MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+19KC

TOR

89-65

120

77-77

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri

26,459 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

42.3%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
44.3%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
45.0%
P(KC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
43.8%
P(KC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.49 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

KC vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.9low
Trey YesavageTOR
5.5± 2.0low
Noah CameronKC
5.3± 2.5low

Hits

Jac CaglianoneKC
1.4± 1.3high
Ernie ClementTOR
1.3± 1.0high
Nathan LukesTOR
1.2± 0.7high

Total bases

Jac CaglianoneKC
2.3± 2.8high
Ernie ClementTOR
2.1± 2.3high
Michael MasseyKC
1.9± 2.3high

RBIs

Jac CaglianoneKC
0.6± 1.0high
Michael MasseyKC
0.6± 0.8high
Brandon ValenzuelaTOR
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Max ScherzerTOR
4.2± 4.0low
Simeon Woods RichardsonTOR
3.2± 3.3low
Michael WachaKC
2.9± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TOR

league avg

.702

OPS

◀

.715

.692

.314

OBP

.319

.315

4.13

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.91

4.08

Team ERA

◀

4.16

4.45

1.27

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.39

9.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

TOR 1 · KC 20 (by 19)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TOR +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TOR	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
KC	7	0	3	0	0	0	4	6	20

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
G. SpringerDH	.306	3	1	2	1	1	1	0
N. LukesRF	.253	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
V. Guerrero Jr.1B	.298	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. BargerRF	.246	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. KirkC	.287	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
D. VarshoCF	.235	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. SchneiderLF	.247	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
A. GimenezSS	.205	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
E. Clement2B	.279	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. StrawRF	.262	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. France1B	.281	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. LoperfidoLF	.337	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
I. Kiner-Falefa2B	.261	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	1	3	1	1	3	5

Player

AVG

RBI

.306

.253

.298

.246

.287

.235

.247

.205

.279

.262

.281

.337

.261

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
M. ScherzerSP	0.2	7	7	7	1	2	45
B. FisherRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	22
T. NanceRP	2.0	4	3	3	1	3	40
Y. RodriguezRP	1.2	2	0	0	3	1	37
B. LittleRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	4
T. HeinemanC	1.1	13	10	10	0	0	33
I. Kiner-Falefa2B	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	7
Team	8.0	27	20	20	5	6	188

Player

0.2

1.1

2.0

1.2

0.1

1.1

0.2

Team

8.0

188

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
C. JensenC	.344	7	2	3	2	0	0	0
B. Witt Jr.SS	.292	5	1	2	1	0	0	0
V. Pasquantino1B	.270	4	1	4	2	0	0	0
M. Garcia3B	.285	2	1	0	0	0	2	0
S. PerezC	.240	4	1	2	3	1	0	0
A. Frazier2B	.280	6	2	2	1	0	0	1
J. CaglianoneRF	.163	5	3	2	4	1	1	3
M. Massey2B	.231	5	2	4	3	1	1	0
J. RaveRF	.206	5	0	2	1	0	1	2
J. India2B	.235	2	2	1	0	0	0	0
R. GrichukRF	.193	2	1	2	0	0	0	0
T. Tolbert2B	.295	2	2	1	0	0	0	0
L. MaileC	.256	2	2	2	3	0	0	0
Team		51	20	27	20	3	5	6

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
M. LorenzenSP	7.2	3	1	1	3	4	113
L. AvilaRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	14
Team	9.0	3	1	1	3	5	127

Team

TOR

—

3 sub-models, blended.

KC vs TOR.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

KC vs TOR.

3 sub-models, blended.