HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 8
  • MLBBot 3
    COL 0@ATH 0
    +9.9ppmedium
  • MLBEnd 2
    CHC 0@SF 0
    -12.4pphigh
  • MLBBot 7
    STL 7@MIN 4
    -43.6pplow
  • MLBBot 7
    ATL 3@NYM 7
    +58.9pplow
  • MLBBot 8
    HOU 9@KC 5
    -49.3pplow
  • MLBTop 5
    TB 0@LAA 4
    +62.6pplow
  • MLBEnd 6
    SEA 8@WSH 1
    -47.4pplow
  • WNBA4:29 - 2nd
    GS 28@SEA 31
    +16.4pphigh
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2TOR
TB

TB

77-83

2
4
TOR

TOR

92-68

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario
42,184 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TB

TB

league avg

TOR

TOR

.719

OPS

◀

.715

.702

.335

OBP

◀

.319

.314

4.50

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.13

3.94

Team ERA

◀

4.16

4.08

1.23

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.27

7.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

TB 2 · TOR 4 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TOR +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TB0200000002
TOR110020004

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

66%Last 7 · 69-36
61%Last 30 · 307-194
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Sep 26·Final/SeriesTOR wins series 4-2

Recap · MLB

Toronto Blue Jays held off Tampa Bay Rays, 4–2.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1G. SpringerTOR+33.5pp
  2. 2A. HouserTB−30.0pp
  3. 3N. LukesTOR+17.1pp

TB · top performer

TB
Junior Caminero

Junior Caminero

3B

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

TOR · top performer

TOR
Nathan Lukes

Nathan Lukes

RF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MLB · Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
C. SimpsonLF
.2965000000
Y. DiazDH
.2994000011
B. Lowe2B
.2584010001
J. Caminero3B
.2623121110
J. Aranda1B
.3163111111
J. MangumLF
.2993010001
J. LoweLF
.2223010010
C. WilliamsSS
.1654000003
H. FeducciaC
.1593000011
- R. Palacios2B
.2970000000
- C. Morel1B
.2221000000
- B. Seymour1B
.2030000000
Team33262258

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
A. HouserSP
6.07442596
C. SulserRP
2.00001232
Team8.074437128

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
G. SpringerDH
.3053220010
N. LukesRF
.2544123100
V. Guerrero Jr.1B
.2954010001
A. BargerRF
.2413000012
A. KirkC
.2784000002
D. VarshoCF
.2384110001
A. SantanderRF
.1773000001
E. Clement2B
.2753011000
A. GimenezSS
.2072000010
- I. Kiner-Falefa2B
.2410000000
- M. StrawRF
.2620000000
Team30474137

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
S. BieberSP
5.05222390
M. FluhartyRP
2.00000430
T. NanceRP
0.21000114
B. LittleRP
0.10001010
J. HoffmanRP
1.00002025
Team9.062258169

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TB

  • A. Houser
    96 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      45%·95.0 mph·13% whiff
    • SL
      29%·88.9 mph·30% whiff
    • CH
      13%·86.2 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      8%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      5%·82.5 mph·— whiff
  • C. Sulser
    32 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      41%·92.7 mph·22% whiff
    • CH
      31%·83.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      28%·87.0 mph·20% whiff

TOR

  • S. Bieber
    90 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      30%·92.6 mph·23% whiff
    • SL
      28%·84.9 mph·29% whiff
    • KC
      23%·82.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·88.7 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      4%·87.8 mph·— whiff
  • M. Fluharty
    30 pitches·47% CSW
    • FC
      50%·90.0 mph·73% whiff
    • ST
      50%·82.7 mph·38% whiff
  • J. Hoffman
    25 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      52%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      32%·85.5 mph·33% whiff
    • FS
      16%·87.1 mph·— whiff
  • T. Nance
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • SL
      43%·89.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      36%·85.4 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      21%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Little
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      60%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      40%·87.2 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

7

2

Runs

4

0

Errors

0

Current series

TOR wins series 4-2

May 13TBTB11@TORTOR9
May 14TBTB1@TORTOR3
May 15TBTB8@TORTOR3
Sep 26TBTB2@TORTOR4today
Sep 27TBTB1@TORTOR5
Sep 28TBTB4@TORTOR13

Season series

TB leads series 7-4

May 13TBTB11@TORTOR9
May 14TBTB1@TORTOR3
May 15TBTB8@TORTOR3
May 23TORTOR1@TBTB3
May 24TORTOR1@TBTB3
May 25TORTOR0@TBTB13
Sep 15TORTOR2@TBTB1
Sep 16TORTOR6@TBTB5
Sep 17TORTOR1@TBTB2
Sep 18TORTOR0@TBTB4
Sep 26TBTB2@TORTOR4today
Sep 27TBTB1@TORTOR5
Sep 28TBTB4@TORTOR13

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTB ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 20pp · Bottom 5th Inning

TBTB
J. Caminero

J. Caminero

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

A. Houser

A. Houser

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 5 K · 4 ER · 7 H · 2 BB

TORTOR
N. Lukes

N. Lukes

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

S. Bieber

S. Bieber

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

How it ended

TOR beat TB 4-2. Lukes's play in the bottom 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (20pp).

Win probability

TOR vs TB

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TBTop 2nd Inning · 2-1
+11pp→ 47% WP

Aranda · homered to right center (391 feet).

TORBottom 2nd Inning · 2-2
+11pp→ 65% WP

Clement · singled to right, Varsho scored.

TORBottom 5th Inning · 2-4
+20pp→ 84% WP

Lukes · homered to right center (399 feet), Springer scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TB0200000002
TOR11002000—4

Period scoring

TB won 1 · TOR won 2

0
1

Inn 1

Lukes 1

2
1

Inn 2

Caminero 1

Clement 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
2

Inn 5

Lukes 2

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

TB
TOR

Play-by-play · 561 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    TB 2·TOR 4

  2. T9

    Díaz grounded out to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TB 2·TOR 4

    +8pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TB 2·TOR 4

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 2·TOR 4

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TB 2·TOR 4

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TB 2·TOR 4

  7. T9

    Simpson stole second.

    · ·

    TB 2·TOR 4

  8. T9

    Simpson stole second.

    · ·

    TB 2·TOR 4

  9. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TB 2·TOR 4

  10. T9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Yandy Diaz

    · ·

    TB 2·TOR 4

  11. T9

    · ·

    TB 2·TOR 4

  12. T9

    Simpson grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Feduccia out at second, J. Lowe to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TB 2·TOR 4

    +8pp

  13. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TB 2·TOR 4

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    TB 2·TOR 4

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TB 2·TOR 4

  16. T9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Chandler Simpson

    · ·

    TB 2·TOR 4

  17. T9

    · ·

    TB 2·TOR 4

  18. T9

    Feduccia walked, J. Lowe to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TB 2·TOR 4

    −9pp

  19. T9

    Pitch 8 : Ball 4

    · ·

    TB 2·TOR 4

  20. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TB 2·TOR 4

  21. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TB 2·TOR 4

  22. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    TB 2·TOR 4

  23. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TB 2·TOR 4

  24. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    TB 2·TOR 4

  25. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TB 2·TOR 4

  26. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    TB 2·TOR 4

  27. T9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Hunter Feduccia

    · ·

    TB 2·TOR 4

  28. T9

    · ·

    TB 2·TOR 4

  29. T9

    Williams flied out to center.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TB 2·TOR 4

    +6pp

  30. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TB 2·TOR 4

Team stats

TB

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

2

Runs

4

6

Hits

7

0

Errors

0

12

TB

12

2

HR

1

5

BB

3

8

K

7

16

LOB

9

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 12 players in cohort
  • Chandler SimpsonTB · LF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Jake MangumPIT · LF
    SPRINT2993

Player projections

TOR vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Dylan CeaseTOR
    8.5± 2.9low
  • Drew RasmussenTB
    6.0± 4.2low
  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.5± 2.0low

Hits

  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.5± 1.3high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.3± 1.0high
  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.2± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.1± 1.7high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.3high
  • Junior CamineroTB
    1.8± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Ryan ViladeTB
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Brandon ValenzuelaTOR
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Max ScherzerTOR
    4.2± 4.0low
  • Simeon Woods RichardsonTOR
    3.2± 3.3low
  • Steven MatzTB
    2.6± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.4%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    61.8%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    61.5%

    P(TOR win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    62.3%

    P(TOR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.33 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.