MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+9TOR

BAL

69-80

211

TOR

87-62

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario

42,032 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.1%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
61.5%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
60.0%
P(TOR win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
61.3%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.66 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TOR vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.9low
Trey YesavageTOR
5.5± 2.0low
Kyle BradishBAL
5.2± 3.1low

Hits

Ernie ClementTOR
1.3± 1.0high
Taylor WardBAL
1.2± 1.1high
Nathan LukesTOR
1.2± 0.7high

Total bases

Pete AlonsoBAL
2.1± 2.0high
Ernie ClementTOR
2.1± 2.3high
Adley RutschmanBAL
1.9± 2.9high

RBIs

Adley RutschmanBAL
1.1± 1.6high
Pete AlonsoBAL
0.7± 0.9high
Coby MayoBAL
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Max ScherzerTOR
4.2± 4.0low
Trevor RogersBAL
3.7± 2.4low
Simeon Woods RichardsonTOR
3.2± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BAL

league avg

TOR

.727

OPS

◀

.715

.702

.324

OBP

◀

.319

.314

4.76

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.13

4.53

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.08

1.40

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.27

7.8

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

BAL 2 · TOR 11 (by 9)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TOR +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
BAL	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2
TOR	0	0	1	2	1	1	6	0	11

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. Holliday2B	.253	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. BeaversRF	.282	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. HendersonSS	.271	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
J. Jackson2B	.285	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. BasalloC	.179	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. Mayo3B	.193	3	1	1	1	1	1	1
C. CowserRF	.201	4	1	1	1	1	0	2
D. CarlsonLF	.202	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. JacksonC	.244	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
E. Rivera3B	.250	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. MateoSS	.182	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		32	2	7	2	2	2	8

Player

AVG

RBI

.253

.282

.271

.285

.179

.193

.201

.202

.244

.250

.182

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
A. SuarezRP	3.0	2	1	1	1	5	53
G. WolframRP	1.0	3	2	2	0	1	15
C. RagsdaleRP	3.0	9	8	8	1	2	79
L. VazquezSS	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	9
Team	8.0	14	11	11	2	8	156

Player

3.0

1.0

3.0

1.0

Team

8.0

156

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
G. SpringerDH	.303	5	2	3	2	1	0	2
D. SchneiderLF	.236	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
V. Guerrero Jr.1B	.304	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
A. BargerRF	.250	5	1	1	3	0	0	2
A. KirkC	.292	4	1	3	1	0	0	1
D. VarshoCF	.242	4	2	2	0	0	0	1
E. Clement2B	.279	4	1	2	3	0	0	0
J. LoperfidoLF	.344	4	0	1	2	0	0	1
A. GimenezSS	.213	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
N. LukesRF	.256	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
T. France1B	.261	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. HeinemanC	.307	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
M. StrawRF	.268	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		38	11	14	11	1	2	8

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
S. BieberSP	6.0	4	1	1	1	5	97
L. VarlandRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	13
R. BoruckiRP	2.0	2	0	0	1	1	28
Team	9.0	7	2	2	2	8	138

Team

BAL

TOR

—

3 sub-models, blended.

TOR vs BAL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TOR vs BAL.

3 sub-models, blended.