HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 9
  • MLBBot 2
    COL 0@ATH 0
    +8.4ppmedium
  • MLBTop 2
    CHC 0@SF 0
    -12.4pphigh
  • MLBTop 9
    ARI 3@CIN 2
    -51.2pplow
  • MLBTop 7
    STL 3@MIN 4
    +41.4ppmedium
  • MLBBot 6
    ATL 3@NYM 7
    +58.9pplow
  • MLBBot 7
    HOU 9@KC 5
    -49.3pplow
  • MLBTop 4
    TB 0@LAA 4
    +62.6pplow
  • MLBTop 6
    SEA 8@WSH 1
    -47.4pplow
  • WNBA8:05 - 2nd
    GS 26@SEA 25
    +3.4pphigh
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1BAL
LAD

LAD

78-63

1
2
BAL

BAL

65-76

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland
25,481 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

LAD

LAD

league avg

BAL

BAL

.784

OPS

◀

.715

.727

.345

OBP

◀

.319

.324

5.36

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.76

3.36

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.53

1.10

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.40

9.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

LAD 1 · BAL 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked LAD +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAD0000010001
BAL0000100012

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

68%Last 7 · 67-32
62%Last 30 · 305-190
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Sep 5·Final/SeriesBAL wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Baltimore Orioles held off Los Angeles Dodgers, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1T. ScottLAD−35.2pp
  2. 2E. HernándezLAD−34.2pp
  3. 3S. BasalloBAL+30.1pp

LAD · top performer

LAD
Freddie Freeman

Freddie Freeman

1B

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

BAL · top performer

BAL
Samuel Basallo

Samuel Basallo

C

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Dodgers at Baltimore Orioles · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniDH
.2773000011
M. BettsSS
.2504010000
F. Freeman1B
.2964121100
T. HernándezLF
.2444000000
M. ConfortoDH
.1903000010
A. PagesCF
.2724010002
H. KimSS
.2921000001
D. RushingC
.1902000002
M. RojasSS
.2583000010
- E. Hernández1B
.2002010010
- A. CallLF
.2451000001
- B. RortvedtC
.0001000001
Team32151148

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
S. OhtaniDH
3.23001570
A. BandaRP
0.20112024
B. CaspariusRP
0.20001013
J. DreyerRP
1.00001118
B. TreinenRP
1.01000111
M. KopechRP
1.00000113
T. ScottRP
0.21110217
Team8.2522510166

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
J. Holliday2B
.2482100021
J. Jackson2B
.3184010000
G. HendersonSS
.2763000010
R. Mountcastle1B
.2664010001
C. CowserRF
.2114000003
E. Rivera3B
.2604010002
D. BeaversRF
.3022000022
S. BasalloC
.2044111101
C. Mayo3B
.1913010000
- J. MateoSS
.1800000000
- L. VazquezSS
.1630000000
Team302511510

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
D. KremerSP
3.00001456
D. EnnsRP
2.02113139
K. StrowdRP
1.12000123
G. WolframRP
0.21000011
R. GarciaRP
1.0000019
Y. CanoRP
1.00000114
Team9.051148152

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAD

  • S. Ohtani
    70 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      31%·99.7 mph·21% whiff
    • CU
      19%·79.9 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      16%·94.1 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      13%·85.5 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      9%·89.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      9%·89.8 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      4%·96.6 mph·33% whiff
  • A. Banda
    24 pitches·17% CSW
    • SL
      63%·85.6 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      25%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      8%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      4%·85.7 mph·— whiff
  • J. Dreyer
    18 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      50%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      50%·86.0 mph·20% whiff
  • T. Scott
    17 pitches·41% CSW
    • FF
      65%·97.8 mph·29% whiff
    • SL
      35%·91.1 mph·75% whiff
  • B. Casparius
    13 pitches·8% CSW
    • FC
      62%·92.8 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      23%·96.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      8%·79.4 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      8%·84.3 mph·— whiff
  • M. Kopech
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      77%·98.2 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      15%·92.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      8%·93.3 mph·— whiff
  • B. Treinen
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • ST
      55%·84.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      18%·92.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      18%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      9%·96.0 mph·0% whiff

BAL

  • D. Kremer
    56 pitches·27% CSW
    • CU
      29%·78.6 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      25%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      16%·81.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      16%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      14%·87.1 mph·25% whiff
  • D. Enns
    39 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      56%·94.5 mph·9% whiff
    • CH
      36%·84.9 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      5%·77.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      3%·87.2 mph·— whiff
  • K. Strowd
    23 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      52%·96.0 mph·17% whiff
    • FC
      39%·92.3 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      9%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Cano
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • FS
      50%·91.0 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      29%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      14%·85.3 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      7%·95.0 mph·— whiff
  • G. Wolfram
    11 pitches·18% CSW
    • SI
      55%·97.1 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      18%·97.6 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      18%·88.3 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      9%·85.2 mph·— whiff
  • R. Garcia
    9 pitches·67% CSW
    • SL
      44%·87.0 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      33%·86.1 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      22%·96.9 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

5

1

Runs

2

0

Errors

1

Current series

BAL wins series 2-1

Sep 5LADLAD1@BALBAL2today
Sep 6LADLAD3@BALBAL4
Sep 7LADLAD5@BALBAL2

Season series

BAL leads series 1-0

Sep 5LADLAD1@BALBAL2today
Sep 6LADLAD3@BALBAL4
Sep 7LADLAD5@BALBAL2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAD ↔ BAL

Biggest swing: 47pp · Bottom 9th Inning

LADLAD
F. Freeman

F. Freeman

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

S. Ohtani

S. Ohtani

DH

Starting pitcher

3.2 IP · 5 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

BALBAL
S. Basallo

S. Basallo

C

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

D. Kremer

D. Kremer

SP

Starting pitcher

3.0 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 1 BB

How it ended

BAL beat LAD 2-1. Basallo's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (47pp).

Win probability

BAL vs LAD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LADTop 4th Inning · 0-0
+15pp→ 59% WP

Freeman · reached on infield single to third.

LADTop 6th Inning · 1-1
+15pp→ 54% WP

Freeman · homered to center (420 feet).

BALBottom 9th Inning · 1-2
+47pp→ 100% WP

Basallo · homered to right center (433 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAD0000010001
BAL0000100012

Period scoring

LAD won 1 · BAL won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
1

Inn 5

Mountcastle 1

1
0

Inn 6

Freeman 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
1

Inn 9

Basallo 1

LAD
BAL

Play-by-play · 597 plays

period
event
player
  1. B9

    ·

    LAD 1·BAL 2

  2. B9

    Basallo homered to right center (433 feet).BIG MOMENT

    ·

    LAD 1·BAL 2

    +47pp

  3. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAD 1·BAL 2

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 1·BAL 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    LAD 1·BAL 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 1·BAL 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    LAD 1·BAL 1

  8. B9

    Tanner Scott pitches to Samuel Basallo

    ·

    LAD 1·BAL 2

  9. B9

    ·

    LAD 1·BAL 1

  10. B9

    Beavers struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    LAD 1·BAL 1

    −5pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    LAD 1·BAL 1

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    LAD 1·BAL 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 1·BAL 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    LAD 1·BAL 1

  15. B9

    Tanner Scott pitches to Dylan Beavers

    ·

    LAD 1·BAL 1

  16. B9

    ·

    LAD 1·BAL 1

  17. B9

    Rivera struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    LAD 1·BAL 1

    −6pp

  18. B9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    LAD 1·BAL 1

  19. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 1·BAL 1

  20. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 1·BAL 1

  21. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 1·BAL 1

  22. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    LAD 1·BAL 1

  23. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAD 1·BAL 1

  24. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 1·BAL 1

  25. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAD 1·BAL 1

  26. B9

    Tanner Scott pitches to Emmanuel Rivera

    ·

    LAD 1·BAL 1

  27. B9

    Scott relieved Kopech

    ·

    LAD 1·BAL 1

  28. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    LAD 1·BAL 1

  29. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    LAD 1·BAL 1

  30. T9

    ·

    LAD 1·BAL 1

Team stats

LAD

Away

Stat

BAL

Home

1

Runs

2

5

Hits

5

0

Errors

1

9

TB

9

1

HR

1

4

BB

5

8

K

10

12

LOB

10

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 12 players in cohort
  • Dylan BeaversBAL · RF
    SPRINT29.194
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Hyeseong KimLAD · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

BAL vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 93 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
    6.3± 3.0low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.5± 3.7low
  • Roki SasakiLAD
    5.5± 3.1low

Hits

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    1.5± 0.9high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    1.3± 1.0high
  • Taylor WardBAL
    1.2± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    2.8± 1.7high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.0± 1.3high

RBIs

  • Adley RutschmanBAL
    1.1± 1.6high
  • Ryan WardLAD
    1.1± 1.6low
  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    0.8± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.4low
  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.0± 2.7low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.7± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

43.8%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    49.7%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    48.2%

    P(BAL win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    49.7%

    P(BAL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.70 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.