top 8th Inning
J. Young
1BBatter of the gamePerfect day
3-for-3 · 2.000 OPS
K. Senga
SPStarting pitcher
5.2 IP · 7 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 2 BB
M. Chapman
3BBatter of the game
2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.417 OPS
L. Webb
SPStarting pitcherQuality start
7.0 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 7 H · 1 BB
How it ended
NYM beat SF 5-2. Torrens's play in the top 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (38pp).
Last play
End of the 9th inning
Win probability
SF vs NYM
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactChapman · doubled to left, Bailey scored.
Lindor · grounded out to second.
Torrens · doubled to right, Robert Jr. scored and Taylor scored.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 5 |
| SF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Period scoring
NYM won 2 · SF won 1
Inn 1
Inn 2
Vientos 1
Inn 3
Inn 4
Inn 5
Inn 6
Chapman 1
Inn 7
Inn 8
Torrens 2
Inn 9
Play-by-play · 554 plays
End of the 9th inning
NYM 5·SF 2
· ·
NYM 5·SF 2
Lee struck out swinging.
· ·
NYM 5·SF 2
−1pp
Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging
· ·
NYM 5·SF 2
Pitch 6 : Ball 3
· ·
NYM 5·SF 2
Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
NYM 5·SF 2
Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
NYM 5·SF 2
Pitch 3 : Ball 2
· ·
NYM 5·SF 2
Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking
· ·
NYM 5·SF 2
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
NYM 5·SF 2
Devin Williams pitches to Jung Hoo Lee
· ·
NYM 5·SF 2
·
NYM 5·SF 2
Ramos singled to left.
·
NYM 5·SF 2
+0.9pp
Pitch 2 : Ball In Play
·
NYM 5·SF 2
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
·
NYM 5·SF 2
Devin Williams pitches to Heliot Ramos
·
NYM 5·SF 2
·
NYM 5·SF 2
Devers grounded out to second.BIG MOMENT
·
NYM 5·SF 2
−8pp
Pitch 5 : Ball In Play
·
NYM 5·SF 2
Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging
·
NYM 5·SF 2
Chapman caught stealing second, catcher to shortstop.
·
NYM 5·SF 2
Chapman caught stealing second, catcher to shortstop.
·
NYM 5·SF 2
Pitch 3 : Ball 2
· ·
NYM 5·SF 2
Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging
· ·
NYM 5·SF 2
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
NYM 5·SF 2
Devin Williams pitches to Rafael Devers
· ·
NYM 5·SF 2
·
NYM 5·SF 2
Chapman singled to left.
·
NYM 5·SF 2
+4pp
Pitch 7 : Ball In Play
·
NYM 5·SF 2
Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul
·
NYM 5·SF 2
Team stats
NYM
Away
Stat
SF
Home
5
Runs
2
13
Hits
7
0
Errors
2
17
TB
8
0
HR
0
2
BB
2
5
K
8
17
LOB
7
Betting line
NYM -1.5·O/U 7·NYM +107/SF -129
The receipts
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
+107
Close price
+107
Open no-vig
46.2%
Close no-vig
46.2%
Line barely moved · Graded: hit
STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts
3 of 16 players in cohortPlayer projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
123
projections · 66 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
51.0%
ensemble · SF favored
Elo Static
50.6%
P(SF win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
55.1%
P(SF win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.4%
P(SF win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.84 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
88% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Historical comparables
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs