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FINAL+3STL
CIN

CIN

75-76

0
3
STL

STL

74-78

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri
21,848 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

CIN 0 · STL 3 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CIN +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CIN0000000000
STL102000003

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 61-39
62%Last 30 · 322-200
Receipts →
MLB·Tue, Sep 16·Final/Seriestied 3-3

Recap · MLB

St. Louis Cardinals held off Cincinnati Reds, 3–0.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CIN · top performer

CIN
Elly De La Cruz

Elly De La Cruz

SS

1.167OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

STL · top performer

STL
Thomas Saggese

Thomas Saggese

LF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CIN75-76
0
3
STL74-78
CIN75-76·STL74-78
CIN

CIN

75-76

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. FriedlT. Friedl★CF
0-33000011
SPRINT26.838
G. LuxG. Lux★LF
1-44010003
N. MarteN. Marte★RF
0-44000001
SPRINT28.992
S. StewartS. Stewart★1B
0-33000010
W. BensonW. Benson★RF
1-33010001
SPRINT2872
T. StephensonT. Stephenson★C
0-33000001
E. De La CruzE. De La Cruz★SS
1-22010011
SPRINT2872
K. HayesK. Hayes★3B
0-33000000
M. McLainM. McLain★2B
0-33000001
Team3-2828030039
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. AbbottA. Abbott★SP
4.2833071
S. BarlowS. BarlowRP
1.1000110
Z. MaxwellZ. MaxwellUN
1.0000000
B. SuterB. SuterRP
1.0000010
Team8.0833191
STL

STL

74-78

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. DonovanB. Donovan★3B
1-44110000
SPRINT25.18
I. HerreraI. Herrera★DH
1-44010001
SPRINT25.513
N. ArenadoN. Arenado★3B
0-33001000
A. BurlesonA. Burleson★1B
2-44120001
SPRINT25.513
T. SaggeseT. Saggese★LF
2-44122100
SPRINT27.354
L. NootbaarL. Nootbaar★LF
0-44000002
P. PagesP. Pages★C
2-33020001
SPRINT25.716
J. WalkerJ. Walker★RF
0-22000012
N. ChurchN. Church★LF
0-33000002
Team8-3131383119
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. McGreevyM. McGreevy★SP
7.0300360
J. RomeroJ. RomeroRP
1.0000020
R. O'BrienR. O'BrienRP
1.0000010
Team9.0300390

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CIN

  • A. Abbott
    96 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      39%·93.1 mph·14% whiff
    • ST
      28%·82.8 mph·41% whiff
    • CH
      22%·85.5 mph·13% whiff
    • FC
      7%·89.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      4%·80.4 mph·50% whiff
  • S. Barlow
    20 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      35%·90.7 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      25%·91.5 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      25%·81.6 mph·67% whiff
    • CU
      15%·78.2 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Suter
    8 pitches·50% CSW
    • FF
      50%·89.3 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      25%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·78.7 mph·— whiff

STL

  • M. McGreevy
    91 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      29%·93.0 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      21%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      16%·84.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      14%·80.2 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      11%·88.3 mph·40% whiff
    • FC
      9%·88.6 mph·25% whiff
  • J. Romero
    11 pitches·64% CSW
    • ST
      45%·81.0 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      27%·91.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      18%·93.7 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      9%·87.0 mph·— whiff
  • R. O'Brien
    9 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      44%·98.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·89.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      22%·84.2 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

3

Hits

8

0

Runs

3

0

Errors

0

Current series

Series tied 3-3

Jun 20CINCIN1@STLSTL6
Jun 21CINCIN5@STLSTL6
Jun 22CINCIN4@STLSTL1
Sep 15CINCIN11@STLSTL6
Sep 16CINCIN0@STLSTL3today
Sep 17CINCIN6@STLSTL2

Season series

STL leads series 7-5

Apr 28STLSTL1@CINCIN3
Apr 29STLSTL0@CINCIN0
Apr 30STLSTL6@CINCIN0
Apr 30STLSTL9@CINCIN1
May 1STLSTL1@CINCIN9
Jun 20CINCIN1@STLSTL6
Jun 21CINCIN5@STLSTL6
Jun 22CINCIN4@STLSTL1
Aug 29STLSTL7@CINCIN5
Aug 30STLSTL4@CINCIN2
Aug 31STLSTL4@CINCIN7
Sep 15CINCIN11@STLSTL6
Sep 16CINCIN0@STLSTL3today
Sep 17CINCIN6@STLSTL2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCIN ↔ STL

Biggest swing: 17pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

CINCIN
E. De La Cruz

E. De La Cruz

SS

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.167 OPS

A. Abbott

A. Abbott

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 7 K · 3 ER · 8 H

STLSTL
T. Saggese

T. Saggese

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

M. McGreevy

M. McGreevy

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

How it ended

STL beat CIN 3-0.

Win probability

STL vs CIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
STLBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
+7pp→ 62% WP

Donovan · doubled to center.

STLTop 2nd Inning · 0-1
+11pp→ 64% WP

Stephenson · grounded into double play, third to first, Benson to second, Stewart out at third.

STLBottom 3rd Inning · 0-3
+17pp→ 84% WP

Saggese · homered to left center (391 feet), Burleson scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CIN0000000000
STL10200000—3

Period scoring

CIN won 0 · STL won 2

0
1

Inn 1

Arenado 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
2

Inn 3

Saggese 2

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

CIN
STL

Play-by-play · 477 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    CIN 0·STL 3

  2. T9

    Stewart grounded out to third.

    ·

    CIN 0·STL 3

    +0.5pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CIN 0·STL 3

  4. T9

    Riley O'Brien pitches to Sal Stewart

    ·

    CIN 0·STL 3

  5. T9

    ·

    CIN 0·STL 3

  6. T9

    Marte grounded out to pitcher.

    ·

    CIN 0·STL 3

    +1pp

  7. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CIN 0·STL 3

  8. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    CIN 0·STL 3

  9. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CIN 0·STL 3

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CIN 0·STL 3

  11. T9

    Riley O'Brien pitches to Noelvi Marte

    ·

    CIN 0·STL 3

  12. T9

    ·

    CIN 0·STL 3

  13. T9

    Lux struck out swinging.

    ·

    CIN 0·STL 3

    +2pp

  14. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CIN 0·STL 3

  15. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CIN 0·STL 3

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CIN 0·STL 3

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CIN 0·STL 3

  18. T9

    Riley O'Brien pitches to Gavin Lux

    ·

    CIN 0·STL 3

  19. T9

    O'Brien relieved Romero

    ·

    CIN 0·STL 3

  20. T9

    Church in right field.

    CIN 0·STL 3

  21. T9

    Scott II in center field.

    CIN 0·STL 3

  22. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    CIN 0·STL 3

  23. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    CIN 0·STL 3

  24. B8

    ·

    CIN 0·STL 3

  25. B8

    Nootbaar grounded out to third.

    ·

    CIN 0·STL 3

  26. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CIN 0·STL 3

  27. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CIN 0·STL 3

  28. B8

    Brent Suter pitches to Lars Nootbaar

    ·

    CIN 0·STL 3

  29. B8

    ·

    CIN 0·STL 3

  30. B8

    Saggese grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    CIN 0·STL 3

Team stats

CIN

Away

Stat

STL

Home

0

Runs

3

3

Hits

8

0

Errors

0

4

TB

12

0

HR

1

3

BB

1

9

K

9

9

LOB

11

Player projections

STL vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.5± 3.8low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    5.0± 3.7low
  • Dustin MaySTL
    4.7± 3.0low

Hits

  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.3± 1.1medium
  • Sal StewartCIN
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    1.2± 1.1low

Total bases

  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    2.2± 1.7high
  • Sal StewartCIN
    2.2± 2.7high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    2.2± 2.6low

RBIs

  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Elly De La CruzCIN
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.5± 3.4low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.3± 2.3low
  • Brady SingerCIN
    3.2± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.8%

ensemble · CIN favored

  • Elo Static

    49.5%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    47.6%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    48.2%

    P(STL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.79 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Noelvi MarteCIN · RF
    SPRINT28.992
  • Jordan WalkerSTL · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Will BensonCIN · RF
    SPRINT2872
  • Elly De La CruzCIN · SS
    SPRINT2872

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 2, 25sim 96
    111
    24(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 17, 25sim 95
    302
    26(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 26, 25sim 95
    300
    5(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 11, 25sim 94
    301
    4(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 15, 25sim 94
    14
    4(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 19, 25sim 94
    53
    29(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs