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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3HOU
TEX

TEX

79-74

2
5
HOU

HOU

84-69

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas
33,084 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

TEX 2 · HOU 5 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked HOU +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TEX0200000002
HOU202010005

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 62-39
62%Last 30 · 323-200
Receipts →
MLB·Wed, Sep 17·Final/SeriesHOU wins series 4-2

Recap · MLB

Houston Astros held off Texas Rangers, 5–2.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TEX · top performer

TEX
Ezequiel Duran

Ezequiel Duran

2B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

HOU · top performer

HOU
Jeremy Pena

Jeremy Pena

SS

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Texas Rangers at Houston Astros · final

MLB · Box scoreADVANCED

Final
TEX79-74
2
5
HOU84-69
TEX79-74·HOU84-69
TEX

TEX

79-74

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. SmithJ. Smith★2B
0-33000000
W. LangfordW. Langford★LF
0-33000010
J. PedersonJ. Pederson★DH
1-33010000
SPRINT25.716
R. TellezR. Tellez★1B
1-33010001
A. GarciaA. Garcia★RF
0-44000001
A. OsunaA. Osuna★LF
1-33110001
SPRINT2872
J. JungJ. Jung★3B
1-44111001
SPRINT25.920
J. HeimJ. Heim★C
0-33000000
C. FreemanC. Freeman★3B
1-22011011
E. DuranE. Duran2B
1-11010000
SPRINT28.891
D. MooreD. MooreCF
0-11000000
M. HelmanM. HelmanCF
0-11000000
Team6-3131262035
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. deGromJ. deGrom★SP
5.0655162
R. GarciaR. GarciaRP
1.0000010
S. ArmstrongS. ArmstrongRP
1.2000020
P. MatonP. MatonRP
0.1000000
Team8.0655192
HOU

HOU

84-69

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. PenaJ. Pena★SS
2-44221101
SPRINT28.483
C. CorreaC. Correa★SS
2-44220000
SPRINT27.251
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
1-44112101
SPRINT27.867
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
0-44000002
V. CaratiniV. Caratini★C
0-33000011
Y. DiazY. Diaz★C
1-33012001
SPRINT25.513
J. SanchezJ. Sanchez★RF
0-33000000
J. MeyersJ. Meyers★CF
0-33000001
Z. ColeZ. Cole★LF
0-22000001
C. SmithC. SmithRF
0-11000001
Team6-3131565219
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. JavierC. Javier★SP
6.0522140
C. KimbrelC. KimbrelRP
1.0000010
S. OkertS. OkertRP
0.2100200
B. KingB. KingRP
1.1000000
Team9.0622350

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

6

2

Runs

5

1

Errors

0

Current series

HOU wins series 4-2

Jul 12TEXTEX7@HOUHOU3
Jul 12TEXTEX4@HOUHOU5
Jul 13TEXTEX5@HOUHOU1
Sep 16TEXTEX3@HOUHOU6
Sep 17TEXTEX5@HOUHOU6
Sep 18TEXTEX2@HOUHOU5today

Season series

HOU wins series 7-6

May 16HOUHOU0@TEXTEX1
May 17HOUHOU6@TEXTEX3
May 17HOUHOU1@TEXTEX5
May 18HOUHOU4@TEXTEX3
Jul 12TEXTEX7@HOUHOU3
Jul 12TEXTEX4@HOUHOU5
Jul 13TEXTEX5@HOUHOU1
Sep 6HOUHOU3@TEXTEX4
Sep 6HOUHOU11@TEXTEX0
Sep 7HOUHOU2@TEXTEX4
Sep 16TEXTEX3@HOUHOU6
Sep 17TEXTEX5@HOUHOU6
Sep 18TEXTEX2@HOUHOU5today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTEX ↔ HOU

Biggest swing: 19pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

TEXTEX
E. Duran

E. Duran

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

J. deGrom

J. deGrom

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 5 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

HOUHOU
J. Pena

J. Pena

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

C. Javier

C. Javier

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

How it ended

HOU beat TEX 5-2. Altuve's play in the bottom 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Win probability

HOU vs TEX

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
HOUBottom 1st Inning · 0-2
+19pp→ 68% WP

Diaz · singled to left, Correa scored and Peña scored, Caratini to second.

TEXTop 2nd Inning · 1-2
+13pp→ 48% WP

Jung · doubled to left, Osuna scored.

HOUBottom 3rd Inning · 2-4
+19pp→ 74% WP

Altuve · homered to left (372 feet), Correa scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TEX0200000002
HOU20201000—5

Period scoring

TEX won 1 · HOU won 3

0
2

Inn 1

Diaz 2

2
0

Inn 2

Jung 1

0
2

Inn 3

Altuve 2

0
0

Inn 4

0
1

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

TEX
HOU

Play-by-play · 515 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    TEX 2·HOU 5

  2. T9

    Jung grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    TEX 2·HOU 5

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TEX 2·HOU 5

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    TEX 2·HOU 5

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TEX 2·HOU 5

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TEX 2·HOU 5

  7. T9

    Bryan King pitches to Josh Jung

    ·

    TEX 2·HOU 5

  8. T9

    ·

    TEX 2·HOU 5

  9. T9

    Helman fouled out to third.

    ·

    TEX 2·HOU 5

    +0.9pp

  10. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TEX 2·HOU 5

  11. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    ·

    TEX 2·HOU 5

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TEX 2·HOU 5

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    TEX 2·HOU 5

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    TEX 2·HOU 5

  15. T9

    Bryan King pitches to Michael Helman

    ·

    TEX 2·HOU 5

  16. T9

    Helman hit for Osuna

    ·

    TEX 2·HOU 5

  17. T9

    ·

    TEX 2·HOU 5

  18. T9

    A. García grounded out to pitcher.

    · ·

    TEX 2·HOU 5

    +1pp

  19. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TEX 2·HOU 5

  20. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TEX 2·HOU 5

  21. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TEX 2·HOU 5

  22. T9

    Bryan King pitches to Adolis Garcia

    · ·

    TEX 2·HOU 5

  23. T9

    Dubón at second base.

    TEX 2·HOU 5

  24. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    TEX 2·HOU 5

  25. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    TEX 2·HOU 5

  26. B8

    ·

    TEX 2·HOU 5

  27. B8

    Caratini grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    TEX 2·HOU 5

  28. B8

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TEX 2·HOU 5

  29. B8

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    TEX 2·HOU 5

  30. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TEX 2·HOU 5

Team stats

TEX

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

2

Runs

5

6

Hits

6

1

Errors

0

7

TB

13

0

HR

2

3

BB

1

5

K

9

9

LOB

9

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 14 players in cohort
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX · 2B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Jeremy PenaHOU · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Wyatt LangfordTEX · LF
    SPRINT2872

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 25, 25sim 98
    198
    29(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 24, 25sim 97
    194
    29(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 25, 25sim 96
    195
    29(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 27, 25sim 95
    253
    12(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 3, 25sim 95
    107
    18(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 18, 25sim 95
    107
    1(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

HOU vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    6.0± 2.5low
  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low

Hits

  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.1± 0.8low
  • Josh JungTEX
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Cam SmithHOU
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.0± 2.9high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.9± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.7± 1.4high

Earned runs

  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low
  • Tatsuya ImaiHOU
    2.7± 3.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.6%

ensemble · TEX favored

  • Elo Static

    51.0%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    49.1%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    51.3%

    P(HOU win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.97 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.