MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2BOS

CLE

68-68

BOS

77-62

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts

36,021 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.7%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
63.2%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
62.4%
P(BOS win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
63.4%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.43 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BOS vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 92 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
7.0± 3.5low
Payton TolleBOS
6.0± 3.9low
Parker MessickCLE
5.8± 2.3low

Hits

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.1± 1.0high
Jose RamirezCLE
1.1± 1.1high
Caleb DurbinBOS
1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

Jose RamirezCLE
2.0± 2.3high
Caleb DurbinBOS
1.8± 2.6high
Willson ContrerasBOS
1.7± 2.4high

RBIs

Caleb DurbinBOS
0.6± 0.9high
Willson ContrerasBOS
0.6± 1.1high
Wilyer AbreuBOS
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Jake BennettBOS
3.0± 2.3low
Slade CecconiCLE
2.8± 2.5low
Joey CantilloCLE
2.7± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CLE

league avg

BOS

.689

OPS

.715

▶

.696

.317

OBP

.319

.314

4.03

Runs / G

4.50

4.00

3.79

Team ERA

◀

4.17

3.89

1.26

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.28

9.3

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

CLE 4 · BOS 6 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BOS +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CLE	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	4
BOS	2	1	0	0	2	1	0	0	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
S. KwanCF	.274	5	0	3	0	0	0	1
D. SchneemannCF	.218	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. Ramirez3B	.280	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. Manzardo1B	.233	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
B. NaylorC	.177	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
N. JonesRF	.218	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
G. ValeraLF	.000	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
C. KayfusLF	.184	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
B. RocchioSS	.231	4	0	1	2	0	0	1
D. FryRF	.156	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. NoelRF	.138	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	4	8	4	1	3	6

Player

AVG

RBI

.274

.218

.280

.233

.177

.218

.000

.184

.231

.156

.138

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
P. MessickSP	3.2	9	3	3	2	2	82
M. FestaRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	10
E. SabrowskiRP	0.1	2	2	2	2	1	22
J. JunisRP	1.2	1	1	1	0	1	15
Z. KentRP	2.0	2	0	0	1	1	37
Team	8.0	14	6	6	5	6	166

Player

3.2

0.1

0.1

1.2

2.0

Team

8.0

166

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
R. AnthonyLF	.291	5	1	2	0	0	0	1
A. Bregman3B	.286	5	1	1	0	0	0	0
T. StorySS	.260	4	1	3	2	1	1	0
R. Gonzalez1B	.296	5	0	2	1	0	0	1
R. RefsnyderDH	.283	5	1	2	0	0	0	2
N. EatonOF	.237	3	1	2	0	0	1	0
C. RafaelaCF	.248	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. LoweDH	.303	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. WongC	.193	2	1	1	0	0	2	1
J. DuranLF	.260	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. NarvaezC	.246	1	0	1	2	0	0	0
D. HamiltonSS	.201	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		36	6	14	5	1	5	6

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
B. BelloSP	5.0	6	3	3	3	4	100
J. WilsonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	6
S. MatzSP	1.2	2	1	1	0	1	23
G. WeissertRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. ChapmanRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	5
Team	9.0	8	4	4	3	6	136

Team

CLE

BOS

—

3 sub-models, blended.

BOS vs CLE.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BOS vs CLE.

3 sub-models, blended.