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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1PIT
PIT

PIT

1-2

4
3
NYM

NYM

2-1

Citi Field · Queens, New York
36,940 attended

Line movement

8 snapshots

NYM spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

NYM no-vig %

62.2%

open 62.2%

-1.0-2.0NYM SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL66.2%58.2%NYM NO-VIG %May 4, 11 AMMay 29, 5 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYM favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

PIT 4 · NYM 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYM +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team12345678910R
PIT10100000024
NYM01001000013

Final play

“End of the 10th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Mar 28, 26sim 97
    232
    21(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 5, 26sim 97
    245
    6(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 96
    262
    1(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 7, 26sim 95
    13
    28(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 1, 26sim 95
    261
    25(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 5, 26sim 95
    12
    23(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+153

Close price

+153

Open no-vig

37.8%

Close no-vig

37.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Sun, Mar 29·Final/SeriesNYM win series 2-1/VegasNYM -186

Recap · MLB

Pittsburgh Pirates went into New York Mets and beat them, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

PIT +1.5 cashed (NYM lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PIT · top performer

PIT
Brandon Lowe

Brandon Lowe

2B

2.467OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

NYM · top performer

NYM
Luis Robert Jr.

Luis Robert Jr.

CF

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Mets · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/10
PIT1-2
4
3
NYM2-1
PIT1-2·NYM2-1
PIT

PIT

1-2

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
O. CruzO. Cruz★CF
1-44110012
SPRINT28.483
B. LoweB. Lowe★2B
2-33121120
SPRINT27.148
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
0-55100003
SPRINT27.969
R. O'HearnR. O'Hearn★RF
3-55032002
SPRINT26.735
J. TrioloJ. Triolo★3B
0-33000010
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz★1B
0-33000001
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
0-44000011
H. DavisH. Davis★C
1-44011010
SPRINT27.765
J. MangumJ. Mangum★LF
0-44000003
Team7-35354741812
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. MlodzinskiC. Mlodzinski★SP
4.1622080
Y. RamirezY. RamirezRP
1.2000120
M. MontgomeryM. MontgomeryRP
1.0200030
I. MattsonI. MattsonRP
1.0000020
D. SantanaD. SantanaRP
1.0000010
J. UrquidyJ. UrquidyRP
1.0110100
Team10.09322160
NYM

NYM

2-1

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. LindorF. Lindor★SS
2-44120012
SPRINT26.941
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
2-55022003
SPRINT25.513
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
0-55000003
J. PolancoJ. Polanco★1B
0-55000001
L. Robert Jr.L. Robert Jr.★CF
2-33120011
SPRINT2993
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
2-44020002
SPRINT26.735
M. SemienM. Semien★2B
0-33001001
SPRINT28.175
C. BengeC. Benge★RF
0-44000001
L. TorrensL. Torrens★C
1-33010001
J. YoungJ. Young1B
0-11000001
Team9-37373930216
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. McLeanN. McLean★SP
5.0422281
H. BrazobanH. BrazobanRP
1.2000000
S. ManaeaS. ManaeaRP
1.1100220
L. WeaverL. WeaverRP
1.0000210
R. LoveladyR. LoveladyRP
1.0221210
Team10.07438121

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PIT

  • C. Mlodzinski
    85 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      39%·94.4 mph·29% whiff
    • FS
      20%·84.5 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      20%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      18%·83.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      4%·90.4 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Ramirez
    22 pitches·45% CSW
    • ST
      36%·84.0 mph·75% whiff
    • FF
      27%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      23%·95.7 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      14%·84.2 mph·— whiff
  • M. Montgomery
    20 pitches·45% CSW
    • FF
      45%·98.8 mph·56% whiff
    • CU
      35%·87.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      10%·98.9 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      10%·89.2 mph·0% whiff
  • I. Mattson
    13 pitches·46% CSW
    • FF
      77%·94.2 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      15%·87.6 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      8%·83.5 mph·— whiff
  • D. Santana
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      54%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      23%·85.3 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      15%·86.9 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      8%·89.3 mph·100% whiff
  • J. Urquidy
    11 pitches·18% CSW
    • CH
      36%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      27%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      18%·79.4 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      18%·92.2 mph·— whiff

NYM

  • N. McLean
    84 pitches·37% CSW
    • SI
      29%·94.9 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      20%·96.9 mph·13% whiff
    • ST
      17%·84.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·87.1 mph·67% whiff
    • CU
      14%·81.3 mph·80% whiff
    • FC
      6%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Manaea
    29 pitches·31% CSW
    • ST
      48%·75.5 mph·43% whiff
    • FF
      28%·88.7 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      21%·89.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      3%·82.5 mph·— whiff
  • R. Lovelady
    26 pitches·23% CSW
    • SI
      46%·92.1 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      31%·82.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      23%·91.5 mph·67% whiff
  • L. Weaver
    22 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      64%·94.5 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      32%·87.0 mph·67% whiff
    • FC
      5%·88.4 mph·— whiff
  • H. Brazoban
    14 pitches·7% CSW
    • SI
      43%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      29%·89.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      21%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      7%·91.0 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

9

4

Runs

3

1

Errors

1

Current series

NYM win series 2-1

Mar 26PITPIT7@NYMNYM11
Mar 28PITPIT2@NYMNYM4
Mar 29PITPIT4@NYMNYM3today

Season series

NYM lead series 2-1

Mar 26PITPIT7@NYMNYM11
Mar 28PITPIT2@NYMNYM4
Mar 29PITPIT4@NYMNYM3today
Aug 7NYMNYM@PITPITupcoming
Aug 8NYMNYM@PITPITupcoming
Aug 9NYMNYM@PITPITupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYM -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PITPIT+15340%
NYMNYM-18665%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPIT ↔ NYM

Biggest swing: 22pp · Top 10th Inning

PITPIT
B. Lowe

B. Lowe

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.467 OPS

C. Mlodzinski

C. Mlodzinski

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 8 K · 2 ER · 6 H

NYMNYM
L. Robert Jr.

L. Robert Jr.

CF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.417 OPS

N. McLean

N. McLean

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 8 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

How it ended

PIT beat NYM 4-3. Davis's play in the top 10th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (22pp).

Last play

End of the 10th inning

Win probability

NYM vs PIT

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PITTop 10th Inning · 3-2
+19pp→ 65% WP

O'Hearn · singled to center, Reynolds scored.

PITTop 10th Inning · 4-2
+22pp→ 80% WP

Davis · singled to center, Cook scored, Gonzales to third.

PITBottom 10th Inning · 4-3
+18pp→ 100% WP

Polanco · flied out to right.

Linescore (innings)

Team12345678910R
PIT10100000024
NYM01001000013

Period scoring

PIT won 3 · NYM won 2

1
0

Inn 1

O'Hearn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Semien 1

1
0

Inn 3

Lowe 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
1

Inn 5

Soto 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

2
1

Inn 10

O'Hearn 1

Soto 1

PIT
NYM

Play-by-play · 656 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 10

    End of the 10th inning

    PIT 4·NYM 3

  2. B10

    · ·

    PIT 4·NYM 3

  3. B10

    Polanco flied out to right.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    PIT 4·NYM 3

    −18pp

  4. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PIT 4·NYM 3

  5. B10

    Jose Urquidy pitches to Jorge Polanco

    · ·

    PIT 4·NYM 3

  6. B10

    · ·

    PIT 4·NYM 3

  7. B10

    Bichette grounded out to shortstop, Soto to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    PIT 4·NYM 3

    −15pp

  8. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PIT 4·NYM 3

  9. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PIT 4·NYM 3

  10. B10

    Jose Urquidy pitches to Bo Bichette

    · ·

    PIT 4·NYM 3

  11. B10

    ·

    PIT 4·NYM 3

  12. B10

    Soto doubled to center, Alvarez scored, Lindor thrown out at home.

    · ·

    PIT 4·NYM 3

    −2pp

  13. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PIT 4·NYM 3

  14. B10

    Jose Urquidy pitches to Juan Soto

    · ·

    PIT 4·NYM 3

  15. B10

    · ·

    PIT 4·NYM 2

  16. B10

    Lindor walked.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    PIT 4·NYM 2

    +12pp

  17. B10

    Pitch 7 : Ball 4

    · ·

    PIT 4·NYM 2

  18. B10

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    · ·

    PIT 4·NYM 2

  19. B10

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PIT 4·NYM 2

  20. B10

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    PIT 4·NYM 2

  21. B10

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    PIT 4·NYM 2

  22. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    PIT 4·NYM 2

  23. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PIT 4·NYM 2

  24. B10

    Jose Urquidy pitches to Francisco Lindor

    ·

    PIT 4·NYM 2

  25. B10

    Urquidy relieved Santana

    ·

    PIT 4·NYM 2

  26. B10

    Cook in right field.

    PIT 4·NYM 2

  27. B10

    Bottom of the 10th inning

    PIT 4·NYM 2

  28. M10

    Middle of the 10th inning

    PIT 4·NYM 2

  29. T10

    · ·

    PIT 4·NYM 2

  30. T10

    Mangum struck out swinging.

    · ·

    PIT 4·NYM 2

    +3pp

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

NYM

Home

4

Runs

3

7

Hits

9

1

Errors

1

11

TB

12

1

HR

0

8

BB

2

12

K

16

19

LOB

15

Betting line

NYM -1.5·O/U 7.5·PIT +153/NYM -186

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

NYM vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

118

projections · 70 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low

Hits

  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.8± 2.6high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    2.1± 1.6high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Bo BichetteNYM
    0.7± 1.5high

Earned runs

  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    2.8± 2.9low
  • Bubba ChandlerPIT
    2.7± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.8%

ensemble · NYM favored

  • Elo Static

    56.0%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    55.2%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.2%

    P(NYM win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.38 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Luis Robert Jr.NYM · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Billy CookPIT · RF
    SPRINT28.992
  • Carson BengeNYM · RF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Oneil CruzPIT · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Jared TrioloPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.483