• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+2SEA
STL

STL

72-73

2
4
SEA

SEA

76-68

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington
22,899 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

STL 2 · SEA 4 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SEA +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
STL0002000002
SEA000004004

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 17, 25sim 98
    265
    29(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 2, 25sim 97
    35
    7(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 5, 25sim 96
    57
    30(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 4, 25sim 96
    52
    30(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 3, 25sim 96
    34
    7(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 10, 25sim 96
    243
    12(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Mon, Sep 8·Final/SeriesSEA wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Seattle Mariners held off St. Louis Cardinals, 4–2.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

STL · top performer

STL
Alec Burleson

Alec Burleson

1B

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

SEA · top performer

SEA
Randy Arozarena

Randy Arozarena

LF

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · St. Louis Cardinals at Seattle Mariners · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
STL72-73
2
4
SEA76-68
STL72-73·SEA76-68
STL

STL

72-73

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
L. NootbaarL. Nootbaar★LF
1-44010000
I. HerreraI. Herrera★DH
1-33110010
SPRINT25.513
A. BurlesonA. Burleson★1B
1-44112102
SPRINT25.513
N. GormanN. Gorman★3B
0-44000003
SPRINT257
M. WinnM. Winn★SS
0-33000002
SPRINT2872
J. CrooksJ. Crooks★C
0-33000002
T. SaggeseT. Saggese★LF
0-33000002
J. WalkerJ. Walker★RF
0-33000002
V. Scott IIV. Scott II★CF
0-33000001
Team3-30302321114
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. MikolasM. Mikolas★SP
5.0422120
G. GraceffoG. GraceffoRP
1.0222100
N. RaquetN. RaquetRP
1.0000000
J. AlcalaJ. AlcalaRP
1.0000020
Team8.0644240
SEA

SEA

76-68

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
2-44120002
SPRINT26.941
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
0-33100011
SPRINT25.716
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
2-44021000
SPRINT28.688
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
1-33112000
SPRINT23.81
J. PolancoJ. Polanco★1B
1-22011000
SPRINT25.310
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
0-33000000
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
0-33000000
V. RoblesV. Robles★RF
0-33000001
L. RivasL. Rivas★3B
0-22100010
Team6-2727464024
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. WooB. Woo★SP
6.0322091
M. BrashM. BrashRP
1.0000020
E. BazardoE. BazardoRP
1.0000010
A. MunozA. MunozRP
1.0000120
Team9.03221141

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

STL

  • N. Raquet
    19 pitches·32% CSW
    • ST
      47%·81.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      26%·90.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      16%·91.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      11%·86.4 mph·100% whiff
  • J. Alcala
    9 pitches·11% CSW
    • FF
      56%·97.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      33%·82.3 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      11%·96.1 mph·— whiff

SEA

  • A. Munoz
    19 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      58%·97.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      32%·84.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      11%·97.9 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Brash
    14 pitches·64% CSW
    • SL
      43%·85.2 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      36%·89.9 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      21%·96.0 mph·— whiff
  • E. Bazardo
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      100%·94.8 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

3

Hits

6

2

Runs

4

0

Errors

0

Current series

SEA wins series 3-0

Sep 9STLSTL2@SEASEA4today
Sep 10STLSTL3@SEASEA5
Sep 11STLSTL2@SEASEA4

Season series

SEA leads series 1-0

Sep 9STLSTL2@SEASEA4today
Sep 10STLSTL3@SEASEA5
Sep 11STLSTL2@SEASEA4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSTL ↔ SEA

Biggest swing: 24pp · Top 4th Inning

STLSTL
A. Burleson

A. Burleson

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

M. Mikolas

M. Mikolas

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 2 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

SEASEA
R. Arozarena

R. Arozarena

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.000 OPS

B. Woo

B. Woo

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 9 K · 2 ER · 3 H

How it ended

SEA beat STL 4-2. Burleson's play in the top 4th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (24pp).

Win probability

SEA vs STL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
STLTop 4th Inning · 2-0
+24pp→ 62% WP

Burleson · homered to center (416 feet), Herrera scored.

STLTop 5th Inning · 2-0
+12pp→ 68% WP

Crooks · flied out to left.

SEABottom 6th Inning · 2-0
+14pp→ 48% WP

Arozarena · singled to center, Rivas to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
STL0002000002
SEA00000400—4

Period scoring

STL won 1 · SEA won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

2
0

Inn 4

Burleson 2

0
0

Inn 5

0
4

Inn 6

Naylor 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

STL
SEA

Play-by-play · 476 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    STL 2·SEA 4

  2. T9

    Gorman struck out swinging.

    · ·

    STL 2·SEA 4

    +4pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    STL 2·SEA 4

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    STL 2·SEA 4

  5. T9

    Herrera to second on wild pitch by Muñoz.

    ·

    STL 2·SEA 4

  6. T9

    Herrera to second on wild pitch by Muñoz.

    ·

    STL 2·SEA 4

  7. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    STL 2·SEA 4

  8. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    STL 2·SEA 4

  9. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    STL 2·SEA 4

  10. T9

    Andres Munoz pitches to Nolan Gorman

    · ·

    STL 2·SEA 4

  11. T9

    · ·

    STL 2·SEA 4

  12. T9

    Burleson struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    STL 2·SEA 4

    +6pp

  13. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    STL 2·SEA 4

  14. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    STL 2·SEA 4

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    STL 2·SEA 4

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    STL 2·SEA 4

  17. T9

    Andres Munoz pitches to Alec Burleson

    · ·

    STL 2·SEA 4

  18. T9

    ·

    STL 2·SEA 4

  19. T9

    Herrera walked.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    STL 2·SEA 4

    −6pp

  20. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    ·

    STL 2·SEA 4

  21. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    STL 2·SEA 4

  22. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    STL 2·SEA 4

  23. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    STL 2·SEA 4

  24. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    STL 2·SEA 4

  25. T9

    Andres Munoz pitches to Ivan Herrera

    ·

    STL 2·SEA 4

  26. T9

    ·

    STL 2·SEA 4

  27. T9

    Nootbaar flied out to left.

    ·

    STL 2·SEA 4

    +3pp

  28. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    STL 2·SEA 4

  29. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    STL 2·SEA 4

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    STL 2·SEA 4

Team stats

STL

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

2

Runs

4

3

Hits

6

0

Errors

0

6

TB

9

1

HR

0

1

BB

2

14

K

4

4

LOB

6

Player projections

SEA vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low
  • Emerson HancockSEA
    5.5± 4.3low
  • Bryan WooSEA
    5.1± 4.1low

Hits

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    1.2± 1.1low
  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.5± 2.2high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    2.2± 2.6low
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    2.0± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    2.8± 2.1low
  • George KirbySEA
    2.6± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.0%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    58.2%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    60.5%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    59.1%

    P(SEA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.94 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 13 players in cohort
  • Jordan WalkerSTL · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Masyn WinnSTL · SS
    SPRINT2872