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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4TOR
TOR

TOR

81-59

13
9
CIN

CIN

70-70

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio
17,134 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

TOR 13 · CIN 9 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TOR +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TOR00123114113
CIN0500001309

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 61-39
62%Last 30 · 322-200
Receipts →

Player projections

CIN vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.5± 3.8low
  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.8± 2.2low
  • Kevin GausmanTOR
    4.9± 2.2low

Hits

  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.3± 1.1medium
  • Sal StewartCIN
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.3± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    2.2± 1.7high
  • Sal StewartCIN
    2.2± 2.7high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Elly De La CruzCIN
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.5± 3.4low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.3± 2.3low
  • Brady SingerCIN
    3.2± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.5%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    46.1%

    P(CIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    45.8%

    P(CIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    46.9%

    P(CIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.47 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 2, 25sim 97
    1412
    17(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 19, 25sim 94
    141
    7(H)20
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 19, 25sim 93
    211
    30(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 15, 25sim 91
    1211
    21(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 30, 25sim 91
    149
    1(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 25, 25sim 91
    223
    21(H)13
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Sep 3·Final/SeriesTOR wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Toronto Blue Jays went into Cincinnati Reds and beat them, 13–9.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

TOR
George Springer

George Springer

DH

1.917OPS

4-2

AB-H

3

R

1

RBI

CIN · top performer

CIN
Will Benson

Will Benson

RF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Toronto Blue Jays at Cincinnati Reds · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TOR81-59
13
9
CIN70-70
TOR81-59·CIN70-70
TOR

TOR

81-59

13
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
2-44321122
SPRINT25.920
A. BargerA. Barger★RF
2-44124101
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
2-44222120
SPRINT26.123
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
0-55001011
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
3-55232101
SPRINT26.838
A. KirkA. Kirk★C
2-55121102
T. FranceT. France★1B
3-44132001
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
2-55020001
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
2-44220001
M. StrawM. StrawRF
0-11100001
Team18-41411318135511
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. BieberS. Bieber★SP
6.0555260
T. NanceT. NanceRP
0.2010000
R. BoruckiR. BoruckiRP
0.1100110
L. VarlandL. VarlandRP
0.2433020
B. LittleB. LittleRP
0.1000010
J. HoffmanJ. HoffmanRP
1.0000010
Team9.010983110
CIN

CIN

70-70

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. FriedlT. Friedl★CF
0-44000012
N. MarteN. Marte★RF
2-55023001
SPRINT28.992
E. De La CruzE. De La Cruz★SS
0-55000003
A. HaysA. Hays★LF
1-55010002
G. LuxG. Lux★LF
1-33210010
S. SteerS. Steer★LF
2-44221000
SPRINT28.483
K. HayesK. Hayes★3B
0-22100011
J. TrevinoJ. Trevino★C
1-33112000
SPRINT23.40
M. McLainM. McLain★2B
2-44222001
SPRINT28.586
S. StewartS. Stewart1B
0-11000001
W. BensonW. BensonRF
1-11111000
Team10-373791090311
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Z. LittellZ. Littell★SP
4.1755164
N. MartinezN. MartinezSP
1.2422111
L. RichardsonL. RichardsonRP
1.0333100
Y. ZuluetaY. ZuluetaRP
1.0222120
Z. MaxwellZ. MaxwellUN
1.0211120
Team9.01813135115

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TOR

  • S. Bieber
    98 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      41%·93.2 mph·19% whiff
    • SL
      17%·86.3 mph·38% whiff
    • KC
      16%·82.9 mph·14% whiff
    • FC
      13%·88.3 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      12%·89.7 mph·57% whiff
  • R. Borucki
    20 pitches·35% CSW
    • SL
      50%·87.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      30%·84.9 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      15%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      5%·82.9 mph·— whiff
  • L. Varland
    19 pitches·53% CSW
    • FF
      53%·98.1 mph·67% whiff
    • KC
      42%·88.4 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      5%·96.4 mph·— whiff
  • J. Hoffman
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      31%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      31%·96.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      23%·88.3 mph·100% whiff
    • FS
      15%·90.2 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Nance
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • CU
      40%·85.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      30%·94.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      30%·89.5 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Little
    5 pitches·40% CSW
    • KC
      60%·88.0 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      40%·92.9 mph·0% whiff

CIN

  • Z. Littell
    88 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      33%·92.8 mph·31% whiff
    • SI
      23%·92.3 mph·30% whiff
    • FS
      20%·83.6 mph·10% whiff
    • SL
      20%·87.5 mph·14% whiff
    • ST
      3%·79.4 mph·— whiff
  • L. Richardson
    25 pitches·20% CSW
    • CH
      32%·86.4 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      32%·94.9 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      20%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      16%·80.2 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Zulueta
    24 pitches·38% CSW
    • SI
      42%·97.6 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      29%·87.3 mph·75% whiff
    • FF
      25%·98.1 mph·75% whiff
    • CH
      4%·89.6 mph·0% whiff
  • N. Martinez
    23 pitches·30% CSW
    • FC
      43%·90.2 mph·29% whiff
    • FF
      26%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      13%·80.4 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      9%·78.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      9%·93.4 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

18

Hits

10

13

Runs

9

1

Errors

0

Current series

TOR wins series 2-1

Sep 1TORTOR4@CINCIN5
Sep 2TORTOR12@CINCIN9
Sep 3TORTOR13@CINCIN9today

Season series

TOR wins series 2-1

Sep 1TORTOR4@CINCIN5
Sep 2TORTOR12@CINCIN9
Sep 3TORTOR13@CINCIN9today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTOR ↔ CIN

Biggest swing: 23pp · Top 5th Inning

TORTOR
G. Springer

G. Springer

DH

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.917 OPS

S. Bieber

S. Bieber

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 6 K · 5 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

CINCIN
W. Benson

W. Benson

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

Z. Littell

Z. Littell

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 6 K · 5 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

How it ended

TOR beat CIN 13-9. Barger's play in the top 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (23pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

CIN vs TOR

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CINBottom 2nd Inning · 0-2
+15pp→ 74% WP

Trevino · singled to center, Lux scored and Steer scored, Hayes to second.

TORTop 5th Inning · 5-5
+23pp→ 50% WP

Barger · homered to right center (376 feet), Springer scored.

TORTop 8th Inning · 8-6
+14pp→ 90% WP

Clement · doubled to left.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TOR00123114113
CIN0500001309

Period scoring

TOR won 6 · CIN won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
5

Inn 2

Trevino 2

1
0

Inn 3

Springer 1

2
0

Inn 4

Varsho 1

3
0

Inn 5

Barger 2

1
0

Inn 6

Barger 1

1
1

Inn 7

France 1

Marte 1

4
3

Inn 8

Barger 1

Steer 1

1
0

Inn 9

Jr. 1

TOR
CIN

Play-by-play · 679 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    TOR 13·CIN 9

  2. B9

    ·

    TOR 13·CIN 9

  3. B9

    Hays flied out to right.

    ·

    TOR 13·CIN 9

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TOR 13·CIN 9

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    TOR 13·CIN 9

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    TOR 13·CIN 9

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    TOR 13·CIN 9

  8. B9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Austin Hays

    ·

    TOR 13·CIN 9

  9. B9

    ·

    TOR 13·CIN 9

  10. B9

    De La Cruz flied out to left.

    ·

    TOR 13·CIN 9

    −0.5pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TOR 13·CIN 9

  12. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    TOR 13·CIN 9

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TOR 13·CIN 9

  14. B9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Elly De La Cruz

    ·

    TOR 13·CIN 9

  15. B9

    ·

    TOR 13·CIN 9

  16. B9

    Marte struck out swinging.

    ·

    TOR 13·CIN 9

    −1pp

  17. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    TOR 13·CIN 9

  18. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TOR 13·CIN 9

  19. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TOR 13·CIN 9

  20. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    TOR 13·CIN 9

  21. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TOR 13·CIN 9

  22. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TOR 13·CIN 9

  23. B9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Noelvi Marte

    ·

    TOR 13·CIN 9

  24. B9

    Hoffman relieved Little

    ·

    TOR 13·CIN 9

  25. B9

    Straw in left field.

    TOR 13·CIN 9

  26. B9

    Lukes in right field.

    TOR 13·CIN 9

  27. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    TOR 13·CIN 9

  28. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    TOR 13·CIN 9

  29. T9

    · ·

    TOR 13·CIN 9

  30. T9

    Varsho lined out to right.

    · ·

    TOR 13·CIN 9

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

CIN

Home

13

Runs

9

18

Hits

10

1

Errors

0

36

TB

14

5

HR

0

5

BB

3

11

K

11

17

LOB

9

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 12 players in cohort
  • Myles StrawTOR · RF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Noelvi MarteCIN · RF
    SPRINT28.992
  • Spencer SteerCIN · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Elly De La CruzCIN · SS
    SPRINT2872