HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 9
  • MLBBot 2
    COL 0@ATH 0
    +8.4ppmedium
  • MLBTop 2
    CHC 0@SF 0
    -12.4pphigh
  • MLBTop 9
    ARI 3@CIN 2
    -51.2pplow
  • MLBTop 7
    STL 3@MIN 4
    +41.4ppmedium
  • MLBBot 6
    ATL 3@NYM 7
    +58.9pplow
  • MLBBot 7
    HOU 9@KC 5
    -49.3pplow
  • MLBTop 4
    TB 0@LAA 4
    +62.6pplow
  • MLBTop 6
    SEA 8@WSH 1
    -47.4pplow
  • WNBA8:05 - 2nd
    GS 26@SEA 25
    +3.4pphigh
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2PHI
KC

KC

74-75

6
8
PHI

PHI

89-60

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
43,326 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

KC

KC

league avg

PHI

PHI

.692

OPS

◀

.715

.681

.315

OBP

◀

.319

.296

3.91

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.00

4.45

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.04

1.39

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.30

8.2

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

KC 6 · PHI 8 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +14pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
KC3010001106
PHI201031108

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

68%Last 7 · 67-32
62%Last 30 · 305-190
Receipts →
MLB·Sat, Sep 13·Final/SeriesPHI wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Philadelphia Phillies held off Kansas City Royals, 8–6.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1K. SchwarberPHI+37.2pp
  2. 2H. BaderPHI+36.8pp
  3. 3A. ZerpaKC−34.1pp

KC · top performer

KC
Salvador Perez

Salvador Perez

C

2.500OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

PHI · top performer

PHI
Kyle Schwarber

Kyle Schwarber

DH

2.467OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Kansas City Royals at Philadelphia Phillies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
M. YastrzemskiLF
.2333010001
B. Witt Jr.SS
.2914000011
V. Pasquantino1B
.2624111001
M. Garcia3B
.2894111000
S. PerezC
.2354223201
A. Frazier2B
.2724010000
J. India2B
.2364120001
C. JensenC
.1544011000
K. IsbelCF
.2531000010
- R. GrichukRF
.1792000000
- T. Tolbert2B
.2561110000
- J. CaglianoneRF
.1491000001
Team366106226

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
R. BergertSP
4.04333576
A. ZerpaRP
1.03331122
J. BowlanRP
1.03110119
T. ClarkeRP
0.12110012
S. LongRP
0.2000003
L. ErcegRP
1.00000112
Team8.0128848144

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
H. BaderCF
.3525230001
K. SchwarberDH
.2443222121
B. Harper1B
.2663100022
J.T. RealmutoC
.2633111001
B. MarshLF
.2864123100
M. KeplerLF
.2242000001
O. KempLF
.2534021001
B. Stott2B
.2574010001
D. Walton3B
.1253110000
- N. CastellanosRF
.2551001000
Team328128248

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
T. WalkerSP
5.07441383
T. BanksRP
1.00000015
M. StrahmRP
1.01111019
D. RobertsonRP
1.02110221
J. DuranRP
1.0000019
Team9.0106626147

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

KC

  • R. Bergert
    76 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      39%·94.0 mph·15% whiff
    • SL
      21%·87.8 mph·40% whiff
    • ST
      16%·83.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      9%·88.5 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      8%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      7%·82.6 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Zerpa
    22 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      45%·97.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      27%·97.3 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      27%·87.1 mph·20% whiff
  • J. Bowlan
    19 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      42%·96.2 mph·43% whiff
    • SL
      32%·86.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      11%·88.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      11%·78.8 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      5%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Clarke
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • SL
      50%·88.5 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      25%·95.4 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      17%·90.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      8%·95.6 mph·— whiff
  • L. Erceg
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      50%·97.9 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      25%·97.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      17%·89.9 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      8%·85.1 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Long
    3 pitches·0% CSW
    • SI
      100%·92.0 mph·0% whiff

PHI

  • T. Walker
    83 pitches·30% CSW
    • FC
      29%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      23%·92.7 mph·17% whiff
    • FS
      18%·87.6 mph·38% whiff
    • FF
      13%·92.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      11%·75.1 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      6%·81.8 mph·50% whiff
  • D. Robertson
    21 pitches·33% CSW
    • FC
      43%·91.3 mph·33% whiff
    • KC
      43%·84.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      10%·91.5 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      5%·87.9 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Strahm
    19 pitches·11% CSW
    • FF
      37%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      32%·82.1 mph·67% whiff
    • FC
      26%·87.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      5%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Banks
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      33%·92.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·87.6 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      27%·84.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      7%·93.4 mph·— whiff
  • J. Duran
    9 pitches·33% CSW
    • FS
      44%·98.1 mph·50% whiff
    • KC
      33%·89.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      22%·102.1 mph·50% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

12

6

Runs

8

0

Errors

0

Current series

PHI wins series 2-1

Sep 12KCKC2@PHIPHI8
Sep 13KCKC6@PHIPHI8today
Sep 14KCKC10@PHIPHI3

Season series

PHI leads series 2-0

Sep 12KCKC2@PHIPHI8
Sep 13KCKC6@PHIPHI8today
Sep 14KCKC10@PHIPHI3

Headlines · top performers

Game flowKC ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 19pp · Bottom 1st Inning

KCKC
S. Perez

S. Perez

C

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-4 · 2 HR · 2.500 OPS

R. Bergert

R. Bergert

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 5 K · 3 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

PHIPHI
K. Schwarber

K. Schwarber

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.467 OPS

T. Walker

T. Walker

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 4 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

How it ended

PHI beat KC 8-6. Marsh's play in the bottom 1st inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Win probability

PHI vs KC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
KCTop 1st Inning · 3-0
+19pp→ 65% WP

Perez · homered to left center (398 feet), Garcia scored.

PHIBottom 1st Inning · 3-2
+19pp→ 54% WP

Marsh · doubled to center, Schwarber scored and Bader scored.

PHIBottom 5th Inning · 4-4
+17pp→ 66% WP

Schwarber · homered to right (361 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
KC3010001106
PHI20103110—8

Period scoring

KC won 2 · PHI won 2

3
2

Inn 1

Perez 2

Marsh 2

0
0

Inn 2

1
1

Inn 3

Perez 1

Realmuto 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
3

Inn 5

Schwarber 1

0
1

Inn 6

Schwarber 1

1
1

Inn 7

Pasquantino 1

Marsh 1

1
0

Inn 8

Jensen 1

0

Inn 9

KC
PHI

Play-by-play · 578 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    KC 6·PHI 8

  2. T9

    Pasquantino struck out swinging.

    ·

    KC 6·PHI 8

    +1pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    KC 6·PHI 8

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    KC 6·PHI 8

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    KC 6·PHI 8

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    KC 6·PHI 8

  7. T9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Vinnie Pasquantino

    ·

    KC 6·PHI 8

  8. T9

    ·

    KC 6·PHI 8

  9. T9

    Witt Jr. grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    KC 6·PHI 8

    +2pp

  10. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    KC 6·PHI 8

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    KC 6·PHI 8

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    KC 6·PHI 8

  13. T9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Bobby Witt Jr.

    ·

    KC 6·PHI 8

  14. T9

    ·

    KC 6·PHI 8

  15. T9

    Grichuk grounded out to second.

    ·

    KC 6·PHI 8

    +4pp

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    KC 6·PHI 8

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    KC 6·PHI 8

  18. T9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Randal Grichuk

    ·

    KC 6·PHI 8

  19. T9

    Duran relieved Robertson

    ·

    KC 6·PHI 8

  20. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    KC 6·PHI 8

  21. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    KC 6·PHI 8

  22. B8

    ·

    KC 6·PHI 8

  23. B8

    Harper lined out to center.

    ·

    KC 6·PHI 8

  24. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    KC 6·PHI 8

  25. B8

    Lucas Erceg pitches to Bryce Harper

    ·

    KC 6·PHI 8

  26. B8

    ·

    KC 6·PHI 8

  27. B8

    Schwarber struck out swinging.

    ·

    KC 6·PHI 8

    −0.5pp

  28. B8

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    KC 6·PHI 8

  29. B8

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    KC 6·PHI 8

  30. B8

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    KC 6·PHI 8

Team stats

KC

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

6

Runs

8

10

Hits

12

0

Errors

0

20

TB

20

2

HR

2

2

BB

4

6

K

8

9

LOB

19

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 14 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • J.T. RealmutoPHI · C
    SPRINT28.381
  • Brandon MarshPHI · LF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

PHI vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    8.1± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.0± 3.3low
  • Zack WheelerPHI
    5.9± 2.4low

Hits

  • Jac CaglianoneKC
    1.4± 1.3high
  • Brandon MarshPHI
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Michael MasseyKC
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Jac CaglianoneKC
    2.3± 2.8high
  • Brandon MarshPHI
    2.2± 2.2high
  • Michael MasseyKC
    1.9± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Alec BohmPHI
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Jac CaglianoneKC
    0.6± 1.0high
  • Michael MasseyKC
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Aaron NolaPHI
    3.5± 2.6low
  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.4± 3.1low
  • Michael WachaKC
    2.9± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.3%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    63.7%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    63.2%

    P(PHI win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    63.5%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.20 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.