• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+1HOU
HOU

HOU

79-67

3
2
TOR

TOR

83-62

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario
36,760 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

HOU 3 · TOR 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TOR +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
HOU0100010013
TOR0000000202

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 61-39
62%Last 30 · 322-200
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 11, 25sim 96
    180
    14(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 12, 25sim 96
    11
    14(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 9, 25sim 96
    183
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 5, 25sim 96
    173
    16(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 8, 25sim 96
    210
    22(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 16, 25sim 96
    112
    2(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Sep 10·Final/SeriesTOR wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Houston Astros went into Toronto Blue Jays and beat them, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

HOU · top performer

HOU
Carlos Correa

Carlos Correa

SS

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

TOR · top performer

TOR
Ty France

Ty France

1B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
HOU79-67
3
2
TOR83-62
HOU79-67·TOR83-62
HOU

HOU

79-67

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. PenaJ. Pena★SS
0-55000000
Y. AlvarezY. Alvarez★DH
2-44020001
SPRINT24.64
C. CorreaC. Correa★SS
2-44121101
SPRINT27.251
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
1-33010012
SPRINT25.920
J. SanchezJ. Sanchez★RF
0-11100020
SPRINT25.818
J. MeyersJ. Meyers★CF
0-44000003
V. CaratiniV. Caratini★C
0-44000000
Y. DiazY. Diaz★C
2-44122100
SPRINT25.513
R. UriasR. Urias★3B
0-33000000
J. AltuveJ. Altuve2B
0-11000001
Team7-3333373248
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. AlexanderJ. Alexander★RP
7.0300130
S. OkertS. OkertRP
0.1322010
E. De Los SantosE. De Los SantosRP
0.2100010
B. AbreuB. AbreuRP
1.0000010
Team9.0722160
TOR

TOR

83-62

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
0-44000001
N. LukesN. Lukes★RF
1-44011000
SPRINT27.148
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
0-44000001
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
0-44000000
A. KirkA. Kirk★C
0-44000000
A. BargerA. Barger★RF
0-11000010
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
2-33020001
SPRINT27.354
J. LoperfidoJ. Loperfido★LF
0-22000001
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
2-33021001
SPRINT27.560
I. Kiner-FalefaI. Kiner-Falefa2B
1-22110001
SPRINT27.560
T. FranceT. France1B
1-11010000
SPRINT24.74
Team7-3232272016
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. BerriosJ. Berrios★SP
5.1522141
B. FisherB. FisherRP
1.0000120
L. VarlandL. VarlandRP
1.1100110
B. LittleB. LittleRP
0.1000100
J. HoffmanJ. HoffmanRP
1.0111011
Team9.0733482

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

HOU

  • J. Alexander
    89 pitches·28% CSW
    • SI
      47%·90.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      30%·80.3 mph·31% whiff
    • ST
      13%·78.1 mph·75% whiff
    • FF
      8%·90.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      1%·87.6 mph·— whiff
  • E. De Los Santos
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      71%·95.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      29%·86.2 mph·67% whiff
  • S. Okert
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      58%·91.5 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      42%·81.0 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Abreu
    11 pitches·45% CSW
    • FF
      36%·96.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      36%·86.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      27%·95.7 mph·100% whiff

TOR

  • J. Berrios
    81 pitches·30% CSW
    • SI
      48%·93.3 mph·19% whiff
    • SV
      20%·82.8 mph·22% whiff
    • FF
      16%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·85.4 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      2%·90.4 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Varland
    28 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      39%·99.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      36%·93.4 mph·33% whiff
    • KC
      18%·88.1 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      4%·94.1 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      4%·98.3 mph·— whiff
  • B. Fisher
    18 pitches·28% CSW
    • SL
      44%·87.2 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      33%·80.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      22%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Hoffman
    17 pitches·35% CSW
    • FF
      41%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      41%·85.9 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      12%·88.8 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      6%·94.9 mph·— whiff
  • B. Little
    7 pitches·0% CSW
    • FC
      57%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      29%·94.3 mph·— whiff
    • KC
      14%·87.0 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

7

3

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Current series

TOR wins series 2-1

Sep 9HOUHOU3@TORTOR4
Sep 10HOUHOU3@TORTOR2today
Sep 11HOUHOU0@TORTOR6

Season series

HOU leads series 4-1

Apr 22TORTOR0@HOUHOU7
Apr 23TORTOR1@HOUHOU5
Apr 23TORTOR1@HOUHOU3
Sep 9HOUHOU3@TORTOR4
Sep 10HOUHOU3@TORTOR2today
Sep 11HOUHOU0@TORTOR6

Headlines · top performers

Game flowHOU ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 39pp · Top 9th Inning

HOUHOU
C. Correa

C. Correa

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

J. Alexander

J. Alexander

RP

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

TORTOR
T. France

T. France

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

J. Berrios

J. Berrios

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

How it ended

HOU beat TOR 3-2. Diaz's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (39pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

TOR vs HOU

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
HOUBottom 6th Inning · 2-0
+15pp→ 76% WP

Springer · grounded into double play, first to shortstop to pitcher, Giménez out at second.

TORBottom 8th Inning · 2-2
+31pp→ 66% WP

Lukes · singled to right, Straw scored, Giménez to third.

HOUTop 9th Inning · 3-2
+39pp→ 78% WP

Diaz · homered to left center (385 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
HOU0100010013
TOR0000000202

Period scoring

HOU won 3 · TOR won 1

0
0

Inn 1

1
0

Inn 2

Diaz 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Correa 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
2

Inn 8

Gim 1

1
0

Inn 9

Diaz 1

HOU
TOR

Play-by-play · 545 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    HOU 3·TOR 2

  2. B9

    ·

    HOU 3·TOR 2

  3. B9

    Kiner-Falefa struck out looking.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    HOU 3·TOR 2

    −6pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    HOU 3·TOR 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    HOU 3·TOR 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 3·TOR 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 3·TOR 2

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 3·TOR 2

  9. B9

    Bryan Abreu pitches to Isiah Kiner-Falefa

    ·

    HOU 3·TOR 2

  10. B9

    ·

    HOU 3·TOR 2

  11. B9

    Kirk lined out to pitcher.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    HOU 3·TOR 2

    −8pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    HOU 3·TOR 2

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    HOU 3·TOR 2

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 3·TOR 2

  15. B9

    Bryan Abreu pitches to Alejandro Kirk

    ·

    HOU 3·TOR 2

  16. B9

    ·

    HOU 3·TOR 2

  17. B9

    Varsho flied out to right.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    HOU 3·TOR 2

    −10pp

  18. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    HOU 3·TOR 2

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 3·TOR 2

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    HOU 3·TOR 2

  21. B9

    Bryan Abreu pitches to Daulton Varsho

    ·

    HOU 3·TOR 2

  22. B9

    Abreu relieved De Los Santos

    ·

    HOU 3·TOR 2

  23. B9

    Altuve at second base.

    HOU 3·TOR 2

  24. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    HOU 3·TOR 2

  25. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    HOU 3·TOR 2

  26. T9

    ·

    HOU 3·TOR 2

  27. T9

    Peña flied out to center.

    ·

    HOU 3·TOR 2

    +1pp

  28. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    HOU 3·TOR 2

  29. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 3·TOR 2

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    HOU 3·TOR 2

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

3

Runs

2

7

Hits

7

0

Errors

0

14

TB

8

2

HR

0

4

BB

1

8

K

6

13

LOB

9

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 14 players in cohort
  • Cam SmithHOU · RF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Jeremy PenaHOU · SS
    SPRINT28.483

Player projections

TOR vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.8± 2.2low
  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low
  • Spencer ArrighettiHOU
    5.4± 3.3low

Hits

  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.1± 0.8low

Total bases

  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.0± 2.9high

RBIs

  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.7± 1.4high
  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Tatsuya ImaiHOU
    2.7± 3.2low
  • Peter LambertHOU
    2.4± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.4%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    60.3%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    61.0%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    60.3%

    P(TOR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.33 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.