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    SF 0@COL 2
    +38.7ppmedium
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2SEA
SEA

SEA

73-64

4
2
CLE

CLE

68-67

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio
34,136 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

SEA 4 · CLE 2 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SEA +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SEA0000202004
CLE0020000002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

59%Last 7 · 68-48
62%Last 30 · 331-207
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 19, 25sim 97
    174
    3(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 24, 25sim 97
    182
    1(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 30, 25sim 97
    123
    5(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 6, 25sim 96
    193
    1(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 25, 25sim 95
    124
    3(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 24, 25sim 95
    176
    29(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Aug 31·Final/SeriesCLE wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Seattle Mariners went into Cleveland Guardians and beat them, 4–2.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SEA · top performer

SEA
Julio Rodriguez

Julio Rodriguez

CF

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

2

RBI

CLE · top performer

CLE
Daniel Schneemann

Daniel Schneemann

CF

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Seattle Mariners at Cleveland Guardians · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SEA73-64
4
2
CLE68-67
SEA73-64·CLE68-67
SEA

SEA

73-64

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
1-55112100
SPRINT26.941
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
0-22000011
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
2-44022002
SPRINT28.688
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
1-44010000
SPRINT23.81
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
1-33010012
J. PolancoJ. Polanco★1B
0-44000000
D. CanzoneD. Canzone★DH
1-44010000
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
2-44220000
SPRINT25.513
C. YoungC. Young★2B
1-33110010
SPRINT27.662
Team9-3333494135
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. MillerB. Miller★SP
6.0222131
G. SpeierG. SpeierRP
1.0000020
M. BrashM. BrashRP
1.0000010
A. MunozA. MunozRP
1.0000020
Team9.0222181
CLE

CLE

68-67

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. KwanS. Kwan★CF
1-44110001
SPRINT26.530
D. SchneemannD. Schneemann★CF
1-33112112
SPRINT27.457
J. RamirezJ. Ramirez★3B
0-44000000
SPRINT27.251
K. ManzardoK. Manzardo★1B
0-33000002
SPRINT25.411
N. JonesN. Jones★RF
0-33000001
C. KayfusC. Kayfus★LF
0-33000001
W. WilsonW. Wilson★3B
0-22000000
B. RocchioB. Rocchio★SS
0-33000000
A. HedgesA. Hedges★C
0-22000000
A. MartinezA. MartinezLF
0-11000000
B. NaylorB. NaylorC
0-11000001
Team2-2929222118
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. BibeeT. Bibee★SP
6.1644241
M. FestaM. FestaRP
0.2100100
K. AllardK. AllardRP
2.0200010
Team9.0944351

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SEA

  • B. Miller
    72 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      46%·94.9 mph·15% whiff
    • FS
      24%·84.4 mph·11% whiff
    • SI
      15%·94.5 mph·17% whiff
    • KC
      13%·83.5 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      3%·86.7 mph·— whiff
  • A. Munoz
    16 pitches·38% CSW
    • SL
      63%·84.5 mph·38% whiff
    • FF
      31%·97.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      6%·97.5 mph·— whiff
  • G. Speier
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • SL
      43%·84.1 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      36%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      21%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Brash
    10 pitches·40% CSW
    • SI
      50%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      20%·89.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·85.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      10%·94.7 mph·100% whiff

CLE

  • T. Bibee
    91 pitches·29% CSW
    • CH
      22%·81.8 mph·7% whiff
    • FF
      20%·94.3 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      19%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      15%·86.7 mph·29% whiff
    • ST
      14%·83.7 mph·71% whiff
    • CU
      10%·79.4 mph·17% whiff
  • K. Allard
    34 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      53%·90.3 mph·13% whiff
    • FC
      21%·85.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      18%·81.3 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      6%·71.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      3%·91.2 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Festa
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      50%·92.8 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      50%·84.5 mph·25% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

2

4

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Current series

CLE wins series 2-1

Aug 29SEASEA4@CLECLE5
Aug 30SEASEA3@CLECLE4
Aug 31SEASEA4@CLECLE2today

Season series

SEA wins series 4-2

Jun 14CLECLE2@SEASEA7
Jun 15CLECLE3@SEASEA4
Jun 15CLECLE0@SEASEA6
Aug 29SEASEA4@CLECLE5
Aug 30SEASEA3@CLECLE4
Aug 31SEASEA4@CLECLE2today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSEA ↔ CLE

Biggest swing: 29pp · Top 7th Inning

SEASEA
R. Arozarena

R. Arozarena

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.000 OPS

B. Miller

B. Miller

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

CLECLE
D. Schneemann

D. Schneemann

CF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

T. Bibee

T. Bibee

SP

Starting pitcher

6.1 IP · 4 K · 4 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

How it ended

SEA beat CLE 4-2. Rodr's play in the top 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (29pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

CLE vs SEA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CLEBottom 3rd Inning · 0-2
+21pp→ 77% WP

Schneemann · homered to right center (408 feet), Kwan scored.

SEATop 5th Inning · 2-2
+23pp→ 46% WP

Arozarena · homered to left center (421 feet), Crawford scored.

SEATop 7th Inning · 4-2
+29pp→ 83% WP

Rodr · íguez reached on infield single to second, Crawford scored and Young scored, Raleigh to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SEA0000202004
CLE0020000002

Period scoring

SEA won 2 · CLE won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
2

Inn 3

Schneemann 2

0
0

Inn 4

2
0

Inn 5

Arozarena 2

0
0

Inn 6

2
0

Inn 7

Rodr 2

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

SEA
CLE

Play-by-play · 504 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    SEA 4·CLE 2

  2. B9

    ·

    SEA 4·CLE 2

  3. B9

    Ramírez lined out to first.

    ·

    SEA 4·CLE 2

    −2pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SEA 4·CLE 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SEA 4·CLE 2

  6. B9

    Andres Munoz pitches to Jose Ramirez

    ·

    SEA 4·CLE 2

  7. B9

    ·

    SEA 4·CLE 2

  8. B9

    Schneemann struck out swinging.

    ·

    SEA 4·CLE 2

    −3pp

  9. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 4·CLE 2

  10. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 2

    ·

    SEA 4·CLE 2

  11. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SEA 4·CLE 2

  12. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 4·CLE 2

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SEA 4·CLE 2

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 4·CLE 2

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 4·CLE 2

  16. B9

    Andres Munoz pitches to Daniel Schneemann

    ·

    SEA 4·CLE 2

  17. B9

    ·

    SEA 4·CLE 2

  18. B9

    Kwan struck out looking.

    ·

    SEA 4·CLE 2

    −3pp

  19. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    SEA 4·CLE 2

  20. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SEA 4·CLE 2

  21. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SEA 4·CLE 2

  22. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    SEA 4·CLE 2

  23. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SEA 4·CLE 2

  24. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SEA 4·CLE 2

  25. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 4·CLE 2

  26. B9

    Andres Munoz pitches to Steven Kwan

    ·

    SEA 4·CLE 2

  27. B9

    Muñoz relieved Brash

    ·

    SEA 4·CLE 2

  28. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    SEA 4·CLE 2

  29. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    SEA 4·CLE 2

  30. T9

    ·

    SEA 4·CLE 2

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

CLE

Home

4

Runs

2

9

Hits

2

0

Errors

0

12

TB

6

1

HR

1

3

BB

1

5

K

8

17

LOB

2

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 13 players in cohort
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Luke RaleySEA · RF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

CLE vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.2± 3.6low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    6.4± 2.1low
  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low

Hits

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.5± 2.2high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    2.0± 2.1high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    2.0± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    0.7± 1.0high
  • Colt EmersonSEA
    0.6± 1.4low

Earned runs

  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Slade CecconiCLE
    3.0± 2.5low
  • Tanner BibeeCLE
    2.7± 3.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.8%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    49.6%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    51.3%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    48.5%

    P(CLE win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.15 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.