HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 9
  • MLBTop 3
    COL 0@ATH 0
    -18.1pphigh
  • MLBTop 2
    CHC 0@SF 0
    -12.4pphigh
  • MLBTop 7
    STL 3@MIN 4
    +41.4ppmedium
  • MLBMid 9
    ARI 5@CIN 2
    -51.8pplow
  • MLBBot 6
    ATL 3@NYM 7
    +58.9pplow
  • MLBTop 8
    HOU 9@KC 5
    -49.3pplow
  • MLBBot 4
    TB 0@LAA 4
    +62.6pplow
  • MLBTop 6
    SEA 8@WSH 1
    -47.4pplow
  • WNBA7:54 - 2nd
    GS 26@SEA 26
    +6.2pphigh
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3TB
TB

TB

65-69

4
1
WSH

WSH

53-81

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia
27,358 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TB

TB

league avg

WSH

WSH

.719

OPS

.715

▶

.740

.335

OBP

◀

.319

.322

4.50

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.33

3.95

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.74

1.23

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.40

7.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

TB 4 · WSH 1 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TB +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TB2000100014
WSH1000000001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

68%Last 7 · 67-32
62%Last 30 · 305-190
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Aug 29·Final/SeriesTB wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Tampa Bay Rays went into Washington Nationals and beat them, 4–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1C. AbramsWSH−25.3pp
  2. 2J. BellWSH−22.1pp
  3. 3R. AdamsWSH−19.1pp

TB · top performer

TB
Brandon Lowe

Brandon Lowe

2B

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

WSH · top performer

WSH
Brady House

Brady House

3B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Tampa Bay Rays at Washington Nationals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
C. SimpsonLF
.2955011001
J. Caminero3B
.2585020001
Y. DiazDH
.2873110011
B. Lowe2B
.2643112111
C. Morel1B
.2194010002
C. WilliamsSS
.2614000003
J. LoweLF
.2324000001
E. PereiraRF
.1393211111
N. FortesC
.1224010001
Team354842312

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
A. HouserSP
4.06113486
B. Van BelleRP
2.02000026
G. CleavingerRP
1.01001323
B. BakerRP
1.01000019
P. FairbanksRP
1.02000222
Team9.0121149176

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodRF
.2602100031
C. AbramsSS
.2705030001
J. BellDH
.2294010011
L. Garcia Jr.1B
.2602001001
R. AdamsC
.2075010002
D. LileLF
.2624010001
P. DeJong3B
.2484020000
D. CrewsRF
.2044030000
R. Hassell IIICF
.2274000001
- A. Chaparro1B
.2001000001
- B. House3B
.2371010000
Team361121049

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
M. ParkerRP
6.16330791
C. BeeterRP
0.2000029
C. HenryRP
1.00002222
P. PoulinRP
0.22111123
O. RibaltaRP
0.1000003
Team9.0844312148

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TB

  • A. Houser
    86 pitches·21% CSW
    • SI
      44%·94.6 mph·11% whiff
    • CH
      22%·85.9 mph·22% whiff
    • SL
      19%·88.3 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      12%·82.0 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      3%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Van Belle
    26 pitches·19% CSW
    • SI
      46%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      27%·85.2 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      15%·81.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      12%·87.9 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Cleavinger
    23 pitches·35% CSW
    • SL
      74%·87.8 mph·38% whiff
    • SI
      17%·97.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      9%·98.2 mph·100% whiff
  • P. Fairbanks
    22 pitches·41% CSW
    • SL
      59%·84.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      32%·96.4 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      9%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Baker
    19 pitches·16% CSW
    • FF
      42%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      37%·86.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      21%·89.8 mph·0% whiff

WSH

  • M. Parker
    91 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      45%·94.1 mph·10% whiff
    • CU
      35%·81.2 mph·32% whiff
    • SL
      18%·85.2 mph·56% whiff
    • FS
      2%·85.6 mph·— whiff
  • P. Poulin
    23 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      52%·91.4 mph·17% whiff
    • ST
      26%·79.7 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      22%·81.3 mph·50% whiff
  • C. Henry
    22 pitches·27% CSW
    • ST
      45%·80.5 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      36%·94.4 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      9%·86.8 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      9%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Beeter
    9 pitches·67% CSW
    • SL
      78%·88.0 mph·83% whiff
    • FF
      22%·97.8 mph·— whiff
  • O. Ribalta
    3 pitches·33% CSW
    • CH
      33%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      33%·97.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      33%·97.2 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

12

4

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Current series

TB wins series 3-0

Aug 29TBTB4@WSHWSH1today
Aug 30TBTB4@WSHWSH1
Aug 31TBTB7@WSHWSH4

Season series

TB leads series 1-0

Aug 29TBTB4@WSHWSH1today
Aug 30TBTB4@WSHWSH1
Aug 31TBTB7@WSHWSH4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTB ↔ WSH

Biggest swing: 17pp · Top 1st Inning

TBTB
B. Lowe

B. Lowe

2B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

A. Houser

A. Houser

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 6 H · 3 BB

WSHWSH
B. House

B. House

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

M. Parker

M. Parker

RP

Starting pitcher

6.1 IP · 7 K · 3 ER · 6 H

How it ended

TB beat WSH 4-1.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

WSH vs TB

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TBTop 1st Inning · 2-0
+17pp→ 75% WP

B. Lowe · homered to right center (402 feet), Díaz scored.

TBTop 5th Inning · 3-1
+10pp→ 81% WP

Pereira · homered to center (421 feet).

WSHBottom 7th Inning · 3-1
+14pp→ 39% WP

Abrams · singled to right, Wood to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TB2000100014
WSH1000000001

Period scoring

TB won 3 · WSH won 0

2
1

Inn 1

Lowe 2

Garc 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

1
0

Inn 5

Pereira 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

1
0

Inn 9

Simpson 1

TB
WSH

Play-by-play · 614 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    TB 4·WSH 1

  2. B9

    · ·

    TB 4·WSH 1

  3. B9

    Adams struck out swinging.

    · ·

    TB 4·WSH 1

    −5pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 4·WSH 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TB 4·WSH 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TB 4·WSH 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    TB 4·WSH 1

  8. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TB 4·WSH 1

  9. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TB 4·WSH 1

  10. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TB 4·WSH 1

  11. B9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Riley Adams

    · ·

    TB 4·WSH 1

  12. B9

    · ·

    TB 4·WSH 1

  13. B9

    House doubled to right, Bell to third.

    · ·

    TB 4·WSH 1

    +3pp

  14. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TB 4·WSH 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    TB 4·WSH 1

  16. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 4·WSH 1

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TB 4·WSH 1

  18. B9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Brady House

    · ·

    TB 4·WSH 1

  19. B9

    ·

    TB 4·WSH 1

  20. B9

    Bell singled to right.

    ·

    TB 4·WSH 1

    +0.9pp

  21. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TB 4·WSH 1

  22. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TB 4·WSH 1

  23. B9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Josh Bell

    ·

    TB 4·WSH 1

  24. B9

    ·

    TB 4·WSH 1

  25. B9

    Abrams grounded out to second.

    ·

    TB 4·WSH 1

    −1pp

  26. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TB 4·WSH 1

  27. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TB 4·WSH 1

  28. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TB 4·WSH 1

  29. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    TB 4·WSH 1

  30. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TB 4·WSH 1

Team stats

TB

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

4

Runs

1

8

Hits

12

0

Errors

0

15

TB

14

2

HR

0

3

BB

4

12

K

9

8

LOB

25

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 12 players in cohort
  • Chandler SimpsonTB · LF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Brady HouseWSH · 3B
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

WSH vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Drew RasmussenTB
    6.0± 4.2low
  • Cade CavalliWSH
    6.0± 4.1low
  • Foster GriffinWSH
    5.4± 2.7low

Hits

  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.5± 1.3high
  • Daylen LileWSH
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Junior CamineroTB
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.1± 1.7high
  • Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
    2.1± 2.6high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
    1.0± 1.8high
  • Ryan ViladeTB
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.8± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.7± 3.4low
  • Steven MatzTB
    2.6± 2.4low
  • Miles MikolasWSH
    2.3± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

42.2%

ensemble · TB favored

  • Elo Static

    46.6%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    43.8%

    P(WSH win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    47.0%

    P(WSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.42 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.