HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 9
  • MLBTop 8
    ARI 2@CIN 2
    -8.1pppeak
  • MLBBot 7
    NYY 5@TOR 7
    +64.3pplow
  • MLBBot 5
    STL 3@MIN 1
    -40.2pplow
  • MLBBot 1
    TB 0@LAA 2
    +43.7ppmedium
  • MLBBot 4
    ATL 2@NYM 6
    +58.9pplow
  • MLBTop 5
    HOU 9@KC 5
    -49.3pplow
  • MLBTop 4
    SEA 5@WSH 0
    -47.4pplow
  • MLBEnd 7
    LAD 2@CHW 8
    +53.3pplow
  • MLBTop 9
    TEX 1@BOS 10
    +51.9pplow
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5ARI
ARI

ARI

68-69

6
1
LAD

LAD

77-59

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
47,632 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ARI

ARI

league avg

LAD

LAD

.691

OPS

.715

▶

.787

.306

OBP

.319

▶

.346

4.22

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.36

4.25

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.38

1.28

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.10

7.1

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

ARI 6 · LAD 1 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked LAD +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ARI0000003036
LAD0000001001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

68%Last 7 · 67-32
62%Last 30 · 305-190
Receipts →
MLB·Sat, Aug 30·Final/Seriestied 3-3

Recap · MLB

Arizona Diamondbacks went into Los Angeles Dodgers and beat them, 6–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1T. GlasnowLAD−44.8pp
  2. 2T. HernándezLAD−24.0pp
  3. 3E. HernándezLAD−24.0pp

ARI · top performer

ARI
Corbin Carroll

Corbin Carroll

RF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

LAD · top performer

LAD
Mookie Betts

Mookie Betts

SS

0.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
G. PerdomoSS
.2855000000
K. Marte2B
.2893010000
C. CarrollRF
.2564121101
L. Gurriel Jr.LF
.2494110001
B. Alexander3B
.2424220001
G. MorenoC
.2773001000
J. McCarthyCF
.2014000001
T. Locklear1B
.1633100012
I. Vargas1B
.2554123101
- A. ThomasCF
.2530000000
Team34685217

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
E. RodriguezSP
6.04004496
B. JarvisRP
0.21110117
A. SaalfrankRP
1.11001121
J. WoodfordRP
1.00000110
Team9.061157144

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniDH
.2763000011
M. BettsSS
.2483011010
W. SmithC
.2912000021
F. Freeman1B
.3003010010
T. HernándezLF
.2454000001
A. PagesCF
.2754010001
A. CallLF
.2684110001
E. Hernández1B
.2024010002
M. RojasSS
.2504010000
Team31161057

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
T. GlasnowSP
7.043306100
E. HenriquezRP
1.02000119
K. YatesRP
1.02331021
Team9.086617140

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

6

6

Runs

1

0

Errors

2

Current series

Series tied 3-3

May 20ARIARI9@LADLAD5
May 21ARIARI3@LADLAD4
May 22ARIARI1@LADLAD3
Aug 30ARIARI3@LADLAD0
Aug 31ARIARI6@LADLAD1today
Aug 31ARIARI4@LADLAD5

Season series

ARI leads series 5-4

May 9LADLAD3@ARIARI5
May 10LADLAD14@ARIARI11
May 11LADLAD0@ARIARI3
May 11LADLAD8@ARIARI1
May 20ARIARI9@LADLAD5
May 21ARIARI3@LADLAD4
May 22ARIARI1@LADLAD3
Aug 30ARIARI3@LADLAD0
Aug 31ARIARI6@LADLAD1today
Aug 31ARIARI4@LADLAD5
Sep 24LADLAD4@ARIARI5
Sep 25LADLAD5@ARIARI4
Sep 25LADLAD8@ARIARI0

Headlines · top performers

Game flowARI ↔ LAD

Biggest swing: 30pp · Top 7th Inning

ARIARI
C. Carroll

C. Carroll

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

E. Rodriguez

E. Rodriguez

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 4 BB

LADLAD
M. Betts

M. Betts

SS

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.833 OPS

T. Glasnow

T. Glasnow

SP

Starting pitcher

7.0 IP · 6 K · 3 ER · 4 H

How it ended

ARI beat LAD 6-1. Carroll's play in the top 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (30pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

LAD vs ARI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ARIBottom 5th Inning · 0-0
+15pp→ 32% WP

Ohtani · flied into double play, left to catcher, Rojas to third, E. Hernández thrown out at home.

ARITop 7th Inning · 1-0
+30pp→ 61% WP

Carroll · homered to right center (390 feet).

LADBottom 7th Inning · 3-1
+13pp→ 28% WP

Betts · singled to center, Call scored, Ohtani to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ARI0000003036
LAD0000001001

Period scoring

ARI won 2 · LAD won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

3
1

Inn 7

Moreno 2

Betts 1

0
0

Inn 8

3
0

Inn 9

Vargas 3

ARI
LAD

Play-by-play · 547 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    ARI 6·LAD 1

  2. B9

    ·

    ARI 6·LAD 1

  3. B9

    Rojas grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    ARI 6·LAD 1

  4. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 6·LAD 1

  5. B9

    Jake Woodford pitches to Miguel Rojas

    ·

    ARI 6·LAD 1

  6. B9

    ·

    ARI 6·LAD 1

  7. B9

    E. Hernández struck out looking.

    · ·

    ARI 6·LAD 1

  8. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    ARI 6·LAD 1

  9. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ARI 6·LAD 1

  10. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    ARI 6·LAD 1

  11. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    ARI 6·LAD 1

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 6·LAD 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ARI 6·LAD 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    ARI 6·LAD 1

  15. B9

    Jake Woodford pitches to Enrique Hernandez

    · ·

    ARI 6·LAD 1

  16. B9

    ·

    ARI 6·LAD 1

  17. B9

    Call lined out to right.

    ·

    ARI 6·LAD 1

  18. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 6·LAD 1

  19. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ARI 6·LAD 1

  20. B9

    Jake Woodford pitches to Alex Call

    ·

    ARI 6·LAD 1

  21. B9

    Woodford relieved Saalfrank

    ·

    ARI 6·LAD 1

  22. B9

    Thomas in center field.

    ARI 6·LAD 1

  23. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    ARI 6·LAD 1

  24. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    ARI 6·LAD 1

  25. T9

    ·

    ARI 6·LAD 1

  26. T9

    Perdomo lined out to second.

    ·

    ARI 6·LAD 1

  27. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 6·LAD 1

  28. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    ARI 6·LAD 1

  29. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    ARI 6·LAD 1

  30. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 6·LAD 1

Team stats

ARI

Away

Stat

LAD

Home

6

Runs

1

8

Hits

6

0

Errors

2

17

TB

8

2

HR

0

1

BB

5

7

K

7

8

LOB

18

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Jake McCarthyCOL · CF
    SPRINT29.698
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

LAD vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
    6.3± 3.0low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.5± 3.7low
  • Roki SasakiLAD
    5.5± 3.1low

Hits

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    1.5± 0.9high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    1.3± 1.0high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.0± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    2.8± 1.7high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.2± 2.5high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.0± 1.3high

RBIs

  • Ryan WardLAD
    1.1± 1.6low
  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Ketel MarteARI
    0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.6± 3.5low
  • Ryne NelsonARI
    3.4± 3.5low
  • Zac GallenARI
    3.2± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.3%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    59.3%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    61.5%

    P(LAD win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    60.2%

    P(LAD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.90 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.