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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+7ATH
DET

DET

78-57

0
7
ATH

ATH

63-72

Sutter Health Park · Sacramento, California
8,551 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATH wins

DET 0 · ATH 7 (by 7)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATH +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
DET0000000000
ATH130100027

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 62-39
62%Last 30 · 323-200
Receipts →
MLB·Wed, Aug 27·Final/SeriesATH wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Athletics held off Detroit Tigers, 7–0. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DET · top performer

DET
Dillon Dingler

Dillon Dingler

C

1.167OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

ATH · top performer

ATH
Zack Gelof

Zack Gelof

3B

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

4

RBI

MLB · Detroit Tigers at Athletics · final

MLB · Box scoreADVANCED

Final
DET78-57
0
7
ATH63-72
DET78-57·ATH63-72
DET

DET

78-57

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. KeithC. Keith★3B
0-44000002
SPRINT28.381
G. TorresG. Torres★2B
0-22000021
SPRINT25.18
K. CarpenterK. Carpenter★RF
0-33000000
SPRINT26.735
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
0-33000000
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
1-33010001
SPRINT26.123
W. PerezW. Perez★RF
0-33000003
Z. McKinstryZ. McKinstry★2B
0-33000000
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
1-22010011
SPRINT27.765
T. SweeneyT. Sweeney★SS
0-33000002
J. JonesJ. JonesDH
0-11000000
A. IbanezA. Ibanez2B
0-11000000
Team2-28280200310
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. MizeC. Mize★SP
3.1755241
R. MonteroR. MonteroRP
2.2000140
T. KahnleT. KahnleRP
1.0100000
D. SommersD. SommersRP
1.0322110
Team8.01177491
ATH

ATH

63-72

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. KurtzN. Kurtz★1B
2-44220012
SPRINT26.632
S. LangeliersS. Langeliers★C
1-33010010
B. RookerB. Rooker★DH
1-22011011
SPRINT27.148
T. SoderstromT. Soderstrom★LF
1-44011001
SPRINT26.735
L. ButlerL. Butler★RF
1-44010002
D. HernaizD. Hernaiz★SS
1-44010001
J. BledayJ. Bleday★LF
0-44100001
B. HarrisB. Harris★3B
2-33320010
Z. GelofZ. Gelof★3B
2-44124101
SPRINT28.891
Team11-32327116149
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. MoralesL. Morales★SP
7.0200270
J. SternerJ. SternerRP
1.0000030
BB. BassoRP
1.0000100
Team9.02003100

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

2

Hits

11

0

Runs

7

2

Errors

0

Current series

ATH wins series 3-0

Aug 26DETDET3@ATHATH8
Aug 27DETDET6@ATHATH7
Aug 28DETDET0@ATHATH7today

Season series

ATH wins series 4-2

Jun 24ATHATH4@DETDET11
Jun 25ATHATH3@DETDET0
Jun 26ATHATH0@DETDET8
Aug 26DETDET3@ATHATH8
Aug 27DETDET6@ATHATH7
Aug 28DETDET0@ATHATH7today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowDET ↔ ATH

Biggest swing: 19pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

DETDET
D. Dingler

D. Dingler

C

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.167 OPS

C. Mize

C. Mize

SP

Starting pitcher

3.1 IP · 4 K · 5 ER · 7 H · 2 BB

ATHATH
Z. Gelof

Z. Gelof

3B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

L. Morales

L. Morales

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 7 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 2 BB

How it ended

ATH beat DET 7-0. Gelof's play in the bottom 2nd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Win probability

ATH vs DET

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATHBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+10pp→ 56% WP

Soderstrom · singled to left, Kurtz scored, Langeliers to second.

DETTop 2nd Inning · 0-1
+7pp→ 56% WP

Torkelson · tripled to center.

ATHBottom 2nd Inning · 0-3
+19pp→ 74% WP

Gelof · homered to left center (400 feet), B. Harris scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
DET0000000000
ATH13010002—7

Period scoring

DET won 0 · ATH won 4

0
1

Inn 1

Soderstrom 1

0
3

Inn 2

Gelof 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Harris 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
2

Inn 8

Gelof 2

0

Inn 9

DET
ATH

Play-by-play · 517 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    DET 0·ATH 7

  2. T9

    Ibáñez grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    DET 0·ATH 7

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    DET 0·ATH 7

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    DET 0·ATH 7

  5. T9

    Brady Basso pitches to Andy Ibanez

    ·

    DET 0·ATH 7

  6. T9

    Ibáñez hit for Greene

    ·

    DET 0·ATH 7

  7. T9

    ·

    DET 0·ATH 7

  8. T9

    Jones grounded into double play, third to second to first, Torres out at second.

    · ·

    DET 0·ATH 7

  9. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    DET 0·ATH 7

  10. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    DET 0·ATH 7

  11. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    DET 0·ATH 7

  12. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    DET 0·ATH 7

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    DET 0·ATH 7

  14. T9

    Brady Basso pitches to Jahmai Jones

    · ·

    DET 0·ATH 7

  15. T9

    Jones hit for Carpenter

    ·

    DET 0·ATH 7

  16. T9

    ·

    DET 0·ATH 7

  17. T9

    Torres walked.

    ·

    DET 0·ATH 7

  18. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    ·

    DET 0·ATH 7

  19. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    DET 0·ATH 7

  20. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    DET 0·ATH 7

  21. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    DET 0·ATH 7

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    DET 0·ATH 7

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    DET 0·ATH 7

  24. T9

    Brady Basso pitches to Gleyber Torres

    ·

    DET 0·ATH 7

  25. T9

    Basso relieved Sterner

    ·

    DET 0·ATH 7

  26. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    DET 0·ATH 7

  27. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    DET 0·ATH 7

  28. B8

    · ·

    DET 0·ATH 7

  29. B8

    Kurtz struck out swinging.

    · ·

    DET 0·ATH 7

  30. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    DET 0·ATH 7

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

ATH

Home

0

Runs

7

2

Hits

11

2

Errors

0

4

TB

17

0

HR

1

3

BB

4

10

K

9

9

LOB

13

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 14 players in cohort
  • Shea LangeliersATH · C
    SPRINT28.586
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Jahmai JonesDET · DH
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

ATH vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low
  • Jeffrey SpringsATH
    4.8± 2.0low
  • Framber ValdezDET
    4.5± 3.1low

Hits

  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.0± 0.7high
  • Zack GelofATH
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.7± 1.6high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    1.7± 2.3high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.6± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Nick KurtzATH
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Brent RookerATH
    0.5± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Jacob LopezATH
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low
  • Framber ValdezDET
    2.7± 3.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.9%

ensemble · DET favored

  • Elo Static

    50.1%

    P(ATH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    51.0%

    P(ATH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    51.0%

    P(ATH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.42 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 9, 25sim 96
    184
    10(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 4, 25sim 96
    193
    23(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 13, 25sim 95
    191
    26(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 27, 25sim 95
    220
    21(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 10, 25sim 95
    187
    10(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 8, 25sim 94
    185
    10(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs