MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+6NYY

NYY

88-68

BAL

73-83

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland

31,974 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

42.8%

ensemble · NYY favored

Elo Static
46.8%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
47.3%
P(BAL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
47.2%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.22 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BAL vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

Ryan WeathersNYY
6.7± 3.3low
Cam SchlittlerNYY
6.1± 2.4low
Will WarrenNYY
6.0± 3.3low

Hits

Taylor WardBAL
1.2± 1.1high
Paul GoldschmidtNYY
1.2± 0.8high
Adley RutschmanBAL
1.1± 1.3high

Total bases

Pete AlonsoBAL
2.1± 2.0high
Paul GoldschmidtNYY
2.0± 2.0high
Adley RutschmanBAL
1.9± 2.9high

RBIs

Adley RutschmanBAL
1.1± 1.6high
Paul GoldschmidtNYY
0.9± 1.4high
Pete AlonsoBAL
0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

Trevor RogersBAL
3.7± 2.4low
Shane BazBAL
2.7± 2.3low
Ryan WeathersNYY
2.6± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYY

league avg

BAL

.764

OPS

◀

.715

.727

.331

OBP

◀

.319

.324

5.10

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.76

3.36

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.53

1.18

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.40

8.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

NYY 7 · BAL 1 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R
NYY	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	6	7
BAL	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 10th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
T. GrishamCF	.237	5	2	0	0	0	1	4
A. JudgeRF	.326	4	1	0	0	0	1	1
C. BellingerLF	.271	5	1	1	0	0	0	2
B. Rice1B	.252	5	1	4	5	1	0	0
J. DominguezLF	.257	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. Chisholm Jr.2B	.242	4	1	1	1	1	1	3
J. CaballeroSS	.274	5	1	2	0	0	0	1
A. WellsC	.215	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. McMahon3B	.205	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
A. SlaterRF	.130	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. Goldschmidt1B	.278	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
G. StantonDH	.268	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. VolpeSS	.211	2	0	1	1	0	0	1
Team		40	7	10	7	2	6	17

Player

AVG

RBI

.237

.326

.271

.252

.257

.242

.274

.215

.205

.130

.278

.268

.211

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
C. SchlittlerSP	5.1	3	1	1	1	6	89
T. HillRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	8
F. CruzRP	0.1	1	0	0	1	1	15
L. WeaverRP	0.1	0	0	0	1	0	11
D. WilliamsRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	14
D. BednarRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	16
C. DovalRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	20
Team	10.0	4	1	1	6	13	173

Player

5.1

1.0

0.1

0.1

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

10.0

173

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. Holliday2B	.247	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
D. BeaversRF	.256	4	0	0	0	0	1	2
G. HendersonSS	.273	4	0	0	0	0	1	2
R. Mountcastle1B	.252	5	0	0	0	0	0	4
S. BasalloC	.188	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
J. Jackson2B	.281	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
C. CowserRF	.198	2	0	0	0	0	2	2
C. Mayo3B	.208	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
D. CarlsonLF	.205	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
L. VazquezSS	.160	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Westburg3B	.260	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	1	4	1	1	6	13

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
K. BradishSP	6.0	2	1	1	2	9	91
D. EnnsRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	18
R. GarciaRP	1.0	2	0	0	1	1	14
K. StrowdRP	1.0	0	2	1	1	3	20
K. AkinRP	0.1	3	3	3	0	1	17
Y. HiraldoRP	0.2	2	1	1	1	1	15
Team	10.0	10	7	6	6	17	175

Team

NYY

BAL

3 sub-models, blended.

BAL vs NYY.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BAL vs NYY.

3 sub-models, blended.