MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5NYY

NYY

87-68

BAL

73-82

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland

37,675 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

43.1%

ensemble · NYY favored

Elo Static
48.2%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
46.3%
P(BAL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
48.5%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.97 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BAL vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

Ryan WeathersNYY
6.7± 3.3low
Cam SchlittlerNYY
6.1± 2.4low
Will WarrenNYY
6.0± 3.3low

Hits

Taylor WardBAL
1.2± 1.1high
Paul GoldschmidtNYY
1.2± 0.8high
Adley RutschmanBAL
1.1± 1.3high

Total bases

Pete AlonsoBAL
2.1± 2.0high
Paul GoldschmidtNYY
2.0± 2.0high
Adley RutschmanBAL
1.9± 2.9high

RBIs

Adley RutschmanBAL
1.1± 1.6high
Paul GoldschmidtNYY
0.9± 1.4high
Pete AlonsoBAL
0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

Trevor RogersBAL
3.7± 2.4low
Shane BazBAL
2.7± 2.3low
Ryan WeathersNYY
2.6± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYY

league avg

BAL

.764

OPS

◀

.715

.727

.331

OBP

◀

.319

.324

5.10

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.76

3.36

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.53

1.18

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.40

8.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

NYY 6 · BAL 1 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYY	3	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	6
BAL	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
T. GrishamCF	.240	5	0	2	1	0	0	2
B. Rice1B	.245	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. JudgeRF	.329	4	2	2	1	1	0	0
C. BellingerLF	.272	3	2	1	0	0	1	1
G. StantonDH	.268	3	1	1	3	1	1	2
J. Chisholm Jr.2B	.242	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
P. Goldschmidt1B	.279	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
R. McMahon3B	.207	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. VolpeSS	.210	3	1	2	0	0	1	1
Team		34	6	10	6	2	3	10

Player

AVG

RBI

.240

.245

.329

.272

.268

.242

.279

.207

.210

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
C. RodonSP	7.0	4	1	1	1	8	96
L. WeaverRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	15
D. BednarRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	6
Team	9.0	4	1	1	1	11	117

Player

C. RodonSP

7.0

L. WeaverRP

1.0

D. BednarRP

1.0

Team

9.0

117

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. Holliday2B	.247	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Westburg3B	.261	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
G. HendersonSS	.275	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. O'NeillRF	.198	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
R. Mountcastle1B	.256	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
J. Jackson2B	.278	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Mayo3B	.207	3	0	2	1	0	0	0
A. JacksonC	.227	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. MateoSS	.184	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		31	1	4	1	0	1	11

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
T. SuganoSP	3.0	6	4	4	1	3	87
J. CastilloRP	1.1	1	1	1	2	3	33
Y. CanoRP	1.2	2	1	1	0	0	20
J. EspadaRP	3.0	1	0	0	0	4	29
Team	9.0	10	6	6	3	10	169

Team

NYY

BAL

3 sub-models, blended.

BAL vs NYY.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BAL vs NYY.

3 sub-models, blended.