MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2BOS

MIA

58-65

BOS

68-56

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts

36,192 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.2%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
60.8%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
64.0%
P(BOS win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
60.8%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.50 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BOS vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 95 high confidence

Strikeouts

Max MeyerMIA
6.4± 1.9low
Payton TolleBOS
6.0± 3.9low
Ranger SuarezBOS
5.6± 3.6low

Hits

Otto LopezMIA
1.6± 1.1high
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.1± 1.0high
Caleb DurbinBOS
1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

Otto LopezMIA
2.3± 2.0high
Caleb DurbinBOS
1.8± 2.6high
Willson ContrerasBOS
1.7± 2.4high

RBIs

Kyle StowersMIA
0.7± 1.1high
Caleb DurbinBOS
0.6± 0.9high
Willson ContrerasBOS
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.3± 3.6low
Jake BennettBOS
3.0± 2.3low
Connelly EarlyBOS
2.1± 2.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIA

league avg

BOS

.707

OPS

◀

.715

.696

.324

OBP

◀

.319

.314

4.34

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.00

4.11

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.89

1.25

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.28

8.8

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

MIA 5 · BOS 7 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BOS +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIA	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	3	5
BOS	2	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	7

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
X. Edwards2B	.306	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. MarseeCF	.353	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. RamirezC	.237	4	2	2	1	1	0	0
O. LopezSS	.241	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
L. HicksC	.261	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
H. HernandezLF	.286	4	1	1	1	0	0	1
T. JohnstonRF	.214	2	1	2	1	1	0	0
D. HillRF	.212	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
G. Pauley3B	.229	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. MyersCF	.237	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. Wagaman1B	.232	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
J. Sanoja3B	.240	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	5	8	5	2	0	3

Player

AVG

RBI

.306

.353

.237

.241

.261

.286

.214

.212

.229

.237

.232

.240

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
C. QuantrillRP	3.2	8	7	7	1	2	80
T. ZuberRP	2.1	1	0	0	2	2	51
J. SimpsonRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	1	28
Team	8.0	9	7	7	3	5	159

Player

C. QuantrillRP

3.2

T. ZuberRP

2.1

J. SimpsonRP

2.0

Team

8.0

159

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
R. AnthonyLF	.281	4	2	2	0	0	1	0
A. Bregman3B	.303	3	1	2	1	0	1	0
J. DuranLF	.262	2	1	1	1	0	1	1
T. StorySS	.260	4	2	2	3	1	0	1
M. YoshidaDH	.260	4	0	1	2	0	0	0
R. Gonzalez1B	.295	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. AbreuRF	.249	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. RafaelaCF	.257	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
C. WongC	.169	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		33	7	9	7	1	3	5

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
B. BelloSP	6.1	4	2	2	0	2	78
J. WilsonRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	6
S. MatzSP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	8
I. CampbellRP	0.2	4	3	3	0	0	17
A. ChapmanRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	3
Team	9.0	8	5	5	0	3	112

Team

MIA

BOS

—

3 sub-models, blended.

BOS vs MIA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BOS vs MIA.

3 sub-models, blended.