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THU, 6:40 PM EDTModelMIA53%

BAL

17-20

MIA

16-21

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 7.09

C. Povich

1-1 · 4.41 ERA

M. Meyer

2-0 · 2.68 ERA

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Cade Povich

SP · #37

1-1

W-L

4.41

ERA

1.29

WHIP

16.1

Last 3 starts

@NYYL(1-1)4.0 IP5 ER4 K

vsSFW(1-0)6.2 IP1 ER5 K

@PIT-5.2 IP2 ER2 K

Home starter

Max Meyer

SP · #23

2-0

W-L

2.68

ERA

1.03

WHIP

37.0

Last 3 starts

vsPHIW(2-0)7.0 IP0 ER7 K

@SF-5.0 IP0 ER5 K

vsSTL-5.1 IP2 ER8 K

Vegas line

Spread-1.5

TotalO/U 8.5

Money+109 / -131

Model edge

Win prob47% / 53%

LeanHome · 3pp

ConfidenceTossup

Head to head

SeriesBAL leads series 2-0

TypeCurrent Series

Place a bet

Pick a side.

Even matchup per the model — pick a side and we'll send you to the book.

+109Bet BAL ML↗+109Bet BAL ML↗

-131Bet MIA ML↗-131Bet MIA ML↗

Other markets

-1.5Bet the run line↗-1.5Bet the run line↗

O/U 8.5Bet the total↗O/U 8.5Bet the total↗

21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.

Projected lineups

Top of the order, top of mind.

Posted by ESPN ~30 minutes before first pitch.

MIA

1.O. LopezSS
2.C. Norby1B
3.L. HicksC
4.C. MorelDH
5.H. HernandezLF
6.E. RuizRF
7.J. MarseeCF
8.L. Jimenez2B
9.J. Sanoja3B

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIA spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

MIA no-vig %

52.6%

open 53.2% · -0.6

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model vs marketAligned

DraftKings · snapped just now

Pass · no edgemodel and market agree on

MIA

BALWin prob axisMIA

Market 54%

Model 53%

0%50%100%

ModelMIA 53%Pre-game prob

MarketMIA 54%No-vig · 4.6% hold

EV—Pass threshold

BAL +109/

MIA -131Pass · no value

Scouting report · pre-game

MIA vs BAL.

MIA has dropped 4 straight; BAL is 4-6 over its last 10.

53.3%

model · MIA win prob

Recent form

MIA3–7-1.0
BAL4–6-2.1

Situational

MIA1d restB2B
BAL1d restB2B
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. MIA has 0 straight road games; BAL has 6.

Model angle

Weather and park remove about 0.3 runs from the total environment.

▼Weather + park-0.3pp

Players to watch

Samuel BasalloBAL
2.3total bases · ±2.8
Samuel Basallo · 2.3 TB · last-10 2.7 vs season 1.6.
Pete AlonsoBAL
2.2total bases · ±1.7
Pete Alonso · 2.2 TB · last-10 2.6 vs season 1.7.
Otto LopezMIA
2.1total bases · ±1.4
Otto Lopez · 2.1 TB · last-10 2.2 vs season 2.

Head-to-head · 0-2 · last 2

MIA is 0-2 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-05-05BAL @ MIA9–7
2026-05-06BAL @ MIA7–4

Line move

open -126→-122toward BAL

The market has moved 0.8pp toward the away side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.7%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
53.3%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
55.3%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.6%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.14 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Player projections

MIA vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 57 high confidence

Strikeouts

Max MeyerMIA
5.7± 1.9low
Eury PerezMIA
5.6± 2.5low
Kyle BradishBAL
5.0± 2.2low

Hits

Otto LopezMIA
1.4± 1.0high
Samuel BasalloBAL
1.3± 1.3high
Adley RutschmanBAL
1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

Samuel BasalloBAL
2.3± 2.8high
Pete AlonsoBAL
2.2± 1.7high
Otto LopezMIA
2.1± 1.4high

RBIs

Liam HicksMIA
1.0± 1.4high
Adley RutschmanBAL
0.9± 1.4high
Pete AlonsoBAL
0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

Shane BazBAL
3.1± 2.1low
Chris BassittBAL
3.0± 3.1low
Eury PerezMIA
2.9± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelTossup

Thu, May 7

BAL

Orioles

17-20

vs53.3%MIA

MIA★

Marlins

16-21

BAL 46.7%win prob53.3% MIA

MIA 1479 · BAL 1480Box score→

Player projections

MIA vs BAL.

124

projections · 57 high confidence

Strikeouts

Max MeyerMIA
5.7± 1.9low
Eury PerezMIA
5.6± 2.5low
Kyle BradishBAL
5.0± 2.2low

Hits

Otto LopezMIA
1.4± 1.0high
Samuel BasalloBAL
1.3± 1.3high
Adley RutschmanBAL
1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

Samuel BasalloBAL
2.3± 2.8high
Pete AlonsoBAL
2.2± 1.7high
Otto LopezMIA
2.1± 1.4high

RBIs

Liam HicksMIA
1.0± 1.4high
Adley RutschmanBAL
0.9± 1.4high
Pete AlonsoBAL
0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

Shane BazBAL
3.1± 2.1low
Chris BassittBAL
3.0± 3.1low
Eury PerezMIA
2.9± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

53.7%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
53.3%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
55.3%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.6%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.14 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

MLBThu, May 75/7 - 6:40 PM EDTSeriesBAL leads series 2-0VegasMIA -131

Preview · MLB

altimore Orioles visit Miami Marlins Thursday at 5/7 - 6:40 PM EDT.

Vegas opened MIA as a 1.5-point favorite with the total at 8.5. MIA's moneyline implies a 57% break-even, BAL the inverse. MIA is on a back-to-back.

For bettors: the MIA side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 8.5 total reads near the league average.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Updated 0s ago

Tonight's box score

Every player. Every line.

BAL · MIA

BAL

17-20

	Batting
Player	H-AB	AB	H	RBI	HR	SB	K	AVG

	Batting
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	PC-ST	ERA	PC

MIA

16-21

	Batting								Analytics
Player	H-AB	AB	H	RBI	HR	SB	K	AVG	OPS
O. Lopez★SS	48-143	143	48	16	4	5	28	.336	0.755
C. Norby★1B	25-108	108	25	11	3	2	41	.231	0.546
L. Hicks★C	35-109	109	35	32	8	1	11	.321	0.862
C. Morel★LF	4-17	17	4	0	0	0	7	.235	0.471
H. Hernandez★LF	10-63	63	10	9	0	3	14	.159	0.317
E. Ruiz★CF	4-15	15	4	3	2	3	6	.267	0.933
J. Marsee★CF	25-139	139	25	10	1	10	42	.180	0.381
L. Jimenez★2B	3-16	16	3	0	0	0	3	.188	0.375
J. Sanoja★3B	22-73	73	22	10	0	2	11	.301	0.603
Team	-----	--	--	--	--	--	--		—

	Batting
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	PC-ST	ERA	PC
M. Meyer★SP	--.--	--	--	--	--	--	--	-----	2.68	--
Team	--.--	--	--	--	--	--	--	-----		--

Current series

BAL leads series 2-0

May 5

BAL9@

MIA7

May 6

BAL7@

MIA4

May 7

BAL@

MIAtoday

Season series

BAL leads series 2-0

May 5

BAL9@

MIA7

May 6

BAL7@

MIA4

May 7

BAL@

MIAtoday

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIA -1.5

1.5pt· 6.2h

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BAL+10948%

MIA-13157%

4· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIA -1.5↗SpreadBet MIA -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats

BALSP

C. Povich

#37 · 1-1

ERA

4.41

—

Last 3 starts

5/1@

NYY4.0 IP · 5 ER · 4 KL(1-1)

4/12vs

SF6.2 IP · 1 ER · 5 KW(1-0)

4/5@

PIT5.2 IP · 2 ER · 2 K-

MIASP

M. Meyer

#23 · 2-0

ERA

2.68

—

Last 3 starts

5/2vs

PHI7.0 IP · 0 ER · 7 KW(2-0)

4/26@

SF5.0 IP · 0 ER · 5 K-

4/20vs

STL5.1 IP · 2 ER · 8 K-

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order

BAL

Lineup not posted yet.

MIA2L · 7R

1
O. Lopez
SS
R
2
C. Norby
1B
R
3
L. Hicks
C
L
4
C. Morel
DH
R
5
H. Hernandez
LF
R
6
E. Ruiz
RF
R
7
J. Marsee
CF
L
8
L. Jimenez
2B
R
9
J. Sanoja
3B
R

Scouting report

BAL @ MIA

5/7 - 6:40 PM EDT

StorylineMIA lost 4 in a row.

Rest going in

BALB2B

0 days

last game May 6

MIAB2B

0 days

last game May 6

Model edge vs market

Lean only

Spread

Market

MIA -1.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Total

Market

8.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Moneyline

Market

MIA -131

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+

Tale of the tape

BALmetricMIA

17-20

Record

16-21

#10

Conf rank

#12

-1.0

Pt diff

-0.2

Streak

4-6

Last 10

3-7

Bullpen used yesterday

BAL

3.0 bullpen IP · heavy

G. Wolfram0.2 IP15 P
A. Nunez1.1 IP16 P
R. Garcia1.0 IP15 P

W 7-4 · May 6

MIA

4.0 bullpen IP · heavy

D. Fulton4.0 IP64 P

L 7-4 · May 6

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Team stats

BAL

Away

Stat

MIA

Home

287

Hits

306

Errors

171

Runs

157

Betting line

MIA -1.5·O/U 8.5·BAL +109/MIA -131

DraftKings · via ESPN

Scouting report · pre-game

MIA vs BAL.

MIA has dropped 4 straight; BAL is 4-6 over its last 10.

53.3%

model · MIA win prob

Recent form

MIA3–7-1.0
BAL4–6-2.1

Situational

MIA1d restB2B
BAL1d restB2B
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. MIA has 0 straight road games; BAL has 6.

Model angle

Weather and park remove about 0.3 runs from the total environment.

▼Weather + park-0.3pp

Players to watch

Samuel BasalloBAL
2.3total bases · ±2.8
Samuel Basallo · 2.3 TB · last-10 2.7 vs season 1.6.
Pete AlonsoBAL
2.2total bases · ±1.7
Pete Alonso · 2.2 TB · last-10 2.6 vs season 1.7.
Otto LopezMIA
2.1total bases · ±1.4
Otto Lopez · 2.1 TB · last-10 2.2 vs season 2.

Head-to-head · 0-2 · last 2

MIA is 0-2 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-05-05BAL @ MIA9–7
2026-05-06BAL @ MIA7–4

Line move

open -126→-122toward BAL

The market has moved 0.8pp toward the away side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes