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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1PIT
BAL

BAL

3-5

2
3
PIT

PIT

5-3

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
27,949 attended

Line movement

7 snapshots

PIT spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

PIT no-vig %

50.4%

open 50.4%

+2.0+1.0PIT SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL54.4%46.4%PIT NO-VIG %MODEL 53.7%May 4, 10 AMMay 29, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PIT favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

BAL 2 · PIT 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PIT +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BAL0002000002
PIT0001000113

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-112

Close price

-112

Open no-vig

50.4%

Close no-vig

50.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Sat, Apr 4·Final/SeriesPIT wins series 3-0/VegasPIT -112

Recap · MLB

Pittsburgh Pirates held off Baltimore Orioles, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

PIT +1.5 cashed (BAL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BAL · top performer

BAL
Leody Taveras

Leody Taveras

CF

1.250OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

PIT · top performer

PIT
Nick Yorke

Nick Yorke

3B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Baltimore Orioles at Pittsburgh Pirates · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BAL3-5
2
3
PIT5-3
BAL3-5·PIT5-3
BAL

BAL

3-5

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. WardT. Ward★LF
0-44000011
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
1-33110021
SPRINT28.175
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
0-44000002
A. RutschmanA. Rutschman★C
2-44120000
SPRINT26.632
D. BeaversD. Beavers★RF
1-44011001
SPRINT29.194
C. MayoC. Mayo★3B
1-33010011
SPRINT2872
L. TaverasL. Taveras★CF
1-22011020
SPRINT2993
C. CowserC. Cowser★CF
0-22000002
B. AlexanderB. Alexander★3B
0-33000010
T. O'NeillT. O'NeillRF
0-22000000
Team6-3131262078
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. BazS. Baz★SP
5.2411350
R. GarciaR. GarciaRP
0.1000100
G. WolframG. WolframRP
1.0100020
A. NunezA. NunezRP
1.0110100
R. HelsleyR. HelsleyRP
0.1211100
Team8.1832670
PIT

PIT

5-3

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
O. CruzO. Cruz★CF
1-44010011
SPRINT28.483
B. LoweB. Lowe★2B
0-44000011
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
3-44230011
SPRINT27.969
R. O'HearnR. O'Hearn★RF
1-44010011
SPRINT26.735
M. OzunaM. Ozuna★DH
1-44010002
K. GriffinK. Griffin★SS
0-33000000
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz★1B
1-33011000
SPRINT24.85
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
0-22000020
J. BartJ. Bart★C
0-33000001
N. YorkeN. Yorke3B
1-11111000
SPRINT27.662
J. MangumJ. MangumLF
0-11000000
Team8-3333382067
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. MlodzinskiC. Mlodzinski★SP
4.2522350
H. BarcoH. BarcoRP
2.1000310
I. MattsonI. MattsonRP
1.0100110
D. SantanaD. SantanaRP
1.0000010
Team9.0622780

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BAL

  • S. Baz
    98 pitches·30% CSW
    • KC
      37%·86.0 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      32%·97.4 mph·29% whiff
    • FC
      22%·90.4 mph·14% whiff
    • CH
      8%·90.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      1%·96.2 mph·— whiff
  • A. Nunez
    27 pitches·11% CSW
    • SI
      48%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      26%·87.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      22%·86.8 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      4%·96.2 mph·— whiff
  • G. Wolfram
    21 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      38%·96.1 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      29%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      14%·85.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      10%·96.2 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      10%·87.3 mph·— whiff
  • R. Helsley
    13 pitches·23% CSW
    • SL
      46%·89.2 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      38%·99.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      8%·82.8 mph·— whiff
    • FS
      8%·90.8 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Garcia
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • SL
      70%·89.1 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      20%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      10%·87.0 mph·0% whiff

PIT

  • C. Mlodzinski
    84 pitches·25% CSW
    • FS
      35%·85.4 mph·27% whiff
    • FF
      23%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      18%·85.0 mph·38% whiff
    • SI
      18%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      7%·91.7 mph·0% whiff
  • H. Barco
    45 pitches·22% CSW
    • SI
      47%·93.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      29%·94.3 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      18%·82.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      4%·82.8 mph·— whiff
    • FS
      2%·84.1 mph·— whiff
  • I. Mattson
    17 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      94%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      6%·84.9 mph·— whiff
  • D. Santana
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • CH
      38%·88.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      31%·85.2 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      15%·94.7 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      15%·94.5 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

8

2

Runs

3

1

Errors

0

Current series

PIT wins series 3-0

Apr 3BALBAL4@PITPIT5
Apr 4BALBAL2@PITPIT3today
Apr 5BALBAL2@PITPIT8

Season series

PIT leads series 2-0

Apr 3BALBAL4@PITPIT5
Apr 4BALBAL2@PITPIT3today
Apr 5BALBAL2@PITPIT8

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BAL -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BALBAL-10852%
PITPIT-11253%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BAL -1.5↗SpreadBet BAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBAL ↔ PIT

Biggest swing: 31pp · Bottom 8th Inning

BALBAL
L. Taveras

L. Taveras

CF

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.250 OPS

S. Baz

S. Baz

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

PITPIT
N. Yorke

N. Yorke

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

C. Mlodzinski

C. Mlodzinski

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

How it ended

PIT beat BAL 3-2. Yorke's play in the bottom 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (31pp).

Win probability

PIT vs BAL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PITBottom 8th Inning · 2-1
+11pp→ 41% WP

Ozuna · reached on infield single to third.

PITBottom 8th Inning · 2-2
+31pp→ 62% WP

Yorke · scored on error, Mangum safe at first on fielding error by pitcher Nunez, Gonzales to second.

PITBottom 9th Inning · 2-3
+29pp→ 100% WP

Yorke · doubled to left, Reynolds scored, O'Hearn to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BAL0002000002
PIT0001000113

Period scoring

BAL won 1 · PIT won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

2
1

Inn 4

Beavers 1

Horwitz 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Yorke 1

0
1

Inn 9

Yorke 1

BAL
PIT

Play-by-play · 621 plays

period
event
player
  1. B9

    · ·

    BAL 2·PIT 3

  2. B9

    Yorke doubled to left, Reynolds scored, O'Hearn to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BAL 2·PIT 3

    +29pp

  3. B9

    Pitch 8 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BAL 2·PIT 3

  4. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 3

    · ·

    BAL 2·PIT 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BAL 2·PIT 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BAL 2·PIT 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BAL 2·PIT 2

  8. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BAL 2·PIT 2

  9. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 2·PIT 2

  10. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BAL 2·PIT 2

  11. B9

    Ryan Helsley pitches to Nick Yorke

    · ·

    BAL 2·PIT 3

  12. B9

    · ·

    BAL 2·PIT 2

  13. B9

    O'Hearn intentionally walked.

    · ·

    BAL 2·PIT 2

    −0.6pp

  14. B9

    Pitch 4 : Automatic Ball - IBB 4

    · ·

    BAL 2·PIT 2

  15. B9

    Pitch 3 : Automatic Ball - IBB 3

    · ·

    BAL 2·PIT 2

  16. B9

    Pitch 2 : Automatic Ball - IBB 2

    · ·

    BAL 2·PIT 2

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball - IBB 1

    · ·

    BAL 2·PIT 2

  18. B9

    Ryan Helsley pitches to Ryan O'Hearn

    · ·

    BAL 2·PIT 2

  19. B9

    ·

    BAL 2·PIT 2

  20. B9

    Reynolds doubled to left.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    BAL 2·PIT 2

    +11pp

  21. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BAL 2·PIT 2

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BAL 2·PIT 2

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    BAL 2·PIT 2

  24. B9

    Ryan Helsley pitches to Bryan Reynolds

    ·

    BAL 2·PIT 2

  25. B9

    ·

    BAL 2·PIT 2

  26. B9

    Lowe grounded out to second.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    BAL 2·PIT 2

    −6pp

  27. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BAL 2·PIT 2

  28. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BAL 2·PIT 2

  29. B9

    Ryan Helsley pitches to Brandon Lowe

    ·

    BAL 2·PIT 2

  30. B9

    Helsley relieved Nunez

    ·

    BAL 2·PIT 2

Team stats

BAL

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

2

Runs

3

6

Hits

8

1

Errors

0

6

TB

11

0

HR

0

7

BB

6

8

K

7

21

LOB

21

Betting line

BAL -1.5·O/U 8.5·BAL -108/PIT -112

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Konnor GriffinPIT · SS
    SPRINT29.899
  • Dylan BeaversBAL · RF
    SPRINT29.194
  • Leody TaverasBAL · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Oneil CruzPIT · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

PIT vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.6± 3.0low

Hits

  • Brandon LowePIT
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Brandon LowePIT
    2.1± 1.6high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.9± 2.7high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.8± 1.4high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL
    0.7± 1.9high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.9low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Chris BassittBAL
    2.7± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.9%

ensemble · PIT favored

  • Elo Static

    54.7%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    55.6%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.1%

    P(PIT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.62 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Mar 28, 26sim 97
    232
    21(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 3, 26sim 96
    240
    6(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 1, 26sim 95
    111
    15(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 29, 26sim 95
    234
    21(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 9, 26sim 95
    61
    7(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 30, 26sim 95
    110
    15(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs