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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3NYM
NYM

NYM

6-4

5
2
SF

SF

3-7

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California
37,079 attended

Line movement

12 snapshots

SF spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.0

open O/U 7.0

SF no-vig %

53.8%

open 53.8%

+2.0+1.0SF SPREADO/U 7.5O/U 6.5TOTAL57.8%49.8%SF NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 29, 4 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SF favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

NYM 5 · SF 2 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SF +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYM0100000405
SF0000020002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Sun, Apr 5·Final/SeriesNYM win series 3-1/VegasSF -129

Recap · MLB

New York Mets went into San Francisco Giants and beat them, 5–2.

NYM -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total pushed exactly on 7.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYM · top performer

NYM
Jared Young

Jared Young

1B

2.000OPS

3-3

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

SF · top performer

SF
Matt Chapman

Matt Chapman

3B

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · New York Mets at San Francisco Giants · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
NYM6-4
5
2
SF3-7
NYM6-4·SF3-7
NYM

NYM

6-4

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. LindorF. Lindor★SS
0-55000001
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
0-44000010
J. PolancoJ. Polanco★1B
2-44020000
SPRINT25.310
L. Robert Jr.L. Robert Jr.★CF
3-55230000
SPRINT2993
J. YoungJ. Young★1B
3-33030000
SPRINT27.354
M. VientosM. Vientos★1B
2-44121000
SPRINT25.513
M. SemienM. Semien★2B
1-44011001
C. BengeC. Benge★RF
0-33000011
F. AlvarezF. Alvarez★C
1-33010002
T. TaylorT. TaylorCF
0-11100000
L. TorrensL. TorrensC
1-22112000
SPRINT26.428
Team13-38385134025
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. SengaK. Senga★SP
5.2522270
H. BrazobanH. BrazobanRP
1.1000000
L. WeaverL. WeaverRP
1.0000000
D. WilliamsD. WilliamsRP
1.0200010
Team9.0722280
SF

SF

3-7

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
0-44000001
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
1-44010000
SPRINT26.632
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
2-33121010
SPRINT28.175
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
1-33011011
SPRINT25.716
H. RamosH. Ramos★LF
1-44010001
SPRINT27.251
J. LeeJ. Lee★RF
0-44000003
J. EncarnacionJ. Encarnacion★RF
1-33010001
H. BaderH. Bader★CF
0-33000001
P. BaileyP. Bailey★C
1-33110000
SPRINT24.32
Team7-3131272028
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. WebbL. Webb★SP
7.0711130
K. WinnK. WinnRP
0.1222000
E. MillerE. MillerRP
0.2322020
J. BrubakerJ. BrubakerRP
1.0100100
Team9.01355250

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYM

  • K. Senga
    88 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      39%·96.0 mph·20% whiff
    • FO
      24%·83.6 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      20%·89.1 mph·30% whiff
    • ST
      11%·79.1 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      5%·90.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      1%·83.9 mph·— whiff
  • D. Williams
    21 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      71%·93.1 mph·29% whiff
    • CH
      29%·85.1 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Weaver
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      67%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      25%·88.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      8%·88.9 mph·— whiff
  • H. Brazoban
    10 pitches·10% CSW
    • SI
      70%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      30%·91.0 mph·0% whiff

SF

  • L. Webb
    92 pitches·22% CSW
    • SI
      35%·92.7 mph·13% whiff
    • CH
      30%·86.4 mph·12% whiff
    • ST
      18%·84.7 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      9%·93.2 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      8%·91.5 mph·20% whiff
  • E. Miller
    24 pitches·38% CSW
    • SI
      38%·97.5 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      29%·85.9 mph·80% whiff
    • CH
      25%·88.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      8%·97.9 mph·— whiff
  • J. Brubaker
    19 pitches·11% CSW
    • SI
      47%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      26%·86.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      16%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      5%·82.0 mph·— whiff
  • K. Winn
    8 pitches·13% CSW
    • FS
      75%·88.6 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      25%·96.8 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

13

Hits

7

5

Runs

2

0

Errors

2

Current series

NYM win series 3-1

Apr 3NYMNYM2@SFSF7
Apr 4NYMNYM10@SFSF3
Apr 5NYMNYM9@SFSF0
Apr 5NYMNYM5@SFSF2today

Season series

NYM lead series 3-1

Apr 3NYMNYM2@SFSF7
Apr 4NYMNYM10@SFSF3
Apr 5NYMNYM9@SFSF0
Apr 5NYMNYM5@SFSF2today
Sep 4SFSF@NYMNYMupcoming
Sep 5SFSF@NYMNYMupcoming
Sep 6SFSF@NYMNYMupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYM -1.5

Total

7.0

Defensive · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NYMNYM+10748%
SFSF-12956%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗

Line movement · 12 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYM ↔ SF

Biggest swing: 38pp · Top 8th Inning

NYMNYM
J. Young

J. Young

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-3 · 2.000 OPS

K. Senga

K. Senga

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 7 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

SFSF
M. Chapman

M. Chapman

3B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.417 OPS

L. Webb

L. Webb

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

How it ended

NYM beat SF 5-2. Torrens's play in the top 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (38pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

SF vs NYM

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SFBottom 6th Inning · 1-1
+19pp→ 55% WP

Chapman · doubled to left, Bailey scored.

SFTop 7th Inning · 1-2
+15pp→ 79% WP

Lindor · grounded out to second.

NYMTop 8th Inning · 3-2
+38pp→ 78% WP

Torrens · doubled to right, Robert Jr. scored and Taylor scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYM0100000405
SF0000020002

Period scoring

NYM won 2 · SF won 1

0
0

Inn 1

1
0

Inn 2

Vientos 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
2

Inn 6

Chapman 1

0
0

Inn 7

4
0

Inn 8

Torrens 2

0
0

Inn 9

NYM
SF

Play-by-play · 554 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    NYM 5·SF 2

  2. B9

    · ·

    NYM 5·SF 2

  3. B9

    Lee struck out swinging.

    · ·

    NYM 5·SF 2

    −1pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    NYM 5·SF 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    · ·

    NYM 5·SF 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYM 5·SF 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYM 5·SF 2

  8. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    NYM 5·SF 2

  9. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    NYM 5·SF 2

  10. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYM 5·SF 2

  11. B9

    Devin Williams pitches to Jung Hoo Lee

    · ·

    NYM 5·SF 2

  12. B9

    ·

    NYM 5·SF 2

  13. B9

    Ramos singled to left.

    ·

    NYM 5·SF 2

    +0.9pp

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYM 5·SF 2

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYM 5·SF 2

  16. B9

    Devin Williams pitches to Heliot Ramos

    ·

    NYM 5·SF 2

  17. B9

    ·

    NYM 5·SF 2

  18. B9

    Devers grounded out to second.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    NYM 5·SF 2

    −8pp

  19. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYM 5·SF 2

  20. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    NYM 5·SF 2

  21. B9

    Chapman caught stealing second, catcher to shortstop.

    ·

    NYM 5·SF 2

  22. B9

    Chapman caught stealing second, catcher to shortstop.

    ·

    NYM 5·SF 2

  23. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    NYM 5·SF 2

  24. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    NYM 5·SF 2

  25. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYM 5·SF 2

  26. B9

    Devin Williams pitches to Rafael Devers

    · ·

    NYM 5·SF 2

  27. B9

    ·

    NYM 5·SF 2

  28. B9

    Chapman singled to left.

    ·

    NYM 5·SF 2

    +4pp

  29. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYM 5·SF 2

  30. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYM 5·SF 2

Team stats

NYM

Away

Stat

SF

Home

5

Runs

2

13

Hits

7

0

Errors

2

17

TB

8

0

HR

0

2

BB

2

5

K

8

17

LOB

7

Betting line

NYM -1.5·O/U 7·NYM +107/SF -129

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+107

Close price

+107

Open no-vig

46.2%

Close no-vig

46.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 16 players in cohort
  • Luis Robert Jr.NYM · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Tyrone TaylorNYM · CF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

SF vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 66 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    5.5± 3.2low

Hits

  • Jung Hoo LeeSF
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.7± 2.7high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.3± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low
  • Logan WebbSF
    3.1± 2.6low
  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.0%

ensemble · SF favored

  • Elo Static

    50.6%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    55.1%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.4%

    P(SF win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.84 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Mar 30, 26sim 97
    214
    24(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 11, 26sim 97
    281
    6(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 31, 26sim 95
    210
    24(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 5, 26sim 95
    219
    26(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 1, 26sim 94
    211
    24(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 9, 26sim 94
    121
    4(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs