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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4DET
STL

STL

4-3

0
4
DET

DET

3-4

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan
45,008 attended

Line movement

18 snapshots

DET spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

DET no-vig %

62.2%

open 62.2%

-1.0-2.0DET SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL66.2%58.2%DET NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 29, 1 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = DET favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

STL 0 · DET 4 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked DET +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
STL0000000000
DET000211004

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+153

Close price

+153

Open no-vig

37.8%

Close no-vig

37.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Fri, Apr 3·Final/SeriesDET wins series 2-1/VegasDET -186

Recap · MLB

Detroit Tigers held off St. Louis Cardinals, 4–0.

DET -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 4.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

STL · top performer

STL
Ivan Herrera

Ivan Herrera

DH

0.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

DET · top performer

DET
Kerry Carpenter

Kerry Carpenter

RF

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · St. Louis Cardinals at Detroit Tigers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
STL4-3
0
4
DET3-4
STL4-3·DET3-4
STL

STL

4-3

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. WinnM. Winn★SS
1-33010000
SPRINT2872
I. HerreraI. Herrera★DH
1-33010011
SPRINT25.513
A. BurlesonA. Burleson★1B
1-33010010
SPRINT25.513
R. UriasR. Urias★3B
0-33000002
J. WalkerJ. Walker★RF
0-44000001
Y. PozoY. Pozo★C
0-44000000
T. SaggeseT. Saggese★LF
1-33010011
SPRINT27.354
J. FerminJ. Fermin★LF
0-22000000
V. Scott IIV. Scott II★CF
1-44010001
SPRINT29.798
N. ChurchN. ChurchLF
0-11000001
N. GormanN. Gorman3B
0-11000001
J. WetherholtJ. Wetherholt2B
0-22000001
Team5-3333050039
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. McGreevyM. McGreevy★SP
4.2733041
J. BruihlJ. BruihlRP
0.2200000
G. SorianoG. SorianoRP
0.2111000
G. GraceffoG. GraceffoRP
1.0000200
C. RoycroftC. RoycroftRP
1.0000010
Team8.01044251
DET

DET

3-4

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. McGonigleK. McGonigle★SS
1-44010000
G. TorresG. Torres★2B
1-33110010
SPRINT25.18
K. CarpenterK. Carpenter★RF
2-33020011
SPRINT26.735
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
2-44121000
SPRINT2744
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
1-44112101
SPRINT27.765
Z. McKinstryZ. McKinstry★2B
1-44010000
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
0-44000002
P. MeadowsP. Meadows★CF
0-33100001
J. BaezJ. Baez★SS
2-33021000
SPRINT27.251
Team10-32324104125
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
F. ValdezF. Valdez★SP
6.0300250
W. VestW. VestRP
1.0100020
K. FinneganK. FinneganRP
1.0100110
T. HoltonT. HoltonRP
1.0000010
Team9.0500390

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

STL

  • M. McGreevy
    75 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      27%·90.7 mph·13% whiff
    • CH
      23%·85.6 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      17%·89.7 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      13%·80.4 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      8%·76.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      7%·83.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      5%·86.3 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Soriano
    16 pitches·19% CSW
    • ST
      44%·85.2 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      31%·95.4 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      13%·87.6 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      13%·95.9 mph·— whiff
  • G. Graceffo
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      38%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      31%·83.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      13%·88.9 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      13%·88.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      6%·94.0 mph·— whiff
  • J. Bruihl
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      47%·89.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      47%·77.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      7%·80.3 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Roycroft
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      36%·93.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      36%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      27%·89.0 mph·0% whiff

DET

  • F. Valdez
    91 pitches·21% CSW
    • SI
      51%·94.1 mph·5% whiff
    • CU
      32%·78.8 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      16%·89.5 mph·13% whiff
    • SL
      1%·84.7 mph·— whiff
  • W. Vest
    17 pitches·41% CSW
    • FF
      35%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      35%·87.5 mph·75% whiff
    • CH
      18%·88.3 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      12%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Finnegan
    16 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      63%·96.5 mph·33% whiff
    • FS
      25%·87.5 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      13%·87.2 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Holton
    7 pitches·43% CSW
    • SI
      43%·91.4 mph·67% whiff
    • ST
      43%·80.2 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      14%·87.8 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

10

0

Runs

4

0

Errors

1

Current series

DET wins series 2-1

Apr 3STLSTL0@DETDET4today
Apr 4STLSTL6@DETDET11
Apr 5STLSTL5@DETDET3

Season series

DET leads series 1-0

Apr 3STLSTL0@DETDET4today
Apr 4STLSTL6@DETDET11
Apr 5STLSTL5@DETDET3

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

STLSTL+15340%
DETDET-18665%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -1.5↗SpreadBet DET -1.5↗

Line movement · 18 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSTL ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 19pp · Bottom 4th Inning

STLSTL
I. Herrera

I. Herrera

DH

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.833 OPS

M. McGreevy

M. McGreevy

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 7 H

DETDET
K. Carpenter

K. Carpenter

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.417 OPS

F. Valdez

F. Valdez

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 5 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

How it ended

DET beat STL 4-0. Dingler's play in the bottom 4th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Win probability

DET vs STL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
STLTop 4th Inning · 0-0
+8pp→ 50% WP

Burleson · singled to right.

DETTop 4th Inning · 0-0
+8pp→ 61% WP

Ferm · ín flied out to left.

DETBottom 4th Inning · 0-2
+19pp→ 81% WP

Dingler · homered to left center (433 feet), Greene scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
STL0000000000
DET00021100—4

Period scoring

STL won 0 · DET won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
2

Inn 4

Dingler 2

0
1

Inn 5

Greene 1

0
1

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

STL
DET

Play-by-play · 529 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    STL 0·DET 4

  2. T9

    Scott II grounded out to second.

    ·

    STL 0·DET 4

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    STL 0·DET 4

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    STL 0·DET 4

  5. T9

    Tyler Holton pitches to Victor Scott II

    ·

    STL 0·DET 4

  6. T9

    ·

    STL 0·DET 4

  7. T9

    Wetherholt struck out swinging.

    ·

    STL 0·DET 4

  8. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    STL 0·DET 4

  9. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    STL 0·DET 4

  10. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    STL 0·DET 4

  11. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    STL 0·DET 4

  12. T9

    Tyler Holton pitches to JJ Wetherholt

    ·

    STL 0·DET 4

  13. T9

    ·

    STL 0·DET 4

  14. T9

    Saggese flied out to center.

    ·

    STL 0·DET 4

    +0.8pp

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    STL 0·DET 4

  16. T9

    Tyler Holton pitches to Thomas Saggese

    ·

    STL 0·DET 4

  17. T9

    Holton relieved Finnegan

    ·

    STL 0·DET 4

  18. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    STL 0·DET 4

  19. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    STL 0·DET 4

  20. B8

    ·

    STL 0·DET 4

  21. B8

    Meadows struck out swinging.

    ·

    STL 0·DET 4

  22. B8

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    STL 0·DET 4

  23. B8

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    STL 0·DET 4

  24. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    STL 0·DET 4

  25. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    STL 0·DET 4

  26. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    STL 0·DET 4

  27. B8

    Chris Roycroft pitches to Parker Meadows

    ·

    STL 0·DET 4

  28. B8

    ·

    STL 0·DET 4

  29. B8

    Torkelson lined out to second.

    ·

    STL 0·DET 4

  30. B8

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    STL 0·DET 4

Team stats

STL

Away

Stat

DET

Home

0

Runs

4

5

Hits

10

0

Errors

1

5

TB

15

0

HR

1

3

BB

2

9

K

5

18

LOB

12

Betting line

DET -1.5·O/U 8·STL +153/DET -186

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Jordan WalkerSTL · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Nathan ChurchSTL · LF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Parker MeadowsDET · CF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Kevin McGonigleDET · SS
    SPRINT28.278
  • Masyn WinnSTL · SS
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

DET vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

118

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    5.0± 3.7low
  • Dustin MaySTL
    4.7± 3.0low

Hits

  • Bryan TorresSTL
    1.2± 1.1low
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Alec BurlesonSTL
    1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Bryan TorresSTL
    2.2± 2.6low
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    1.9± 2.2high
  • Ivan HerreraSTL
    1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    0.6± 1.2low
  • Ivan HerreraSTL
    0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    2.8± 2.1low
  • Framber ValdezDET
    2.7± 3.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.2%

ensemble · DET favored

  • Elo Static

    54.3%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    52.8%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.8%

    P(DET win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.62 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 4, 26sim 96
    12
    23(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 28, 26sim 96
    232
    21(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 28, 26sim 94
    260
    22(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 12, 26sim 94
    280
    9(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 94
    262
    1(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 15, 26sim 94
    71
    6(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs