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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4BAL
SF

SF

6-10

2
6
BAL

BAL

8-7

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland
24,091 attended

Line movement

12 snapshots

BAL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

BAL no-vig %

53.2%

open 53.2%

+2.0+1.0BAL SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL57.2%49.2%BAL NO-VIG %MODEL 54.0%May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 3 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BAL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

SF 2 · BAL 6 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BAL +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SF0000100012
BAL200021106

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-126

Close price

-126

Open no-vig

53.2%

Close no-vig

53.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Sun, Apr 12·Final/SeriesBAL wins series 2-1/VegasBAL -126

Recap · MLB

Baltimore Orioles held off San Francisco Giants, 6–2.

BAL +1.5 cashed (SF lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SF · top performer

SF
Casey Schmitt

Casey Schmitt

DH

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

BAL · top performer

BAL
Samuel Basallo

Samuel Basallo

C

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · San Francisco Giants at Baltimore Orioles · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SF6-10
2
6
BAL8-7
SF6-10·BAL8-7
SF

SF

6-10

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
1-44010000
SPRINT27.457
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
1-44010003
SPRINT25.716
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
0-44000001
C. SchmittC. Schmitt★DH
3-44231100
SPRINT2872
J. LeeJ. Lee★RF
0-44000000
H. RamosH. Ramos★LF
1-33010001
SPRINT27.251
D. SusacD. Susac★C
1-33011001
J. EncarnacionJ. Encarnacion★RF
0-33000001
C. KossC. Koss★2B
0-33000000
J. OlivaJ. OlivaCF
0-11000000
Team7-3333272107
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. HouserA. Houser★SP
4.2544231
M. GageM. GageRP
0.2111110
R. WalkerR. WalkerRP
0.2311020
E. MillerE. MillerRP
1.0100110
J. BrubakerJ. BrubakerRP
1.0100100
Team8.01166571
BAL

BAL

8-7

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
1-55110001
SPRINT28.175
T. WardT. Ward★LF
2-44220010
SPRINT27.457
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
2-44122010
SPRINT25.29
S. BasalloS. Basallo★C
1-33112110
SPRINT25.310
D. BeaversD. Beavers★RF
0-33000001
L. TaverasL. Taveras★CF
2-44120001
SPRINT2993
C. CowserC. Cowser★CF
1-33011011
C. MayoC. Mayo★3B
1-44011001
J. JacksonJ. Jackson★2B
1-44010002
Team11-34346116157
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. PovichC. Povich★SP
6.2511050
A. NunezA. NunezRP
0.1000010
T. WellsT. WellsRP
2.0211011
Team9.0722071

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SF

  • A. Houser
    88 pitches·23% CSW
    • SI
      28%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      25%·95.7 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      17%·82.6 mph·14% whiff
    • CH
      15%·85.3 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      15%·88.2 mph·20% whiff
  • M. Gage
    21 pitches·19% CSW
    • SL
      71%·83.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      19%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      10%·84.3 mph·100% whiff
  • E. Miller
    21 pitches·19% CSW
    • SL
      43%·85.8 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      38%·97.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      14%·97.9 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      5%·87.7 mph·— whiff
  • R. Walker
    20 pitches·45% CSW
    • SI
      65%·95.8 mph·40% whiff
    • SL
      35%·83.5 mph·50% whiff
  • J. Brubaker
    20 pitches·35% CSW
    • SI
      45%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      35%·87.5 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      15%·88.4 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      5%·92.4 mph·— whiff

BAL

  • C. Povich
    97 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      38%·91.7 mph·23% whiff
    • CU
      31%·76.5 mph·47% whiff
    • SL
      16%·86.1 mph·38% whiff
    • CH
      9%·83.9 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      5%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Wells
    28 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      71%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      18%·90.3 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      7%·87.7 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      4%·78.9 mph·— whiff
  • A. Nunez
    3 pitches·67% CSW
    • ST
      100%·85.3 mph·67% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

11

2

Runs

6

1

Errors

0

Current series

BAL wins series 2-1

Apr 10SFSF6@BALBAL3
Apr 11SFSF2@BALBAL6
Apr 12SFSF2@BALBAL6today

Season series

BAL wins series 2-1

Apr 10SFSF6@BALBAL3
Apr 11SFSF2@BALBAL6
Apr 12SFSF2@BALBAL6today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SF -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SFSF+10449%
BALBAL-12656%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SF -1.5↗SpreadBet SF -1.5↗

Line movement · 12 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSF ↔ BAL

Biggest swing: 18pp · Bottom 1st Inning

SFSF
C. Schmitt

C. Schmitt

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

A. Houser

A. Houser

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 3 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

BALBAL
S. Basallo

S. Basallo

C

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

C. Povich

C. Povich

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.2 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 5 H

How it ended

BAL beat SF 6-2. Basallo's play in the bottom 1st inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Win probability

BAL vs SF

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BALBottom 1st Inning · 0-2
+18pp→ 75% WP

Basallo · homered to left center (396 feet), Alonso scored.

SFTop 5th Inning · 1-2
+9pp→ 29% WP

Susac · singled to center, Schmitt scored.

BALBottom 5th Inning · 1-4
+15pp→ 90% WP

Alonso · doubled to left, Henderson scored and Ward scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SF0000100012
BAL20002110—6

Period scoring

SF won 0 · BAL won 4

0
2

Inn 1

Basallo 2

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

1
2

Inn 5

Susac 1

Alonso 2

0
1

Inn 6

Mayo 1

0
1

Inn 7

Cowser 1

0
0

Inn 8

1

Inn 9

Schmitt 1

SF
BAL

Play-by-play · 560 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    SF 2·BAL 6

  2. T9

    Oliva lined out to center.

    ·

    SF 2·BAL 6

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SF 2·BAL 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SF 2·BAL 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SF 2·BAL 6

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    SF 2·BAL 6

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    SF 2·BAL 6

  8. T9

    Tyler Wells pitches to Jared Oliva

    ·

    SF 2·BAL 6

  9. T9

    Oliva hit for Ramos

    ·

    SF 2·BAL 6

  10. T9

    ·

    SF 2·BAL 6

  11. T9

    Lee grounded out to first.

    ·

    SF 2·BAL 6

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SF 2·BAL 6

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    SF 2·BAL 6

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SF 2·BAL 6

  15. T9

    Tyler Wells pitches to Jung Hoo Lee

    ·

    SF 2·BAL 6

  16. T9

    ·

    SF 2·BAL 6

  17. T9

    Schmitt homered to left (385 feet).

    ·

    SF 2·BAL 6

  18. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SF 2·BAL 6

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SF 1·BAL 6

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SF 1·BAL 6

  21. T9

    Tyler Wells pitches to Casey Schmitt

    ·

    SF 2·BAL 6

  22. T9

    ·

    SF 1·BAL 6

  23. T9

    Chapman flied out to left.

    ·

    SF 1·BAL 6

  24. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SF 1·BAL 6

  25. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SF 1·BAL 6

  26. T9

    Tyler Wells pitches to Matt Chapman

    ·

    SF 1·BAL 6

  27. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    SF 1·BAL 6

  28. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    SF 1·BAL 6

  29. B8

    · ·

    SF 1·BAL 6

  30. B8

    Alonso grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Ward out at second.

    · ·

    SF 1·BAL 6

Team stats

SF

Away

Stat

BAL

Home

2

Runs

6

7

Hits

11

1

Errors

0

12

TB

16

1

HR

1

0

BB

5

7

K

7

7

LOB

20

Betting line

SF -1.5·O/U 8.5·SF +104/BAL -126

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort
  • Dylan BeaversBAL · RF
    SPRINT29.194
  • Leody TaverasBAL · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175
  • Colton CowserBAL · CF
    SPRINT28.175

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 10, 26sim 99
    266
    1(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 11, 26sim 97
    262
    1(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 28, 26sim 96
    260
    22(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 7, 26sim 96
    13
    28(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 25, 26sim 96
    282
    26(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 29, 26sim 96
    234
    21(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

BAL vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low
  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.6± 3.0low
  • Trevor McDonaldSF
    5.4± 2.3low

Hits

  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.4± 2.1high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.9± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.8± 1.4high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.9low
  • Logan WebbSF
    3.4± 2.6low
  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.0%

ensemble · BAL favored

  • Elo Static

    54.9%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    55.1%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.8%

    P(BAL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.12 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.