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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2NYM
PIT

PIT

0-2

2
4
NYM

NYM

2-0

Citi Field · Queens, New York
37,183 attended

Line movement

6 snapshots

NYM spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

NYM no-vig %

60.8%

open 60.8%

-1.0-2.0NYM SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL64.8%56.8%NYM NO-VIG %May 4, 11 AMMay 30, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYM favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

PIT 2 · NYM 4 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYM +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team1234567891011R
PIT000000000112
NYM000000000134

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+144

Close price

+144

Open no-vig

39.2%

Close no-vig

39.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 4, 26sim 97
    12
    23(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 29, 26sim 97
    234
    21(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 3, 26sim 96
    240
    6(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 95
    262
    1(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 7, 26sim 95
    13
    28(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 28, 26sim 95
    260
    22(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sat, Mar 28·Final/SeriesNYM win series 2-1/VegasNYM -175

Recap · MLB

New York Mets held off Pittsburgh Pirates, 4–2.

NYM -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PIT · top performer

PIT
Bryan Reynolds

Bryan Reynolds

LF

0.900OPS

5-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

NYM · top performer

NYM
Mark Vientos

Mark Vientos

1B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Mets · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/11
PIT0-2
2
4
NYM2-0
PIT0-2·NYM2-0
PIT

PIT

0-2

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. TrioloJ. Triolo★3B
1-66010000
SPRINT28.483
R. O'HearnR. O'Hearn★RF
1-55010010
SPRINT26.735
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
2-55121012
SPRINT27.969
M. OzunaM. Ozuna★DH
1-55010010
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
2-66021003
SPRINT28.586
B. LoweB. Lowe★2B
1-55010001
N. YorkeN. Yorke★3B
1-55010001
J. BartJ. Bart★C
1-33010001
J. MangumJ. Mangum★LF
2-55120000
SPRINT2993
O. CruzO. CruzCF
0-11000001
Team12-46462122049
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. KellerM. Keller★SP
6.0300030
J. LawrenceJ. LawrenceRP
0.2000220
G. SotoG. SotoRP
1.1000130
D. SantanaD. SantanaRP
1.0000100
H. BarcoH. BarcoRP
1.0342101
Team10.0642581
NYM

NYM

2-0

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. LindorF. Lindor★SS
0-55000001
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
1-55010000
SPRINT25.513
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
1-55110002
SPRINT25.716
J. PolancoJ. Polanco★1B
0-22100030
L. Robert Jr.L. Robert Jr.★CF
1-44113110
SPRINT2993
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
1-44110001
SPRINT26.735
M. SemienM. Semien★2B
0-33000001
C. BengeC. Benge★RF
0-33000002
F. AlvarezF. Alvarez★C
0-22000011
M. VientosM. Vientos1B
1-11010000
L. TorrensL. TorrensC
1-11011000
SPRINT26.428
Team6-3535464158
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. PetersonD. Peterson★SP
5.1600230
H. BrazobanH. BrazobanRP
0.2000010
L. WeaverL. WeaverRP
1.0100000
B. RaleyB. RaleyRP
1.0000020
D. WilliamsD. WilliamsRP
1.0100120
L. GarciaL. GarciaRP
1.0210100
R. LoveladyR. LoveladyRP
1.0210010
Team11.01220490

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PIT

  • M. Keller
    77 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      34%·92.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      27%·91.4 mph·11% whiff
    • ST
      21%·81.7 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      10%·88.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      6%·77.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      1%·86.1 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Soto
    27 pitches·30% CSW
    • SI
      33%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      30%·96.6 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      19%·82.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      19%·82.1 mph·100% whiff
  • H. Barco
    24 pitches·21% CSW
    • SL
      46%·82.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      33%·86.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      13%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      4%·84.1 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      4%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Lawrence
    23 pitches·30% CSW
    • ST
      48%·81.7 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      43%·93.2 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      9%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Santana
    18 pitches·17% CSW
    • SL
      44%·83.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      22%·85.5 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      22%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      11%·91.3 mph·50% whiff

NYM

  • D. Peterson
    76 pitches·26% CSW
    • SI
      46%·90.0 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      24%·85.3 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      12%·80.5 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      12%·85.3 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      7%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Lovelady
    21 pitches·33% CSW
    • ST
      57%·81.1 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      24%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      19%·91.4 mph·50% whiff
  • D. Williams
    19 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      53%·93.0 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      47%·85.4 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Garcia
    19 pitches·26% CSW
    • SI
      58%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      32%·85.5 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      11%·80.2 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Weaver
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • CH
      44%·85.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      44%·93.1 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      13%·90.2 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Raley
    11 pitches·45% CSW
    • ST
      64%·79.8 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      18%·84.8 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      18%·85.5 mph·100% whiff
  • H. Brazoban
    4 pitches·50% CSW
    • CH
      50%·87.5 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      25%·89.3 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      25%·94.2 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

6

2

Runs

4

0

Errors

1

Current series

NYM win series 2-1

Mar 26PITPIT7@NYMNYM11
Mar 28PITPIT2@NYMNYM4today
Mar 29PITPIT4@NYMNYM3

Season series

NYM lead series 2-0

Mar 26PITPIT7@NYMNYM11
Mar 28PITPIT2@NYMNYM4today
Mar 29PITPIT4@NYMNYM3
Aug 7NYMNYM@PITPITupcoming
Aug 8NYMNYM@PITPITupcoming
Aug 9NYMNYM@PITPITupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYM -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PITPIT+14441%
NYMNYM-17564%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPIT ↔ NYM

Biggest swing: 48pp · Bottom 11th Inning

PITPIT
B. Reynolds

B. Reynolds

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-5 · 1 R · 0.900 OPS

M. Keller

M. Keller

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 3 H

NYMNYM
M. Vientos

M. Vientos

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

D. Peterson

D. Peterson

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

How it ended

NYM beat PIT 4-2. Robert Jr.'s play in the bottom 11th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (48pp).

Win probability

NYM vs PIT

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10I11

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PITTop 10th Inning · 1-0
+26pp→ 64% WP

Gonzales · singled to center, Reynolds scored.

PITTop 11th Inning · 2-1
+27pp→ 56% WP

Reynolds · reached on infield single to third, Mangum scored.

NYMBottom 11th Inning · 2-4
+48pp→ 100% WP

Robert Jr. · homered to left center, Bichette scored and Polanco scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team1234567891011R
PIT000000000112
NYM000000000134

Period scoring

PIT won 0 · NYM won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

1
1

Inn 10

Gonzales 1

Torrens 1

1
3

Inn 11

Reynolds 1

Jr. 3

PIT
NYM

Play-by-play · 676 plays

period
event
player
  1. B11

    ·

    PIT 2·NYM 4

  2. B11

    Robert Jr. homered to left center, Bichette scored and Polanco scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    PIT 2·NYM 4

    +48pp

  3. B11

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PIT 2·NYM 4

  4. B11

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PIT 2·NYM 1

  5. B11

    Hunter Barco pitches to Luis Robert Jr.

    · ·

    PIT 2·NYM 4

  6. B11

    · ·

    PIT 2·NYM 1

  7. B11

    Polanco walked.

    · ·

    PIT 2·NYM 1

    +4pp

  8. B11

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    · ·

    PIT 2·NYM 1

  9. B11

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    PIT 2·NYM 1

  10. B11

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    PIT 2·NYM 1

  11. B11

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    PIT 2·NYM 1

  12. B11

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PIT 2·NYM 1

  13. B11

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    PIT 2·NYM 1

  14. B11

    Hunter Barco pitches to Jorge Polanco

    ·

    PIT 2·NYM 1

  15. B11

    Bottom of the 11th inning

    PIT 2·NYM 1

  16. M11

    Middle of the 11th inning

    PIT 2·NYM 1

  17. T11

    · ·

    PIT 2·NYM 1

  18. T11

    Gonzales struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    PIT 2·NYM 1

    +8pp

  19. T11

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    PIT 2·NYM 1

  20. T11

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    PIT 2·NYM 1

  21. T11

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PIT 2·NYM 1

  22. T11

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    PIT 2·NYM 1

  23. T11

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PIT 2·NYM 1

  24. T11

    Richard Lovelady pitches to Nick Gonzales

    · ·

    PIT 2·NYM 1

  25. T11

    · ·

    PIT 2·NYM 1

  26. T11

    Ozuna singled to right, Reynolds to third.

    · ·

    PIT 2·NYM 1

    −4pp

  27. T11

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PIT 2·NYM 1

  28. T11

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    PIT 2·NYM 1

  29. T11

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    PIT 2·NYM 1

  30. T11

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PIT 2·NYM 1

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

NYM

Home

2

Runs

4

12

Hits

6

0

Errors

1

13

TB

9

0

HR

1

4

BB

5

9

K

8

32

LOB

24

Betting line

NYM -1.5·O/U 7.5·PIT +144/NYM -175

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

NYM vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

118

projections · 70 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low

Hits

  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.8± 2.6high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    2.1± 1.6high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Bo BichetteNYM
    0.7± 1.5high

Earned runs

  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    2.8± 2.9low
  • Bubba ChandlerPIT
    2.7± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.6%

ensemble · NYM favored

  • Elo Static

    54.9%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    52.6%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.1%

    P(NYM win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.95 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Luis Robert Jr.NYM · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Billy CookPIT · RF
    SPRINT28.992
  • Nick GonzalesPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Carson BengeNYM · RF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Jared TrioloPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.483