HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 9
  • MLBBot 2
    COL 0@ATH 0
    +8.4ppmedium
  • MLBTop 2
    CHC 0@SF 0
    -12.4pphigh
  • MLBTop 9
    ARI 3@CIN 2
    -51.2pplow
  • MLBTop 7
    STL 3@MIN 4
    +41.4ppmedium
  • MLBBot 6
    ATL 3@NYM 7
    +58.9pplow
  • MLBBot 7
    HOU 9@KC 5
    -49.3pplow
  • MLBTop 4
    TB 0@LAA 4
    +62.6pplow
  • MLBTop 6
    SEA 8@WSH 1
    -47.4pplow
  • WNBA8:05 - 2nd
    GS 26@SEA 25
    +3.4pphigh
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3TOR
TOR

TOR

90-66

8
5
KC

KC

78-78

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri
32,936 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TOR

TOR

league avg

KC

KC

.701

OPS

◀

.715

.692

.313

OBP

.319

.315

4.11

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.91

4.08

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.45

1.27

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.39

9.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

TOR 8 · KC 5 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TOR +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TOR0300300208
KC0002210005

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

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Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

68%Last 7 · 67-32
62%Last 30 · 305-190
Receipts →
MLB·Sun, Sep 21·Final/SeriesKC wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Toronto Blue Jays went into Kansas City Royals and beat them, 8–5.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1M. WachaKC−52.8pp
  2. 2E. ClementTOR+51.3pp
  3. 3M. GarciaKC+34.4pp

TOR · top performer

TOR
George Springer

George Springer

DH

1.100OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

KC · top performer

KC
Mike Yastrzemski

Mike Yastrzemski

LF

1.100OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
G. SpringerDH
.3074021011
D. VarshoCF
.2365110001
V. Guerrero Jr.1B
.2995122000
A. BargerRF
.2463011001
D. SchneiderLF
.2393000010
N. LukesRF
.2503100001
E. Clement2B
.2794221000
A. GimenezSS
.2094122001
T. HeinemanC
.2953111000
- M. StrawRF
.2622110000
- J. LoperfidoLF
.3370000000
- T. France1B
.2771000000
- I. Kiner-Falefa2B
.2400000000
Team378128025

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
T. YesavageSP
4.05443276
B. LittleRP
1.24110023
S. DominguezRP
1.10000214
E. LauerSP
1.0000007
J. HoffmanRP
1.01000011
Team9.0105534131

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
M. YastrzemskiLF
.2254120010
B. Witt Jr.SS
.2925010001
V. Pasquantino1B
.2694200010
M. Garcia3B
.2854121001
S. PerezC
.2404011001
A. Frazier2B
.2773010000
C. JensenC
.3004012000
J. CaglianoneRF
.1643110011
J. RaveRF
.2032000000
- J. India2B
.2351000000
- R. GrichukRF
.1982011000
Team365105034

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
M. WachaSP
5.08661489
S. CruzRP
1.0000017
J. BowlanRP
1.01000016
A. ZerpaRP
0.21110014
J. SchreiberRP
0.1211008
L. AvilaRP
1.00001013
Team9.0128825147

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TOR

  • T. Yesavage
    76 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      43%·94.1 mph·14% whiff
    • FS
      32%·83.9 mph·46% whiff
    • SL
      25%·88.6 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Little
    23 pitches·22% CSW
    • FC
      43%·93.2 mph·29% whiff
    • KC
      30%·86.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      26%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Dominguez
    14 pitches·50% CSW
    • FF
      57%·97.3 mph·75% whiff
    • ST
      29%·86.1 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      14%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Hoffman
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • SL
      36%·86.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      27%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      18%·94.5 mph·— whiff
    • FS
      18%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Lauer
    7 pitches·43% CSW
    • FF
      43%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      43%·82.4 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      14%·75.5 mph·100% whiff

KC

  • M. Wacha
    89 pitches·22% CSW
    • CH
      28%·79.6 mph·13% whiff
    • FC
      25%·88.1 mph·8% whiff
    • FF
      18%·92.9 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      18%·92.7 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      9%·84.5 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      2%·74.7 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Bowlan
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      44%·95.4 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      19%·80.6 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      19%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      13%·85.6 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      6%·87.8 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Zerpa
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      71%·95.0 mph·29% whiff
    • SL
      21%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      7%·95.3 mph·— whiff
  • L. Avila
    13 pitches·15% CSW
    • SI
      46%·95.1 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      23%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      15%·81.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      15%·82.6 mph·— whiff
  • J. Schreiber
    8 pitches·13% CSW
    • FF
      38%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      38%·83.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      13%·85.0 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      13%·92.5 mph·— whiff
  • S. Cruz
    7 pitches·43% CSW
    • FF
      57%·98.6 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      29%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      14%·90.4 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

10

8

Runs

5

0

Errors

0

Current series

KC wins series 2-1

Sep 19TORTOR1@KCKC20
Sep 20TORTOR1@KCKC2
Sep 21TORTOR8@KCKC5today

Season series

KC wins series 4-2

Aug 1KCKC9@TORTOR3
Aug 2KCKC2@TORTOR4
Aug 3KCKC7@TORTOR4
Sep 19TORTOR1@KCKC20
Sep 20TORTOR1@KCKC2
Sep 21TORTOR8@KCKC5today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTOR ↔ KC

Biggest swing: 20pp · Bottom 4th Inning

TORTOR
G. Springer

G. Springer

DH

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.100 OPS

T. Yesavage

T. Yesavage

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 2 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

KCKC
M. Yastrzemski

M. Yastrzemski

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.100 OPS

M. Wacha

M. Wacha

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 6 ER · 8 H · 1 BB

How it ended

TOR beat KC 8-5. Jensen's play in the bottom 4th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (20pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

KC vs TOR

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TORTop 2nd Inning · 1-0
+14pp→ 60% WP

Gim · énez singled to right, Lukes scored, Clement to third.

KCBottom 4th Inning · 3-2
+20pp→ 46% WP

Jensen · singled to right, Garcia scored and Pasquantino scored, Frazier to third.

TORTop 5th Inning · 5-2
+18pp→ 84% WP

Guerrero Jr. · doubled to center, Varsho scored and Heineman scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TOR0300300208
KC0002210005

Period scoring

TOR won 3 · KC won 2

0
0

Inn 1

3
0

Inn 2

Gim 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
2

Inn 4

Jensen 2

3
2

Inn 5

Jr. 2

Garcia 1

0
1

Inn 6

Grichuk 1

0
0

Inn 7

2
0

Inn 8

Clement 1

0
0

Inn 9

TOR
KC

Play-by-play · 577 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    TOR 8·KC 5

  2. B9

    · ·

    TOR 8·KC 5

  3. B9

    Pasquantino grounded out to second.

    · ·

    TOR 8·KC 5

    −2pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 8·KC 5

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 8·KC 5

  6. B9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Vinnie Pasquantino

    · ·

    TOR 8·KC 5

  7. B9

    · ·

    TOR 8·KC 5

  8. B9

    Witt Jr. grounded out to shortstop.

    · ·

    TOR 8·KC 5

    −3pp

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 8·KC 5

  10. B9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Bobby Witt Jr.

    · ·

    TOR 8·KC 5

  11. B9

    ·

    TOR 8·KC 5

  12. B9

    Yastrzemski doubled to right.

    ·

    TOR 8·KC 5

    +3pp

  13. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TOR 8·KC 5

  14. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TOR 8·KC 5

  15. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    TOR 8·KC 5

  16. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    TOR 8·KC 5

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    TOR 8·KC 5

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TOR 8·KC 5

  19. B9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Mike Yastrzemski

    ·

    TOR 8·KC 5

  20. B9

    ·

    TOR 8·KC 5

  21. B9

    Grichuk grounded out to third.

    ·

    TOR 8·KC 5

    −2pp

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TOR 8·KC 5

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TOR 8·KC 5

  24. B9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Randal Grichuk

    ·

    TOR 8·KC 5

  25. B9

    Hoffman relieved Lauer

    ·

    TOR 8·KC 5

  26. B9

    Loperfido in left field.

    TOR 8·KC 5

  27. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    TOR 8·KC 5

  28. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    TOR 8·KC 5

  29. T9

    · ·

    TOR 8·KC 5

  30. T9

    Straw lined out to right.

    · ·

    TOR 8·KC 5

    +0.6pp

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

KC

Home

8

Runs

5

12

Hits

10

0

Errors

0

17

TB

13

0

HR

0

2

BB

3

5

K

4

14

LOB

16

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 15 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Myles StrawTOR · RF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Joey LoperfidoHOU · LF
    SPRINT28.688

Player projections

KC vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Dylan CeaseTOR
    8.5± 2.9low
  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.5± 2.0low
  • Noah CameronKC
    5.3± 2.5low

Hits

  • Jac CaglianoneKC
    1.4± 1.3high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.3± 1.0high
  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.2± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Jac CaglianoneKC
    2.3± 2.8high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.3high
  • Michael MasseyKC
    1.9± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Jac CaglianoneKC
    0.6± 1.0high
  • Michael MasseyKC
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Brandon ValenzuelaTOR
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Max ScherzerTOR
    4.2± 4.0low
  • Simeon Woods RichardsonTOR
    3.2± 3.3low
  • Michael WachaKC
    2.9± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

42.7%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    47.4%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    46.7%

    P(KC win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    46.9%

    P(KC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.29 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.