HomeScoresLiveTonight's picksPlay
LAST NIGHT · MLBW. Castro (COL): 4 H · 2 HR · 7 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBH. Goodman (COL): 5 H · 2 HR · 4 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 95
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 2B Vaughn Grissom on a rehab assignment to Rancho Cucamonga (CAL) (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Webb (SF): 8.0 IP · 7 K in a win over CHC
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Meyer (MIA): 6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER in a win over PIT
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Agreed to terms with 2B Luke Ritter on a minor league contract (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Gray (ATL): 26 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST in a win over TOR
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Reese (ATL): 15 PTS · 17 REB · 1 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBRangers: Placed CF Michael Helman on the 10-day IL (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · NHLB. Bussi (CAR): 22 SV in a win over VGK
TRANSACTION · WNBAWings: Signed G Sug Sutton to a rest-of-season contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NHLBruins: Signed F Attilio Biasca to a two-year contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NFLBills: Signed T/G Jude Bowry to a four-year contract (Jun 14)
TONIGHT · WNBAPOR @ MIN, 6/15 - 8:00 PM EDT — MIN -13.5
LAST NIGHT · MLBW. Castro (COL): 4 H · 2 HR · 7 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBH. Goodman (COL): 5 H · 2 HR · 4 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 95
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 2B Vaughn Grissom on a rehab assignment to Rancho Cucamonga (CAL) (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Webb (SF): 8.0 IP · 7 K in a win over CHC
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Meyer (MIA): 6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER in a win over PIT
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Agreed to terms with 2B Luke Ritter on a minor league contract (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Gray (ATL): 26 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST in a win over TOR
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Reese (ATL): 15 PTS · 17 REB · 1 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBRangers: Placed CF Michael Helman on the 10-day IL (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · NHLB. Bussi (CAR): 22 SV in a win over VGK
TRANSACTION · WNBAWings: Signed G Sug Sutton to a rest-of-season contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NHLBruins: Signed F Attilio Biasca to a two-year contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NFLBills: Signed T/G Jude Bowry to a four-year contract (Jun 14)
TONIGHT · WNBAPOR @ MIN, 6/15 - 8:00 PM EDT — MIN -13.5
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
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THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+4SF
SF

SF

76-76

5
1
ARI

ARI

77-76

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona
19,513 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

SF

SF

league avg

ARI

ARI

.725

OPS

◀

.717

.691

.309

OBP

.319

.306

4.11

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.23

4.52

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.19

1.40

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.27

8.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SF wins

SF 5 · ARI 1 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ARI +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team1234567891011R
SF000000000055
ARI000000000011

Final play

“End of the 11th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
61%Last 30 · 300-195
Receipts →
MLB·Wed, Sep 17·Final/SeriesARI wins series 4-3

Recap · MLB

San Francisco Giants went into Arizona Diamondbacks and beat them, 5–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1A. ThomasARI−51.6pp
  2. 2G. MorenoARI−50.3pp
  3. 3J. CurtissARI−49.2pp

SF · top performer

SF
Jerar Encarnacion

Jerar Encarnacion

RF

0.500OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

ARI · top performer

ARI
Blaze Alexander

Blaze Alexander

3B

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/11

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
H. RamosLF
.2594000000
R. Devers1B
.2385011001
W. AdamesSS
.2274000012
M. Chapman3B
.2354100002
B. EldridgeDH
.0003000012
J. EncarnacionRF
.2094111002
P. BaileyC
.2184110001
C. Koss2B
.2584112000
D. GilbertCF
.2184010001
- G. McCrayCF
.1000001000
- J. LeeRF
.2620100000
Team365550211

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
J. VerlanderSP
7.030023107
S. BivensRP
1.0000008
R. WalkerRP
1.01001123
J. PegueroRP
2.00101126
Team11.041045164

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
G. PerdomoSS
.2895110000
K. Marte2B
.2755000000
C. CarrollRF
.2583011011
G. MorenoC
.2853000020
B. Alexander3B
.2444020002
J. McCannC
.2503000001
A. ThomasCF
.2494000000
T. TawaLF
.2132000010
J. McCarthyCF
.2024000000
- A. Del CastilloDH
.2391000001
- B. GarciaRP
.0000000000
- J. CurtissRP
.0000000000
- J. MorilloRP
.0000000000
Team34141045

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
B. PfaadtRP
9.01001797
B. GarciaRP
1.00000217
J. CurtissRP
0.03541012
J. MorilloRP
1.01000218
Team11.0554211144

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SF

  • J. Verlander
    107 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      46%·92.9 mph·15% whiff
    • SL
      26%·85.5 mph·11% whiff
    • ST
      12%·79.6 mph·40% whiff
    • CU
      8%·77.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      7%·83.3 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Peguero
    26 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      58%·100.2 mph·13% whiff
    • SL
      27%·91.8 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      15%·99.3 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Walker
    23 pitches·26% CSW
    • SL
      57%·83.1 mph·38% whiff
    • SI
      43%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Bivens
    8 pitches·0% CSW
    • CH
      63%·88.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      13%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      13%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·94.8 mph·— whiff

ARI

  • B. Pfaadt
    97 pitches·30% CSW
    • SI
      29%·92.9 mph·14% whiff
    • FF
      23%·92.8 mph·46% whiff
    • ST
      21%·83.3 mph·36% whiff
    • CH
      13%·85.8 mph·11% whiff
    • CU
      9%·80.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      5%·90.7 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Morillo
    18 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      83%·99.8 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      11%·91.8 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      6%·89.6 mph·100% whiff
  • B. Garcia
    17 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      65%·98.0 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      29%·86.1 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      6%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Curtiss
    12 pitches·8% CSW
    • FF
      58%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      17%·86.5 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      17%·89.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      8%·87.7 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

4

5

Runs

1

0

Errors

1

Current series

ARI wins series 4-3

Jul 1SFSF2@ARIARI4
Jul 2SFSF2@ARIARI8
Jul 3SFSF6@ARIARI5
Jul 4SFSF7@ARIARI2
Sep 16SFSF1@ARIARI8
Sep 17SFSF5@ARIARI6
Sep 17SFSF5@ARIARI1today

Season series

ARI wins series 7-6

May 13ARIARI2@SFSF1
May 14ARIARI6@SFSF10
May 14ARIARI8@SFSF7
Jul 1SFSF2@ARIARI4
Jul 2SFSF2@ARIARI8
Jul 3SFSF6@ARIARI5
Jul 4SFSF7@ARIARI2
Sep 9ARIARI5@SFSF11
Sep 10ARIARI3@SFSF5
Sep 10ARIARI5@SFSF3
Sep 16SFSF1@ARIARI8
Sep 17SFSF5@ARIARI6
Sep 17SFSF5@ARIARI1today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSF ↔ ARI

Biggest swing: 23pp · Bottom 9th Inning

SFSF
J. Encarnacion

J. Encarnacion

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 R · 0.500 OPS

J. Verlander

J. Verlander

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

ARIARI
B. Alexander

B. Alexander

3B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

B. Pfaadt

B. Pfaadt

RP

Starting pitcherGem

9.0 IP · 7 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 1 BB

How it ended

SF beat ARI 5-1. Carroll's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (23pp).

Last play

End of the 11th inning

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ARIBottom 9th Inning · 0-0
+23pp→ 85% WP

Carroll · tripled to right.

ARITop 10th Inning · 0-0
+21pp→ 68% WP

Adames · struck out swinging.

SFBottom 10th Inning · 0-0
+19pp→ 36% WP

McCarthy · grounded out to first.

Linescore (innings)

Team1234567891011R
SF000000000055
ARI000000000011

Team stats

SF

Away

Stat

ARI

Home

5

Runs

1

5

Hits

4

0

Errors

1

6

TB

6

0

HR

0

2

BB

4

11

K

5

9

LOB

18

Win probability

ARI vs SF

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10I11

Period scoring

SF won 1 · ARI won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

0
0

Inn 10

5
1

Inn 11

Koss 2

Carroll 1

SF
ARI

Play-by-play · 614 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 11

    End of the 11th inning

    SF 5·ARI 1

  2. B11

    · ·

    SF 5·ARI 1

  3. B11

    Alexander struck out swinging.

    · ·

    SF 5·ARI 1

  4. B11

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    SF 5·ARI 1

  5. B11

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SF 5·ARI 1

  6. B11

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SF 5·ARI 1

  7. B11

    Moreno to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    SF 5·ARI 1

  8. B11

    Moreno to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    SF 5·ARI 1

  9. B11

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SF 5·ARI 1

  10. B11

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    SF 5·ARI 1

  11. B11

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SF 5·ARI 1

  12. B11

    Joel Peguero pitches to Blaze Alexander

    · ·

    SF 5·ARI 1

  13. B11

    ·

    SF 5·ARI 1

  14. B11

    Moreno walked.

    ·

    SF 5·ARI 1

  15. B11

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    ·

    SF 5·ARI 1

  16. B11

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    SF 5·ARI 1

  17. B11

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    SF 5·ARI 1

  18. B11

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    SF 5·ARI 1

  19. B11

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SF 5·ARI 1

  20. B11

    Joel Peguero pitches to Gabriel Moreno

    ·

    SF 5·ARI 1

  21. B11

    ·

    SF 5·ARI 1

  22. B11

    Carroll hit sacrifice fly to left, Perdomo scored.

    · ·

    SF 5·ARI 1

    −0.7pp

  23. B11

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 5·ARI 1

  24. B11

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SF 5·ARI 0

  25. B11

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SF 5·ARI 0

  26. B11

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SF 5·ARI 0

  27. B11

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SF 5·ARI 0

  28. B11

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SF 5·ARI 0

  29. B11

    Joel Peguero pitches to Corbin Carroll

    · ·

    SF 5·ARI 1

  30. B11

    · ·

    SF 5·ARI 0

Player projections

ARI vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 72 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Landen RouppSF
    5.8± 2.1low
  • Michael SorokaARI
    5.3± 2.8low
  • Logan WebbSF
    5.2± 1.6low

Hits

  • Jung Hoo LeeSF
    1.6± 1.4high
  • Bryce EldridgeSF
    1.4± 1.0high
  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.4± 0.5high

Total bases

  • Bryce EldridgeSF
    2.4± 2.1high
  • Matt ChapmanSF
    2.3± 3.8high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.1± 2.6high

RBIs

  • Matt ChapmanSF
    1.2± 2.5high
  • Bryce EldridgeSF
    0.7± 1.2high
  • Jordan LawlarARI
    0.6± 1.1low

Earned runs

  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.6± 3.5low
  • Ryne NelsonARI
    3.4± 3.5low
  • Zac GallenARI
    3.2± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.8%

ensemble · ARI favored

  • Elo Static

    57.7%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    56.0%

    P(ARI win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    56.3%

    P(ARI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.74 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.