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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+7PHI
SF

SF

13-16

0
7
PHI

PHI

10-19

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
36,731 attended

Line movement

49 snapshots

PHI spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

PHI no-vig %

59.3%

open 59.3%

-1.0-2.0PHI SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL63.3%55.3%PHI NO-VIG %May 3, 7 PMMay 30, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PHI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

SF 0 · PHI 7 (by 7)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SF0000000000
PHI000104027

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+135

Close price

+135

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 7, 26sim 97
    13
    28(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 25, 26sim 97
    282
    26(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 26, 26sim 97
    283
    26(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 11, 26sim 97
    262
    1(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 96
    262
    1(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 10, 26sim 96
    66
    7(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, Apr 28·Final/SeriesPHI wins series 3-0/VegasPHI -163

Recap · MLB

Philadelphia Phillies held off San Francisco Giants, 7–0. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

PHI -1.5 cashed (won by 7). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 1.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SF · top performer

SF
Luis Arraez

Luis Arraez

2B

0.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

PHI · top performer

PHI
Trea Turner

Trea Turner

SS

1.600OPS

5-4

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SF13-16
0
7
PHI10-19
SF13-16·PHI10-19
SF

SF

13-16

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. LeeJ. Lee★RF
0-44000001
SPRINT27.148
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
0-44000004
SPRINT28.175
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
1-33010000
SPRINT26.632
C. SchmittC. Schmitt★DH
0-33000000
SPRINT2872
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
0-33000001
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
0-33000001
H. RamosH. Ramos★LF
1-33010001
SPRINT27.251
D. GilbertD. Gilbert★CF
0-33000001
P. BaileyP. Bailey★C
0-22000002
J. EncarnacionJ. EncarnacionRF
0-11000001
Team2-29290200012
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. MahleT. Mahle★SP
5.0655330
M. GageM. GageRP
1.0100110
B. TidwellB. TidwellRP
2.0422120
Team8.01177560
PHI

PHI

10-19

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
4-55241001
SPRINT29.798
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
0-33100020
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
2-44121000
SPRINT2744
A. GarciaA. Garcia★RF
1-33112010
SPRINT26.735
B. MarshB. Marsh★LF
1-33111000
SPRINT28.175
B. StottB. Stott★2B
0-33000013
A. BohmA. Bohm★3B
2-44021000
SPRINT26.632
J. CrawfordJ. Crawford★CF
1-44111002
R. MarchanR. Marchan★C
0-33000010
Team11-32327117056
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. LuzardoJ. Luzardo★SP
7.0200080
O. KerkeringO. KerkeringRP
1.0000020
T. MayzaT. MayzaRP
1.0000020
Team9.02000120

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SF

  • T. Mahle
    82 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      55%·91.9 mph·15% whiff
    • FS
      27%·85.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      15%·86.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      4%·84.8 mph·— whiff
  • B. Tidwell
    47 pitches·19% CSW
    • ST
      40%·82.3 mph·17% whiff
    • FF
      38%·96.6 mph·22% whiff
    • SI
      11%·95.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      6%·87.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      4%·83.8 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Gage
    20 pitches·15% CSW
    • SL
      50%·84.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      35%·92.1 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      10%·85.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      5%·93.9 mph·— whiff

PHI

  • J. Luzardo
    88 pitches·35% CSW
    • ST
      42%·85.9 mph·47% whiff
    • FF
      24%·97.2 mph·31% whiff
    • CH
      19%·86.2 mph·36% whiff
    • SI
      15%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
  • O. Kerkering
    20 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      30%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      30%·87.1 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      25%·97.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      15%·92.3 mph·100% whiff
  • T. Mayza
    17 pitches·35% CSW
    • SI
      65%·95.0 mph·25% whiff
    • FS
      18%·90.3 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      18%·87.6 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

2

Hits

11

0

Runs

7

0

Errors

0

Current series

PHI wins series 3-0

Apr 28SFSF0@PHIPHI7today
Apr 29SFSF0@PHIPHI0
Apr 30SFSF2@PHIPHI3
Apr 30SFSF5@PHIPHI6

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Apr 7PHIPHI6@SFSF4
Apr 8PHIPHI0@SFSF6
Apr 8PHIPHI0@SFSF5
Apr 28SFSF0@PHIPHI7today
Apr 29SFSF0@PHIPHI0
Apr 30SFSF2@PHIPHI3
Apr 30SFSF5@PHIPHI6

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SFSF+13543%
PHIPHI-16362%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗

Line movement · 49 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSF ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 10pp · Bottom 6th Inning

SFSF
L. Arraez

L. Arraez

2B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.667 OPS

T. Mahle

T. Mahle

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 5 ER · 6 H · 3 BB

PHIPHI
T. Turner

T. Turner

SS

Batter of the game

4-for-5 · 2 R · 1.600 OPS

J. Luzardo

J. Luzardo

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 8 K · 0 ER · 2 H

How it ended

PHI beat SF 7-0.

Win probability

PHI vs SF

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SFTop 3rd Inning · 0-0
+7pp→ 53% WP

Ramos · doubled to center.

PHIBottom 4th Inning · 0-0
+9pp→ 63% WP

Turner · singled to left.

PHIBottom 6th Inning · 0-2
+10pp→ 92% WP

Harper · doubled to left, Turner scored, Schwarber to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SF0000000000
PHI00010402—7

Period scoring

SF won 0 · PHI won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Marsh 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
4

Inn 6

Garc 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
2

Inn 8

Crawford 1

0

Inn 9

SF
PHI

Play-by-play · 515 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    SF 0·PHI 7

  2. T9

    Chapman struck out swinging.

    ·

    SF 0·PHI 7

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SF 0·PHI 7

  4. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SF 0·PHI 7

  5. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    SF 0·PHI 7

  6. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SF 0·PHI 7

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SF 0·PHI 7

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SF 0·PHI 7

  9. T9

    Tim Mayza pitches to Matt Chapman

    ·

    SF 0·PHI 7

  10. T9

    ·

    SF 0·PHI 7

  11. T9

    Lee grounded out to second.

    ·

    SF 0·PHI 7

  12. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SF 0·PHI 7

  13. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    SF 0·PHI 7

  14. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    SF 0·PHI 7

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SF 0·PHI 7

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SF 0·PHI 7

  17. T9

    Tim Mayza pitches to Jung Hoo Lee

    ·

    SF 0·PHI 7

  18. T9

    ·

    SF 0·PHI 7

  19. T9

    Encarnacion struck out looking.

    ·

    SF 0·PHI 7

  20. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    SF 0·PHI 7

  21. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    SF 0·PHI 7

  22. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SF 0·PHI 7

  23. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SF 0·PHI 7

  24. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    SF 0·PHI 7

  25. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SF 0·PHI 7

  26. T9

    Tim Mayza pitches to Jerar Encarnacion

    ·

    SF 0·PHI 7

  27. T9

    Mayza relieved Kerkering

    ·

    SF 0·PHI 7

  28. T9

    Encarnacion hit for Bailey

    ·

    SF 0·PHI 7

  29. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    SF 0·PHI 7

  30. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    SF 0·PHI 7

Team stats

SF

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

0

Runs

7

2

Hits

11

0

Errors

0

4

TB

14

0

HR

0

0

BB

5

12

K

6

5

LOB

18

Betting line

PHI -1.5·O/U 8·SF +135/PHI -163

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • Justin CrawfordPHI · CF
    SPRINT29.798
  • Bryson StottPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Brandon MarshPHI · LF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

PHI vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 72 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.5± 3.6low
  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low

Hits

  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.4± 2.1high

RBIs

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    0.9± 1.6high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Logan WebbSF
    3.4± 2.6low
  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low
  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.3%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    54.1%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    56.1%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.0%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.28 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.