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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3CLE
TB

TB

64-68

0
3
CLE

CLE

65-66

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio
19,729 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

TB 0 · CLE 3 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CLE +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TB0000000000
CLE300000003

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 61-39
62%Last 30 · 322-200
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 19, 25sim 96
    53
    29(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 27, 25sim 96
    232
    24(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 20, 25sim 95
    52
    29(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 2, 25sim 95
    111
    24(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 16, 25sim 95
    170
    24(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 20, 25sim 95
    114
    9(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, Aug 26·Final/SeriesCLE wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Cleveland Guardians held off Tampa Bay Rays, 3–0.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TB · top performer

TB
Yandy Diaz

Yandy Diaz

DH

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

CLE · top performer

CLE
Kyle Manzardo

Kyle Manzardo

1B

0.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TB64-68
0
3
CLE65-66
TB64-68·CLE65-66
TB

TB

64-68

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. SimpsonC. Simpson★LF
1-44010000
SPRINT29.496
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
0-44000000
SPRINT25.716
Y. DiazY. Diaz★DH
3-44030000
SPRINT25.716
B. LoweB. Lowe★2B
0-44000001
SPRINT27.148
E. PereiraE. Pereira★RF
0-33000001
C. MorelC. Morel★1B
0-33000002
J. LoweJ. Lowe★LF
0-33000001
C. WilliamsC. Williams★SS
1-33010002
N. FortesN. Fortes★C
0-33000001
Team5-3131050008
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. BazS. Baz★SP
6.0333270
G. JaxG. JaxRP
1.0000020
M. MontgomeryM. MontgomeryRP
1.0000100
Team8.0333390
CLE

CLE

65-66

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. KwanS. Kwan★CF
1-44110000
SPRINT26.530
C. KayfusC. Kayfus★LF
0-33100010
J. RamirezJ. Ramirez★3B
0-33000002
K. ManzardoK. Manzardo★1B
1-33111001
SPRINT25.411
D. FryD. Fry★RF
0-22000011
B. NaylorB. Naylor★C
0-22001001
SPRINT27.354
B. RocchioB. Rocchio★SS
1-33011000
SPRINT27.354
G. AriasG. Arias★SS
0-33000002
A. MartinezA. Martinez★LF
0-22000012
Team3-2525333039
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
P. MessickP. Messick★SP
7.0400060
H. GaddisH. GaddisRP
1.0000010
C. SmithC. SmithRP
1.0100010
Team9.0500080

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TB

  • S. Baz
    92 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      42%·97.0 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      23%·90.0 mph·22% whiff
    • KC
      21%·85.5 mph·31% whiff
    • CH
      14%·88.5 mph·25% whiff
  • G. Jax
    17 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      29%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      29%·87.1 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      18%·92.5 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      18%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      6%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Montgomery
    9 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      67%·97.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·89.2 mph·0% whiff

CLE

  • P. Messick
    98 pitches·37% CSW
    • FF
      45%·92.8 mph·42% whiff
    • CH
      20%·84.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      16%·86.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      12%·77.1 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      6%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Smith
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      79%·97.1 mph·29% whiff
    • FS
      14%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      7%·85.8 mph·— whiff
  • H. Gaddis
    9 pitches·22% CSW
    • SL
      56%·88.5 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      44%·94.7 mph·25% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

3

0

Runs

3

0

Errors

0

Current series

CLE wins series 2-1

Aug 25TBTB9@CLECLE0
Aug 26TBTB0@CLECLE3today
Aug 27TBTB3@CLECLE4

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Aug 25TBTB9@CLECLE0
Aug 26TBTB0@CLECLE3today
Aug 27TBTB3@CLECLE4
Sep 4CLECLE2@TBTB4
Sep 5CLECLE7@TBTB1
Sep 6CLECLE3@TBTB2
Sep 7CLECLE2@TBTB1

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTB ↔ CLE

Biggest swing: 9pp · Bottom 1st Inning

TBTB
Y. Diaz

Y. Diaz

DH

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1.500 OPS

S. Baz

S. Baz

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 7 K · 3 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

CLECLE
K. Manzardo

K. Manzardo

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 R · 0.667 OPS

P. Messick

P. Messick

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 4 H

How it ended

CLE beat TB 3-0.

Win probability

CLE vs TB

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CLEBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+9pp→ 63% WP

Manzardo · reached on infield single to shortstop, Kwan scored, Kayfus to second.

CLEBottom 1st Inning · 0-3
+8pp→ 78% WP

Rocchio · singled to right, Manzardo scored, Fry to third.

CLETop 4th Inning · 0-3
+9pp→ 84% WP

Caminero · grounded into double play, third to second to first, Simpson out at second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TB0000000000
CLE30000000—3

Period scoring

TB won 0 · CLE won 1

0
3

Inn 1

Manzardo 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

TB
CLE

Play-by-play · 459 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    TB 0·CLE 3

  2. T9

    B. Lowe struck out swinging.

    · ·

    TB 0·CLE 3

    +1pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 0·CLE 3

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TB 0·CLE 3

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 0·CLE 3

  6. T9

    Cade Smith pitches to Brandon Lowe

    · ·

    TB 0·CLE 3

  7. T9

    ·

    TB 0·CLE 3

  8. T9

    Díaz singled to right.

    ·

    TB 0·CLE 3

    −0.7pp

  9. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TB 0·CLE 3

  10. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    TB 0·CLE 3

  11. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    TB 0·CLE 3

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TB 0·CLE 3

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TB 0·CLE 3

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TB 0·CLE 3

  15. T9

    Cade Smith pitches to Yandy Diaz

    ·

    TB 0·CLE 3

  16. T9

    ·

    TB 0·CLE 3

  17. T9

    Caminero popped out to second.

    ·

    TB 0·CLE 3

    +1pp

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TB 0·CLE 3

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    TB 0·CLE 3

  20. T9

    Cade Smith pitches to Junior Caminero

    ·

    TB 0·CLE 3

  21. T9

    ·

    TB 0·CLE 3

  22. T9

    Simpson grounded out to second.

    ·

    TB 0·CLE 3

    +2pp

  23. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TB 0·CLE 3

  24. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    TB 0·CLE 3

  25. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TB 0·CLE 3

  26. T9

    Cade Smith pitches to Chandler Simpson

    ·

    TB 0·CLE 3

  27. T9

    Smith relieved Gaddis

    ·

    TB 0·CLE 3

  28. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    TB 0·CLE 3

  29. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    TB 0·CLE 3

  30. B8

    Kwan picked off and caught stealing second.

    ·

    TB 0·CLE 3

Team stats

TB

Away

Stat

CLE

Home

0

Runs

3

5

Hits

3

0

Errors

0

6

TB

3

0

HR

0

0

BB

3

8

K

9

9

LOB

6

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 13 players in cohort
  • Chandler SimpsonTB · LF
    SPRINT29.496

Player projections

CLE vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.2± 3.6low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    6.4± 2.1low
  • Drew RasmussenTB
    5.1± 2.8low

Hits

  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    2.0± 2.1high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    2.0± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.9± 1.5high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high
  • Victor Mesa Jr.TB
    0.7± 1.6low

Earned runs

  • Slade CecconiCLE
    3.0± 2.5low
  • Tanner BibeeCLE
    2.7± 3.7low
  • Steven MatzTB
    2.6± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · TB favored

  • Elo Static

    51.1%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.7%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    49.5%

    P(CLE win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.73 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.