HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 8
  • MLBTop 4
    COL 0@ATH 0
    -4.2pphigh
  • MLBTop 3
    CHC 0@SF 0
    +1.8pphigh
  • MLBBot 5
    TB 2@LAA 4
    +58.8pplow
  • MLBBot 7
    STL 7@MIN 4
    -43.6pplow
  • MLBTop 8
    ATL 3@NYM 7
    +58.9pplow
  • MLBBot 8
    HOU 9@KC 5
    -49.3pplow
  • MLBBot 7
    SEA 8@WSH 1
    -47.4pplow
  • WNBA2:14 - 2nd
    GS 34@SEA 35
    +10.8pphigh
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1BAL
HOU

HOU

72-59

2
3
BAL

BAL

60-70

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland
19,746 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

HOU

HOU

league avg

BAL

BAL

.729

OPS

.715

.727

.319

OBP

.319

▶

.324

4.56

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.76

4.87

Team ERA

4.16

▶

4.53

1.44

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.40

8.5

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

HOU 2 · BAL 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked HOU +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
HOU0010000102
BAL100001103

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

66%Last 7 · 69-36
61%Last 30 · 307-194
Receipts →
MLB·Sun, Aug 24·Final/SeriesHOU wins series 3-1

Recap · MLB

Baltimore Orioles held off Houston Astros, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1K. AkinBAL+33.0pp
  2. 2G. HendersonBAL+24.0pp
  3. 3J. AltuveHOU−16.9pp

HOU · top performer

HOU
Carlos Correa

Carlos Correa

SS

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

BAL · top performer

BAL
Gunnar Henderson

Gunnar Henderson

SS

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Houston Astros at Baltimore Orioles · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
J. PenaSS
.3065021003
C. CorreaSS
.3493120010
J. Altuve2B
.2764000002
C. Walker1B
.2374010001
Y. DiazC
.2573020011
R. Urias3B
.2803000001
M. DubonSS
.2524010000
C. SmithRF
.2423100012
C. McCormickLF
.2064000002
- V. CaratiniC
.2650001000
- J. MeltonLF
.1550000000
Team332820312

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
S. ArrighettiSP
5.26220297
J. RooneyRP
1.11111223
C. KimbrelRP
1.01000216
Team8.083316136

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
C. CowserRF
.2164010002
J. Jackson2B
.3334010000
G. HendersonSS
.2834221101
R. Mountcastle1B
.2594021001
S. BasalloC
.2612010010
D. BeaversRF
.2963000002
A. JacksonC
.2223000000
V. MachinSS
.1253000000
L. VazquezSS
.1563111100
- D. JohnsonCF
.1430000000
Team30383216

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
T. RogersSP
7.05113993
R. GarciaRP
0.13110010
K. AkinRP
1.20000321
Team9.0822312124

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

HOU

  • S. Arrighetti
    97 pitches·23% CSW
    • CU
      22%·77.8 mph·9% whiff
    • FF
      18%·93.9 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      18%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·85.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      14%·86.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      14%·80.3 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Rooney
    23 pitches·43% CSW
    • ST
      61%·81.5 mph·43% whiff
    • SI
      22%·90.8 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      17%·91.2 mph·100% whiff
  • C. Kimbrel
    16 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      63%·93.1 mph·50% whiff
    • KC
      19%·84.2 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      13%·88.4 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      6%·85.4 mph·0% whiff

BAL

  • T. Rogers
    93 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      49%·92.1 mph·27% whiff
    • CH
      34%·84.8 mph·44% whiff
    • FC
      9%·81.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      6%·91.1 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      1%·75.7 mph·— whiff
  • K. Akin
    21 pitches·43% CSW
    • CH
      52%·87.2 mph·60% whiff
    • FF
      48%·94.6 mph·40% whiff
  • R. Garcia
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • SL
      70%·85.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      30%·95.2 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

8

2

Runs

3

0

Errors

0

Current series

HOU wins series 3-1

Aug 21HOUHOU7@BALBAL2
Aug 22HOUHOU10@BALBAL7
Aug 23HOUHOU9@BALBAL8
Aug 24HOUHOU2@BALBAL3today

Season series

HOU wins series 4-3

Aug 16BALBAL7@HOUHOU0
Aug 16BALBAL4@HOUHOU5
Aug 17BALBAL12@HOUHOU0
Aug 21HOUHOU7@BALBAL2
Aug 22HOUHOU10@BALBAL7
Aug 23HOUHOU9@BALBAL8
Aug 24HOUHOU2@BALBAL3today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowHOU ↔ BAL

Biggest swing: 18pp · Bottom 6th Inning

HOUHOU
C. Correa

C. Correa

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.417 OPS

S. Arrighetti

S. Arrighetti

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 2 K · 2 ER · 6 H

BALBAL
G. Henderson

G. Henderson

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

T. Rogers

T. Rogers

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

How it ended

BAL beat HOU 3-2. Mountcastle's play in the bottom 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Win probability

BAL vs HOU

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BALBottom 6th Inning · 1-2
+18pp→ 71% WP

Mountcastle · singled to right, Henderson scored.

BALBottom 7th Inning · 1-3
+13pp→ 87% WP

Vázquez homered to center (416 feet).

BALTop 8th Inning · 2-3
+10pp→ 88% WP

Dub · ón lined out to left.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
HOU0010000102
BAL10000110—3

Period scoring

HOU won 2 · BAL won 3

0
1

Inn 1

Henderson 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

Mountcastle 1

0
1

Inn 7

1
0

Inn 8

Caratini 1

0

Inn 9

HOU
BAL

Play-by-play · 515 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    HOU 2·BAL 3

  2. T9

    Peña struck out looking.

    ·

    HOU 2·BAL 3

    +4pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    HOU 2·BAL 3

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    HOU 2·BAL 3

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 2·BAL 3

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 2·BAL 3

  7. T9

    Keegan Akin pitches to Jeremy Pena

    ·

    HOU 2·BAL 3

  8. T9

    ·

    HOU 2·BAL 3

  9. T9

    McCormick struck out swinging.

    ·

    HOU 2·BAL 3

    +5pp

  10. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 2·BAL 3

  11. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    HOU 2·BAL 3

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 2·BAL 3

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 2·BAL 3

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 2·BAL 3

  15. T9

    Keegan Akin pitches to Chas McCormick

    ·

    HOU 2·BAL 3

  16. T9

    ·

    HOU 2·BAL 3

  17. T9

    Smith struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    HOU 2·BAL 3

    +7pp

  18. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 2·BAL 3

  19. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    HOU 2·BAL 3

  20. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    HOU 2·BAL 3

  21. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 2·BAL 3

  22. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    HOU 2·BAL 3

  23. T9

    Keegan Akin pitches to Cam Smith

    ·

    HOU 2·BAL 3

  24. T9

    Johnson in right field.

    HOU 2·BAL 3

  25. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    HOU 2·BAL 3

  26. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    HOU 2·BAL 3

  27. B8

    ·

    HOU 2·BAL 3

  28. B8

    Mountcastle struck out swinging.

    ·

    HOU 2·BAL 3

    −0.8pp

  29. B8

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 2·BAL 3

  30. B8

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 2·BAL 3

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

BAL

Home

2

Runs

3

8

Hits

8

0

Errors

0

8

TB

14

0

HR

2

3

BB

1

12

K

6

20

LOB

6

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 12 players in cohort
  • Dylan BeaversBAL · RF
    SPRINT29.194
  • Jeremy PenaHOU · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Colton CowserBAL · RF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

BAL vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.3± 2.5low
  • Spencer ArrighettiHOU
    5.3± 3.2low
  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.2± 3.1low

Hits

  • Taylor WardBAL
    1.2± 1.1high
  • Jeremy PenaHOU
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.1± 1.8high
  • Adley RutschmanBAL
    1.9± 2.9high

RBIs

  • Adley RutschmanBAL
    1.1± 1.6high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.4low
  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.7± 2.8low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.7± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.9%

ensemble · HOU favored

  • Elo Static

    49.5%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.7%

    P(BAL win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.4%

    P(BAL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.79 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.