HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 4
  • MLBBot 7
    TB 2@LAA 4
    +61.4pplow
  • MLBTop 6
    COL 0@ATH 2
    +32.2pplow
  • MLBTop 5
    CHC 5@SF 0
    -56.9pplow
  • WNBA44.4 - 3rd
    GS 62@SEA 50
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2CLE
CLE

CLE

81-71

3
1
DET

DET

85-68

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan
34,267 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CLE

CLE

league avg

DET

DET

.689

OPS

.715

▶

.706

.317

OBP

.319

.315

4.03

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.10

3.79

Team ERA

◀

4.17

3.97

1.26

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.28

9.3

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

CLE 3 · DET 1 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked DET +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CLE0001002003
DET0100000001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

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Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

66%Last 7 · 70-36
61%Last 30 · 308-194
Receipts →
MLB·Thu, Sep 18·Final/SeriesCLE wins series 6-1

Recap · MLB

Cleveland Guardians went into Detroit Tigers and beat them, 3–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1A. MartinezCLE+37.1pp
  2. 2T. MeltonDET−29.9pp
  3. 3J. RamirezCLE+24.9pp

CLE · top performer

CLE
Jhonkensy Noel

Jhonkensy Noel

RF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

DET · top performer

DET
Colt Keith

Colt Keith

3B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
S. KwanCF
.2725000000
A. MartinezLF
.2303110021
J. Ramirez3B
.2825122100
D. FryRF
.1703000002
G. AriasSS
.2254010002
J. NoelRF
.1614121102
B. RocchioSS
.2314020001
A. HedgesC
.1513010010
N. JonesRF
.2114010003
- K. Manzardo1B
.2402000000
Team3731032311

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
T. BibeeSP
6.041128100
T. HerrinRP
1.00001115
K. AllardRP
1.00001122
H. GaddisRP
1.01000018
Team9.0511410155

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
P. MeadowsCF
.2282000011
G. Torres2B
.2532010021
K. CarpenterRF
.2564000001
R. GreeneLF
.2614000002
S. Torkelson1B
.2424120000
W. PerezRF
.2564010002
C. Keith3B
.2561011000
D. DinglerC
.2763000000
Z. McKinstry2B
.2583000002
- J. JonesDH
.2631000000
- T. SweeneySS
.1981000001
- A. Ibanez2B
.2381000010
Team301510410

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
T. SkubalSP
6.071129102
T. MeltonSP
1.22221127
T. HoltonRP
1.11000124
Team9.01033311153

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CLE

  • T. Bibee
    100 pitches·24% CSW
    • FC
      35%·87.6 mph·26% whiff
    • FF
      30%·94.7 mph·10% whiff
    • CH
      13%·81.5 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      12%·79.9 mph·13% whiff
    • SI
      7%·94.3 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      3%·83.8 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Allard
    22 pitches·14% CSW
    • FF
      36%·90.7 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      32%·82.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      23%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      9%·71.8 mph·— whiff
  • H. Gaddis
    18 pitches·17% CSW
    • SL
      61%·90.5 mph·14% whiff
    • FF
      22%·95.2 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      17%·80.2 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Herrin
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • CU
      40%·81.4 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      27%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      27%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      7%·86.8 mph·— whiff

DET

  • T. Skubal
    102 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      30%·98.5 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      26%·88.6 mph·29% whiff
    • SI
      23%·98.2 mph·8% whiff
    • SL
      17%·91.1 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      4%·82.3 mph·33% whiff
  • T. Melton
    27 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      41%·97.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      26%·85.6 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      15%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      15%·89.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      4%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Holton
    24 pitches·25% CSW
    • FC
      42%·89.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      29%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      21%·81.8 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      4%·85.3 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      4%·80.0 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

5

3

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Current series

CLE wins series 6-1

May 22CLECLE7@DETDET0
May 23CLECLE3@DETDET1
May 24CLECLE7@DETDET5
May 25CLECLE0@DETDET5
Sep 16CLECLE7@DETDET5
Sep 17CLECLE4@DETDET0
Sep 18CLECLE3@DETDET1today

Season series

CLE leads series 6-4

May 22CLECLE7@DETDET0
May 23CLECLE3@DETDET1
May 24CLECLE7@DETDET5
May 25CLECLE0@DETDET5
Jul 4DETDET2@CLECLE1
Jul 5DETDET1@CLECLE0
Jul 6DETDET7@CLECLE2
Sep 16CLECLE7@DETDET5
Sep 17CLECLE4@DETDET0
Sep 18CLECLE3@DETDET1today
Sep 23DETDET2@CLECLE5
Sep 24DETDET1@CLECLE5
Sep 25DETDET4@CLECLE2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCLE ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 32pp · Top 7th Inning

CLECLE
J. Noel

J. Noel

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

T. Bibee

T. Bibee

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 8 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

DETDET
C. Keith

C. Keith

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

T. Skubal

T. Skubal

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER · 7 H · 2 BB

How it ended

CLE beat DET 3-1. Ram's play in the top 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (32pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

DET vs CLE

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CLETop 7th Inning · 3-1
+32pp→ 79% WP

Ram · írez homered to right center (368 feet), Martínez scored.

CLEBottom 7th Inning · 3-1
+13pp→ 84% WP

Dingler · lined into double play, pitcher to first, Ibáñez doubled off first.

CLEBottom 9th Inning · 3-1
+16pp→ 99% WP

Pérez grounded into double play, first to shortstop, Torkelson out at second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CLE0001002003
DET0100000001

Period scoring

CLE won 2 · DET won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Keith 1

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Noel 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

2
0

Inn 7

Ram 2

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

CLE
DET

Play-by-play · 583 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CLE 3·DET 1

  2. B9

    ·

    CLE 3·DET 1

  3. B9

    Ibáñez fouled out to third.

    ·

    CLE 3·DET 1

    −1pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 8 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CLE 3·DET 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CLE 3·DET 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 2

    ·

    CLE 3·DET 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CLE 3·DET 1

  8. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CLE 3·DET 1

  9. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CLE 3·DET 1

  10. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    CLE 3·DET 1

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CLE 3·DET 1

  12. B9

    Hunter Gaddis pitches to Andy Ibanez

    ·

    CLE 3·DET 1

  13. B9

    ·

    CLE 3·DET 1

  14. B9

    Pérez grounded into double play, first to shortstop, Torkelson out at second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CLE 3·DET 1

    −16pp

  15. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CLE 3·DET 1

  16. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CLE 3·DET 1

  17. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CLE 3·DET 1

  18. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CLE 3·DET 1

  19. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CLE 3·DET 1

  20. B9

    Hunter Gaddis pitches to Wenceel Perez

    · ·

    CLE 3·DET 1

  21. B9

    ·

    CLE 3·DET 1

  22. B9

    Torkelson singled to left.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CLE 3·DET 1

    +9pp

  23. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CLE 3·DET 1

  24. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    CLE 3·DET 1

  25. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    CLE 3·DET 1

  26. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CLE 3·DET 1

  27. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CLE 3·DET 1

  28. B9

    Hunter Gaddis pitches to Spencer Torkelson

    ·

    CLE 3·DET 1

  29. B9

    Gaddis relieved Allard

    ·

    CLE 3·DET 1

  30. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    CLE 3·DET 1

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

DET

Home

3

Runs

1

10

Hits

5

0

Errors

0

18

TB

7

2

HR

0

3

BB

4

11

K

10

17

LOB

17

Player projections

DET vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 95 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.0± 3.5low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    5.8± 2.3low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.6± 3.5low

Hits

  • Dillon DinglerDET
    1.3± 1.6high
  • Gleyber TorresDET
    1.3± 1.3high
  • Jose RamirezCLE
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Dillon DinglerDET
    2.8± 4.4high
  • Jose RamirezCLE
    2.0± 2.3high
  • Gleyber TorresDET
    2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Dillon DinglerDET
    1.2± 1.8high
  • Kerry CarpenterDET
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Gleyber TorresDET
    0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Slade CecconiCLE
    2.8± 2.5low
  • Framber ValdezDET
    2.8± 2.6low
  • Joey CantilloCLE
    2.7± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · DET favored

  • Elo Static

    50.9%

    P(DET win)

    44%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.9%

    P(DET win)

    11%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    51.7%

    P(DET win)

    45%

    weight

Disagreement

0.40 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

2 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 15 players in cohort
  • Parker MeadowsDET · CF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Jahmai JonesDET · DH
    SPRINT28.278