HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 9
  • MLBEnd 2
    COL 0@ATH 0
    -12.8pphigh
  • MLBTop 2
    CHC 0@SF 0
    -12.4pphigh
  • MLBTop 7
    STL 3@MIN 4
    +41.4ppmedium
  • MLBMid 9
    ARI 5@CIN 2
    -51.8pplow
  • MLBBot 6
    ATL 3@NYM 7
    +58.9pplow
  • MLBTop 8
    HOU 9@KC 5
    -49.3pplow
  • MLBMid 4
    TB 0@LAA 4
    +62.6pplow
  • MLBTop 6
    SEA 8@WSH 1
    -47.4pplow
  • WNBA8:05 - 2nd
    GS 26@SEA 25
    +3.4pphigh
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1SF
CHC

CHC

76-58

3
4
SF

SF

66-68

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California
32,187 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHC

CHC

league avg

SF

SF

.721

OPS

.715

.728

.331

OBP

◀

.319

.309

4.53

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.13

4.30

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.54

1.25

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.41

8.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SF wins

CHC 3 · SF 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CHC +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHC1100010003
SF2000010014

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

68%Last 7 · 67-32
62%Last 30 · 305-190
Receipts →
MLB·Thu, Aug 28·Final/SeriesSF wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

San Francisco Giants held off Chicago Cubs, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1L. WebbSF−46.9pp
  2. 2S. ImanagaCHC−46.5pp
  3. 3W. AdamesSF+41.0pp

CHC · top performer

CHC
Dansby Swanson

Dansby Swanson

SS

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

SF · top performer

SF
Willy Adames

Willy Adames

SS

2.500OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

MLB · Chicago Cubs at San Francisco Giants · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
M. Busch1B
.2604111100
K. TuckerRF
.2653120011
I. HappLF
.2274011002
P. Crow-ArmstrongCF
.2564010001
N. Hoerner2B
.2904010000
O. CaissieRF
.2083000002
D. SwansonSS
.2473111101
R. McGuireC
.2163000002
M. ShawRF
.2283010000
Team31383219

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
S. ImanagaSP
7.05331592
B. KellerRP
1.00000118
D. PalenciaRP
0.13110013
Team8.184416123

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
H. RamosLF
.2653000000
R. Devers1B
.2413110012
W. AdamesSS
.2244223200
M. Chapman3B
.2314000001
C. SchmittDH
.2404010001
W. Flores1B
.2454010001
J. LeeRF
.2614021000
L. MatosRF
.2013000001
P. BaileyC
.2103010000
- C. Koss2B
.2500100000
Team32484216

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
L. WebbSP
7.07330794
J. ButtoRP
1.0100018
J. LucchesiRP
0.20001111
R. WalkerRP
0.1000004
Team9.083319117

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHC

  • S. Imanaga
    92 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      55%·90.8 mph·4% whiff
    • FS
      23%·83.8 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      20%·79.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      2%·88.2 mph·— whiff
  • B. Keller
    18 pitches·39% CSW
    • FF
      61%·97.2 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      17%·96.8 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      17%·86.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·91.6 mph·100% whiff
  • D. Palencia
    13 pitches·15% CSW
    • FF
      62%·99.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      31%·88.5 mph·33% whiff
    • FS
      8%·87.7 mph·— whiff

SF

  • L. Webb
    94 pitches·33% CSW
    • ST
      27%·84.7 mph·45% whiff
    • CH
      24%·86.4 mph·29% whiff
    • SI
      24%·92.5 mph·14% whiff
    • FF
      19%·92.5 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      5%·91.2 mph·33% whiff
  • J. Lucchesi
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      45%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      45%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      9%·80.1 mph·— whiff
  • J. Butto
    8 pitches·38% CSW
    • CH
      25%·89.3 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      25%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      25%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·87.0 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Walker
    4 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      100%·95.8 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

8

3

Runs

4

0

Errors

0

Current series

SF wins series 3-0

Aug 27CHCCHC2@SFSF5
Aug 28CHCCHC3@SFSF12
Aug 28CHCCHC3@SFSF4today

Season series

SF wins series 5-1

May 5SFSF2@CHCCHC9
May 6SFSF14@CHCCHC5
May 7SFSF3@CHCCHC1
Aug 27CHCCHC2@SFSF5
Aug 28CHCCHC3@SFSF12
Aug 28CHCCHC3@SFSF4today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHC ↔ SF

Biggest swing: 33pp · Top 6th Inning

CHCCHC
D. Swanson

D. Swanson

SS

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

S. Imanaga

S. Imanaga

SP

Starting pitcher

7.0 IP · 5 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

SFSF
W. Adames

W. Adames

SS

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-4 · 2 HR · 2.500 OPS

L. Webb

L. Webb

SP

Starting pitcher

7.0 IP · 7 K · 3 ER · 7 H

How it ended

SF beat CHC 4-3. Busch's play in the top 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (33pp).

Win probability

SF vs CHC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SFBottom 1st Inning · 1-2
+21pp→ 63% WP

Adames · homered to left center (417 feet), Devers scored.

CHCTop 6th Inning · 3-2
+33pp→ 68% WP

Busch · homered to center (412 feet).

SFBottom 9th Inning · 3-4
+32pp→ 100% WP

Lee · singled to right, Koss scored, Flores to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHC1100010003
SF2000010014

Period scoring

CHC won 1 · SF won 2

1
2

Inn 1

Happ 1

Adames 2

1
0

Inn 2

Swanson 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

1
1

Inn 6

Busch 1

Adames 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
1

Inn 9

Lee 1

CHC
SF

Play-by-play · 481 plays

period
event
player
  1. B9

    · ·

    CHC 3·SF 4

  2. B9

    Lee singled to right, Koss scored, Flores to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CHC 3·SF 4

    +32pp

  3. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHC 3·SF 4

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    CHC 3·SF 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHC 3·SF 3

  6. B9

    Daniel Palencia pitches to Jung Hoo Lee

    · ·

    CHC 3·SF 4

  7. B9

    Koss ran for Schmitt

    ·

    CHC 3·SF 3

  8. B9

    · ·

    CHC 3·SF 3

  9. B9

    Flores singled to center, Schmitt to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CHC 3·SF 3

    +6pp

  10. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHC 3·SF 3

  11. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHC 3·SF 3

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    CHC 3·SF 3

  13. B9

    Daniel Palencia pitches to Wilmer Flores

    · ·

    CHC 3·SF 3

  14. B9

    ·

    CHC 3·SF 3

  15. B9

    Schmitt singled to center.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CHC 3·SF 3

    +5pp

  16. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 3·SF 3

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    CHC 3·SF 3

  18. B9

    Daniel Palencia pitches to Casey Schmitt

    ·

    CHC 3·SF 3

  19. B9

    ·

    CHC 3·SF 3

  20. B9

    Chapman grounded out to third.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CHC 3·SF 3

    −6pp

  21. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 3·SF 3

  22. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHC 3·SF 3

  23. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHC 3·SF 3

  24. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 3·SF 3

  25. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHC 3·SF 3

  26. B9

    Daniel Palencia pitches to Matt Chapman

    ·

    CHC 3·SF 3

  27. B9

    Palencia relieved Keller

    ·

    CHC 3·SF 3

  28. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    CHC 3·SF 3

  29. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    CHC 3·SF 3

  30. T9

    · ·

    CHC 3·SF 3

Team stats

CHC

Away

Stat

SF

Home

3

Runs

4

8

Hits

8

0

Errors

0

16

TB

14

2

HR

2

1

BB

1

9

K

6

7

LOB

6

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC · CF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Owen CaissieMIA · RF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Casey SchmittSF · DH
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

SF vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Landen RouppSF
    5.9± 2.1low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.3± 3.7low
  • Trevor McDonaldSF
    5.3± 2.0low

Hits

  • Jung Hoo LeeSF
    1.7± 1.1high
  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.5± 0.5high
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
    1.3± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
    2.5± 2.9high
  • Matt ChapmanSF
    2.5± 3.7high
  • Bryce EldridgeSF
    2.1± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Matt ChapmanSF
    1.3± 2.4high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    0.8± 1.6high
  • Bryce EldridgeSF
    0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Edward CabreraCHC
    3.2± 2.6low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    3.2± 4.0low
  • Colin ReaCHC
    3.1± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

41.8%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    44.2%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    44.8%

    P(SF win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    45.6%

    P(SF win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.58 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.