• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+3TOR
TOR

TOR

80-59

12
9
CIN

CIN

70-69

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio
20,769 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

TOR 12 · CIN 9 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TOR +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TOR44020010112
CIN1502000109

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 61-39
62%Last 30 · 322-200
Receipts →

Player projections

CIN vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.5± 3.8low
  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.8± 2.2low
  • Kevin GausmanTOR
    4.9± 2.2low

Hits

  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.3± 1.1medium
  • Sal StewartCIN
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.3± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    2.2± 1.7high
  • Sal StewartCIN
    2.2± 2.7high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Elly De La CruzCIN
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.5± 3.4low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.3± 2.3low
  • Brady SingerCIN
    3.2± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.6%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    47.3%

    P(CIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    47.3%

    P(CIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    48.1%

    P(CIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.38 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 3, 25sim 97
    1413
    17(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 19, 25sim 94
    211
    30(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 16, 25sim 94
    1212
    7(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 19, 25sim 93
    141
    7(H)20
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 15, 25sim 92
    1211
    21(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 4, 25sim 92
    107
    18(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, Sep 2·Final/SeriesTOR wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Toronto Blue Jays went into Cincinnati Reds and beat them, 12–9.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

TOR
George Springer

George Springer

DH

3.050OPS

4-3

AB-H

3

R

3

RBI

CIN · top performer

CIN
TJ Friedl

TJ Friedl

CF

1.400OPS

5-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Toronto Blue Jays at Cincinnati Reds · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TOR80-59
12
9
CIN70-69
TOR80-59·CIN70-69
TOR

TOR

80-59

12
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
3-44333210
SPRINT25.920
N. LukesN. Lukes★RF
0-44000001
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
3-44331010
SPRINT26.123
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
1-44213111
SPRINT25.716
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
1-44211112
SPRINT26.838
A. KirkA. Kirk★C
2-44023011
D. SchneiderD. Schneider★LF
0-44000003
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
1-33010001
I. Kiner-FalefaI. Kiner-Falefa★2B
0-33200001
M. StrawM. StrawRF
0-11000000
A. BargerA. BargerRF
0-11000000
T. FranceT. France1B
1-11010000
Team12-37371212114510
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. BerriosJ. Berrios★SP
2.0562221
D. TateD. TateRP
1.0100010
E. LauerE. LauerSP
2.1522020
L. VarlandL. VarlandRP
1.2100010
S. DominguezS. DominguezRP
1.0211021
J. HoffmanJ. HoffmanRP
1.0100010
Team9.01595292
CIN

CIN

70-69

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. FriedlT. Friedl★CF
2-55221101
SPRINT26.838
N. MarteN. Marte★RF
2-55220001
SPRINT28.992
E. De La CruzE. De La Cruz★SS
1-44111010
SPRINT2872
A. HaysA. Hays★LF
2-55224101
SPRINT27.354
G. LuxG. Lux★LF
1-44011011
S. StewartS. Stewart★1B
1-55010001
K. HayesK. Hayes★3B
2-55020002
J. TrevinoJ. Trevino★C
2-44120001
M. McLainM. McLain★2B
2-44121001
SPRINT28.586
W. BensonW. BensonRF
0-11000000
Team15-42429158229
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. BarlowS. Barlow★RP
1.0244311
B. SuterB. SuterRP
2.1566042
Z. MaxwellZ. MaxwellUN
1.2200010
C. PhillipsC. PhillipsRP
2.0111021
R. SanmartinR. SanmartinRP
1.2210120
Y. ZuluetaY. ZuluetaRP
0.1000100
Team9.01212115104

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TOR

  • J. Berrios
    66 pitches·23% CSW
    • SI
      47%·92.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SV
      23%·83.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·85.2 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      11%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      6%·90.4 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Lauer
    50 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      44%·91.2 mph·13% whiff
    • CU
      28%·74.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      12%·84.7 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      12%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      4%·86.8 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Tate
    21 pitches·38% CSW
    • ST
      67%·81.3 mph·29% whiff
    • SI
      33%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Dominguez
    21 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      38%·98.4 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      38%·86.5 mph·60% whiff
    • FS
      19%·87.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      5%·99.2 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Hoffman
    18 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      33%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·87.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      28%·89.4 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      6%·97.0 mph·— whiff
  • L. Varland
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • KC
      60%·88.1 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      40%·97.6 mph·25% whiff

CIN

  • B. Suter
    43 pitches·35% CSW
    • FF
      35%·87.9 mph·22% whiff
    • SI
      33%·89.1 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      16%·78.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      16%·79.2 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Barlow
    34 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      32%·90.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      24%·82.7 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      18%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      18%·80.7 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      9%·77.5 mph·— whiff
  • R. Sanmartin
    25 pitches·20% CSW
    • CH
      48%·87.8 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      28%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      12%·93.1 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      12%·84.9 mph·33% whiff
  • C. Phillips
    24 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      50%·98.7 mph·14% whiff
    • ST
      33%·86.0 mph·60% whiff
    • CU
      17%·86.7 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Zulueta
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • SI
      67%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      17%·88.8 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      17%·88.4 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

15

12

Runs

9

1

Errors

0

Current series

TOR wins series 2-1

Sep 1TORTOR4@CINCIN5
Sep 2TORTOR12@CINCIN9today
Sep 3TORTOR13@CINCIN9

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Sep 1TORTOR4@CINCIN5
Sep 2TORTOR12@CINCIN9today
Sep 3TORTOR13@CINCIN9

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTOR ↔ CIN

Biggest swing: 20pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

TORTOR
G. Springer

G. Springer

DH

Batter of the game2-HR game

3-for-4 · 2 HR · 3.050 OPS

E. Lauer

E. Lauer

SP

Top reliever

2.1 IP · 2 K · 2 ER · 5 H

CINCIN
T. Friedl

T. Friedl

CF

Batter of the game

2-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.400 OPS

B. Suter

B. Suter

RP

Top reliever

2.1 IP · 4 K · 6 ER · 5 H

How it ended

TOR beat CIN 12-9. Hays's play in the bottom 2nd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (20pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

CIN vs TOR

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TORTop 1st Inning · 4-0
+15pp→ 79% WP

Kirk · doubled to center, Guerrero Jr. scored, Varsho scored and Bichette scored, Kirk thrown out at third.

CINBottom 2nd Inning · 8-6
+20pp→ 33% WP

Hays · homered to left (413 feet), Marte scored and De La Cruz scored.

TORTop 4th Inning · 10-6
+13pp→ 87% WP

Springer · homered to left center (425 feet), Kiner-Falefa scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TOR44020010112
CIN1502000109

Period scoring

TOR won 3 · CIN won 2

4
1

Inn 1

Kirk 3

Cruz 1

4
5

Inn 2

Bichette 3

Hays 3

0
0

Inn 3

2
2

Inn 4

Springer 2

Hays 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Varsho 1

0
1

Inn 8

Friedl 1

1
0

Inn 9

Barger 1

TOR
CIN

Play-by-play · 671 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    TOR 12·CIN 9

  2. B9

    · ·

    TOR 12·CIN 9

  3. B9

    Benson popped out to shortstop.

    · ·

    TOR 12·CIN 9

    −1pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 12·CIN 9

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    TOR 12·CIN 9

  6. B9

    Stewart to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    TOR 12·CIN 9

  7. B9

    Stewart to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    TOR 12·CIN 9

  8. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TOR 12·CIN 9

  9. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 12·CIN 9

  10. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    TOR 12·CIN 9

  11. B9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Will Benson

    · ·

    TOR 12·CIN 9

  12. B9

    Benson hit for Trevino

    ·

    TOR 12·CIN 9

  13. B9

    · ·

    TOR 12·CIN 9

  14. B9

    Hayes struck out looking.

    · ·

    TOR 12·CIN 9

    −3pp

  15. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    TOR 12·CIN 9

  16. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    · ·

    TOR 12·CIN 9

  17. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TOR 12·CIN 9

  18. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TOR 12·CIN 9

  19. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    TOR 12·CIN 9

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TOR 12·CIN 9

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 12·CIN 9

  22. B9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Ke'Bryan Hayes

    · ·

    TOR 12·CIN 9

  23. B9

    ·

    TOR 12·CIN 9

  24. B9

    Stewart reached on infield single to third.

    ·

    TOR 12·CIN 9

    +2pp

  25. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TOR 12·CIN 9

  26. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    TOR 12·CIN 9

  27. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TOR 12·CIN 9

  28. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    TOR 12·CIN 9

  29. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TOR 12·CIN 9

  30. B9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Sal Stewart

    ·

    TOR 12·CIN 9

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

CIN

Home

12

Runs

9

12

Hits

15

1

Errors

0

26

TB

26

4

HR

2

5

BB

2

10

K

9

12

LOB

18

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 14 players in cohort
  • Myles StrawTOR · RF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Noelvi MarteCIN · RF
    SPRINT28.992
  • Elly De La CruzCIN · SS
    SPRINT2872