HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 8
  • MLBBot 3
    COL 0@ATH 0
    +9.9ppmedium
  • MLBTop 3
    CHC 0@SF 0
    -16.7pphigh
  • MLBBot 7
    STL 7@MIN 4
    -43.6pplow
  • MLBBot 7
    ATL 3@NYM 7
    +58.9pplow
  • MLBBot 8
    HOU 9@KC 5
    -49.3pplow
  • MLBTop 5
    TB 0@LAA 4
    +62.6pplow
  • MLBTop 7
    SEA 8@WSH 1
    -47.4pplow
  • WNBA3:23 - 2nd
    GS 31@SEA 32
    +10.5pphigh
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5ATH
SEA

SEA

57-51

1
6
ATH

ATH

47-63

Sutter Health Park · Sacramento, California
8,671 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

SEA

SEA

league avg

ATH

ATH

.717

OPS

.715

▶

.735

.318

OBP

.319

▶

.326

4.30

Runs / G

4.50

4.32

3.57

Team ERA

◀

4.16

4.60

1.19

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.42

8.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATH wins

SEA 1 · ATH 6 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SEA +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SEA0001000001
ATH004020006

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

66%Last 7 · 69-36
61%Last 30 · 307-194
Receipts →
MLB·Tue, Jul 29·Final/Seriestied 3-3

Recap · MLB

Athletics held off Seattle Mariners, 6–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1L. EvansSEA−46.2pp
  2. 2L. ButlerATH+30.3pp
  3. 3N. KurtzATH+27.2pp

SEA · top performer

SEA
Julio Rodriguez

Julio Rodriguez

CF

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

ATH · top performer

ATH
Shea Langeliers

Shea Langeliers

C

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Seattle Mariners at Athletics · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
J.P. CrawfordSS
.2684000011
J. RodriguezCF
.2554020002
C. RaleighC
.2604010002
J. Naylor1B
.2634000002
R. ArozarenaLF
.2474110002
J. Polanco1B
.2523011010
D. CanzoneDH
.2903010012
B. Williamson2B
.2543000010
C. Young2B
.2414000000
Team331610411

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
L. EvansSP
4.27662787
C. VargasRP
1.11001021
J. KowarRP
2.00000116
Team8.086638124

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
L. ButlerRF
.2373110002
N. Kurtz1B
.3052100011
B. RookerDH
.2724113101
S. LangeliersC
.2534221100
T. SoderstromLF
.2553110011
M. AndujarDH
.2944022001
C. CortesRF
.2863000011
L. Urias2B
.2324000001
D. HernaizSS
.2504010000
Team31686238

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
L. SeverinoSP
5.05112693
E. AlvaradoRP
1.00002119
S. NewcombRP
1.01000320
M. KellyRP
2.00000123
Team9.0611411155

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

8

1

Runs

6

0

Errors

0

Current series

Series tied 3-3

May 6SEASEA6@ATHATH7
May 7SEASEA5@ATHATH3
May 7SEASEA6@ATHATH5
Jul 29SEASEA3@ATHATH1
Jul 30SEASEA1@ATHATH6today
Jul 31SEASEA4@ATHATH5

Season series

SEA leads series 5-4

Mar 28ATHATH2@SEASEA4
Mar 29ATHATH7@SEASEA0
Mar 30ATHATH4@SEASEA2
Mar 30ATHATH1@SEASEA2
May 6SEASEA6@ATHATH7
May 7SEASEA5@ATHATH3
May 7SEASEA6@ATHATH5
Jul 29SEASEA3@ATHATH1
Jul 30SEASEA1@ATHATH6today
Jul 31SEASEA4@ATHATH5
Aug 23ATHATH2@SEASEA3
Aug 24ATHATH2@SEASEA1
Aug 24ATHATH4@SEASEA11

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSEA ↔ ATH

Biggest swing: 26pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

SEASEA
J. Rodriguez

J. Rodriguez

CF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

L. Evans

L. Evans

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 7 K · 6 ER · 7 H · 2 BB

ATHATH
S. Langeliers

S. Langeliers

C

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

L. Severino

L. Severino

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

How it ended

ATH beat SEA 6-1. Rooker's play in the bottom 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (26pp).

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATHBottom 3rd Inning · 0-3
+26pp→ 80% WP

Rooker · homered to left (410 feet), Butler scored and Kurtz scored.

ATHBottom 3rd Inning · 0-4
+7pp→ 87% WP

Andujar · doubled to center, Langeliers scored.

SEATop 4th Inning · 1-4
+7pp→ 19% WP

Polanco · singled to right, Arozarena scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SEA0001000001
ATH00402000—6

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

ATH

Home

1

Runs

6

6

Hits

8

0

Errors

0

7

TB

17

0

HR

2

4

BB

3

11

K

8

16

LOB

11

Win probability

ATH vs SEA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

SEA won 1 · ATH won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
4

Inn 3

Rooker 3

1
0

Inn 4

Polanco 1

0
2

Inn 5

Langeliers 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

SEA
ATH

Play-by-play · 538 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    SEA 1·ATH 6

  2. T9

    Crawford lined out to first.

    ·

    SEA 1·ATH 6

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SEA 1·ATH 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 1·ATH 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    SEA 1·ATH 6

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SEA 1·ATH 6

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 1·ATH 6

  8. T9

    Michael Kelly pitches to J.P. Crawford

    ·

    SEA 1·ATH 6

  9. T9

    ·

    SEA 1·ATH 6

  10. T9

    Young grounded out to pitcher.

    ·

    SEA 1·ATH 6

  11. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SEA 1·ATH 6

  12. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 1·ATH 6

  13. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SEA 1·ATH 6

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    SEA 1·ATH 6

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    SEA 1·ATH 6

  16. T9

    Michael Kelly pitches to Cole Young

    ·

    SEA 1·ATH 6

  17. T9

    ·

    SEA 1·ATH 6

  18. T9

    Williamson flied out to left.

    ·

    SEA 1·ATH 6

  19. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SEA 1·ATH 6

  20. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    SEA 1·ATH 6

  21. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    SEA 1·ATH 6

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SEA 1·ATH 6

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 1·ATH 6

  24. T9

    Michael Kelly pitches to Ben Williamson

    ·

    SEA 1·ATH 6

  25. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    SEA 1·ATH 6

  26. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    SEA 1·ATH 6

  27. B8

    ·

    SEA 1·ATH 6

  28. B8

    Hernaiz lined out to second.

    ·

    SEA 1·ATH 6

  29. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SEA 1·ATH 6

  30. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SEA 1·ATH 6

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 15 players in cohort
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Shea LangeliersATH · C
    SPRINT28.586
  • Ben WilliamsonTB · 2B
    SPRINT28.381

Player projections

ATH vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Bryan WooSEA
    5.8± 4.0low
  • Bryce MillerSEA
    5.8± 3.2low
  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.8± 2.5low

Hits

  • Jacob WilsonATH
    1.2± 0.6high
  • Shea LangeliersATH
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Zack GelofATH
    1.1± 0.4high

Total bases

  • Shea LangeliersATH
    2.4± 2.7high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    2.3± 2.8high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    2.1± 2.8high

RBIs

  • Nick KurtzATH
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Jonah HeimATH
    0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Jeffrey SpringsATH
    3.2± 2.4low
  • Bryan WooSEA
    3.1± 3.9low
  • George KirbySEA
    2.8± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

43.0%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    45.8%

    P(ATH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    45.5%

    P(ATH win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    46.6%

    P(ATH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.47 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.