MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1TEX

MIL

89-57

TEX

76-70

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas

24,581 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

41.5%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
44.8%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
44.4%
P(TEX win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
43.6%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.50 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TEX vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
8.8± 2.6low
Kyle HarrisonMIL
6.3± 5.5low
Jacob deGromTEX
6.3± 3.5low

Hits

Jackson ChourioMIL
1.5± 1.2high
Andrew VaughnMIL
1.4± 1.4high
Christian YelichMIL
1.4± 1.0high

Total bases

Jackson ChourioMIL
2.9± 2.7high
Brice TurangMIL
2.2± 2.5high
Andrew VaughnMIL
2.1± 2.8high

RBIs

Jackson ChourioMIL
1.0± 1.4high
Jake BauersMIL
1.0± 1.4high
Brice TurangMIL
0.9± 1.2high

Earned runs

Robert GasserMIL
3.3± 3.0low
Jack LeiterTEX
2.9± 2.6low
Brandon SproatMIL
2.7± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIL

league avg

TEX

.730

OPS

◀

.715

.698

.340

OBP

◀

.319

.316

5.34

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.00

3.42

Team ERA

◀

4.17

3.74

1.21

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.23

9.8

K / 9

◀

8.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

MIL 4 · TEX 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIL +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIL	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	1	4
TEX	0	1	0	0	4	0	0	0	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
B. Turang2B	.288	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. ChourioLF	.279	5	1	3	0	0	0	1
C. YelichDH	.269	5	1	2	1	0	0	1
W. ContrerasC	.263	3	0	2	2	0	1	0
S. FrelickRF	.295	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Vaughn1B	.307	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
I. CollinsLF	.272	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Durbin3B	.253	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
J. OrtizSS	.225	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
R. Hoskins1B	.241	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. MonasterioSS	.283	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Bauers1B	.224	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
Team		37	4	11	4	1	2	5

Player

AVG

RBI

.288

.279

.269

.263

.295

.307

.272

.253

.225

.241

.283

.224

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
C. PatrickRP	4.1	3	3	3	3	6	80
A. AshbyRP	1.2	4	2	2	0	2	32
G. AndersonRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	19
T. MyersRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	14
Team	8.0	7	5	5	4	11	145

Player

4.1

1.2

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

145

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. Smith2B	.254	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
W. LangfordLF	.245	4	1	1	1	0	0	2
J. PedersonDH	.177	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Burger1B	.242	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Jung3B	.253	3	1	0	0	0	1	3
A. OsunaLF	.184	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. Freeman3B	.203	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
J. HeimC	.217	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
M. HelmanCF	.255	2	1	1	2	1	1	1
K. HigashiokaC	.247	1	0	1	1	0	1	0
E. Duran2B	.227	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	5	7	5	1	4	11

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
J. LeiterSP	4.2	7	3	3	2	4	89
H. MilnerRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	14
L. CurveloRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	6
R. GarciaRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	17
P. MatonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12
S. ArmstrongRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	16
Team	9.0	11	4	4	2	5	154

Team

MIL

TEX

—

3 sub-models, blended.

TEX vs MIL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TEX vs MIL.

3 sub-models, blended.