HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 9
  • MLBTop 3
    COL 0@ATH 0
    -18.1pphigh
  • MLBTop 2
    CHC 0@SF 0
    -12.4pphigh
  • MLBTop 7
    STL 3@MIN 4
    +41.4ppmedium
  • MLBMid 9
    ARI 5@CIN 2
    -51.8pplow
  • MLBEnd 6
    ATL 3@NYM 7
    +58.9pplow
  • MLBTop 8
    HOU 9@KC 5
    -49.3pplow
  • MLBBot 4
    TB 0@LAA 4
    +62.6pplow
  • MLBTop 6
    SEA 8@WSH 1
    -47.4pplow
  • WNBA7:54 - 2nd
    GS 26@SEA 27
    +9.0pphigh
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4PHI
PHI

PHI

70-52

6
2
WSH

WSH

49-73

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia
35,143 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PHI

PHI

league avg

WSH

WSH

.681

OPS

.715

▶

.740

.296

OBP

.319

▶

.322

4.00

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.33

4.04

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.74

1.30

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.40

9.5

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

PHI 6 · WSH 2 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PHI2000004006
WSH1001000002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

68%Last 7 · 67-32
62%Last 30 · 305-190
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Aug 15·Final/SeriesPHI wins series 4-3

Recap · MLB

Philadelphia Phillies went into Washington Nationals and beat them, 6–2.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1K. SchwarberPHI+50.6pp
  2. 2B. StottPHI+38.1pp
  3. 3B. MarshPHI+35.8pp

PHI · top performer

PHI
Kyle Schwarber

Kyle Schwarber

DH

1.933OPS

3-1

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

WSH · top performer

WSH
Daylen Lile

Daylen Lile

LF

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerSS
.2865120000
K. SchwarberDH
.2503213121
B. Harper1B
.2585122100
J.T. RealmutoC
.2692010011
N. CastellanosRF
.2524000000
H. BaderCF
.1673000001
E. Sosa2B
.2604000002
O. KempLF
.2282000002
W. Wilson3B
.2412000001
- B. Stott2B
.2411100010
- B. MarshLF
.2691100011
Team32665259

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
Z. WheelerSP
5.04222697
T. BanksRP
1.00000011
O. KerkeringRP
1.00000011
M. StrahmRP
1.00001114
J. DuranRP
0.0100004
D. RobertsonRP
1.01000116
Team9.062238153

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodRF
.2593100012
C. AbramsSS
.2664011002
J. BellDH
.2284000000
P. DeJong3B
.2544010000
L. Garcia Jr.1B
.2604010000
D. LileLF
.2594111101
D. CrewsRF
.2004010001
R. AdamsC
.1993010010
R. Hassell IIICF
.2432000002
- J. YoungCF
.2220000010
Team32262138

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
M. GoreSP
6.04222791
C. BeeterRP
0.10222114
K. PilkingtonRP
0.1222009
O. RibaltaRP
1.10000013
P. PoulinRP
1.00001112
Team9.066659139

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PHI

  • Z. Wheeler
    97 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      37%·95.7 mph·14% whiff
    • ST
      22%·82.8 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      16%·80.6 mph·38% whiff
    • FC
      8%·91.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      8%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      8%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Robertson
    16 pitches·19% CSW
    • FC
      44%·92.2 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      44%·84.9 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      6%·91.8 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      6%·83.4 mph·— whiff
  • M. Strahm
    14 pitches·43% CSW
    • FF
      43%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      36%·82.6 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      14%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      7%·89.0 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Banks
    11 pitches·9% CSW
    • ST
      45%·80.7 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      27%·85.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      9%·83.0 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      9%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      9%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
  • O. Kerkering
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • ST
      45%·86.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      27%·96.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      27%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Duran
    4 pitches·25% CSW
    • FS
      75%·97.1 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      25%·87.1 mph·0% whiff

WSH

  • M. Gore
    91 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      44%·95.1 mph·18% whiff
    • CU
      30%·81.5 mph·40% whiff
    • SL
      12%·88.0 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      11%·86.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      3%·90.0 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Beeter
    14 pitches·14% CSW
    • FF
      71%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      29%·86.8 mph·100% whiff
  • O. Ribalta
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      54%·97.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      23%·87.8 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      15%·87.1 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      8%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Poulin
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • FF
      42%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      42%·79.2 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      17%·89.9 mph·50% whiff
  • K. Pilkington
    9 pitches·11% CSW
    • FF
      78%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      22%·85.6 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

6

6

Runs

2

0

Errors

1

Current series

PHI wins series 4-3

Mar 27PHIPHI7@WSHWSH3
Mar 29PHIPHI11@WSHWSH6
Mar 30PHIPHI1@WSHWSH5
Aug 14PHIPHI2@WSHWSH3
Aug 15PHIPHI6@WSHWSH2today
Aug 16PHIPHI0@WSHWSH2
Aug 17PHIPHI11@WSHWSH9

Season series

PHI leads series 5-3

Mar 27PHIPHI7@WSHWSH3
Mar 29PHIPHI11@WSHWSH6
Mar 30PHIPHI1@WSHWSH5
Apr 29WSHWSH6@PHIPHI7
Apr 30WSHWSH2@PHIPHI7
May 1WSHWSH4@PHIPHI2
Aug 14PHIPHI2@WSHWSH3
Aug 15PHIPHI6@WSHWSH2today
Aug 16PHIPHI0@WSHWSH2
Aug 17PHIPHI11@WSHWSH9
Aug 22WSHWSH5@PHIPHI4
Aug 23WSHWSH4@PHIPHI6
Aug 24WSHWSH2@PHIPHI3

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPHI ↔ WSH

Biggest swing: 36pp · Top 7th Inning

PHIPHI
K. Schwarber

K. Schwarber

DH

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.933 OPS

Z. Wheeler

Z. Wheeler

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

WSHWSH
D. Lile

D. Lile

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

M. Gore

M. Gore

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 7 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

How it ended

PHI beat WSH 6-2. Schwarber's play in the top 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (36pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

WSH vs PHI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
WSHBottom 1st Inning · 2-1
+12pp→ 41% WP

Abrams · doubled to center, Wood scored.

WSHBottom 4th Inning · 2-2
+13pp→ 42% WP

Lile · homered to right center (388 feet).

PHITop 7th Inning · 5-2
+36pp→ 90% WP

Schwarber · homered to right center (456 feet), Stott scored and Marsh scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PHI2000004006
WSH1001000002

Period scoring

PHI won 2 · WSH won 1

2
1

Inn 1

Harper 2

Abrams 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Lile 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

4
0

Inn 7

Schwarber 3

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

PHI
WSH

Play-by-play · 576 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    PHI 6·WSH 2

  2. B9

    · ·

    PHI 6·WSH 2

  3. B9

    Adams lined out to right.

    · ·

    PHI 6·WSH 2

    −2pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PHI 6·WSH 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    PHI 6·WSH 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    PHI 6·WSH 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PHI 6·WSH 2

  8. B9

    David Robertson pitches to Riley Adams

    · ·

    PHI 6·WSH 2

  9. B9

    · ·

    PHI 6·WSH 2

  10. B9

    Crews lined out to shortstop.

    · ·

    PHI 6·WSH 2

    −3pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PHI 6·WSH 2

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    PHI 6·WSH 2

  13. B9

    David Robertson pitches to Dylan Crews

    · ·

    PHI 6·WSH 2

  14. B9

    · ·

    PHI 6·WSH 2

  15. B9

    Lile struck out swinging.

    · ·

    PHI 6·WSH 2

    −4pp

  16. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    PHI 6·WSH 2

  17. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PHI 6·WSH 2

  18. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PHI 6·WSH 2

  19. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    PHI 6·WSH 2

  20. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PHI 6·WSH 2

  21. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PHI 6·WSH 2

  22. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    PHI 6·WSH 2

  23. B9

    David Robertson pitches to Daylen Lile

    · ·

    PHI 6·WSH 2

  24. B9

    · ·

    PHI 6·WSH 2

  25. B9

    García Jr. doubled to left, DeJong to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    PHI 6·WSH 2

    +6pp

  26. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PHI 6·WSH 2

  27. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    PHI 6·WSH 2

  28. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PHI 6·WSH 2

  29. B9

    David Robertson pitches to Luis Garcia Jr.

    · ·

    PHI 6·WSH 2

  30. B9

    Robertson relieved Duran

    ·

    PHI 6·WSH 2

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

6

Runs

2

6

Hits

6

0

Errors

1

13

TB

11

2

HR

1

5

BB

3

9

K

8

15

LOB

16

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 12 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • J.T. RealmutoPHI · C
    SPRINT28.381
  • Edmundo SosaPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

WSH vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    8.1± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.0± 3.3low
  • Cade CavalliWSH
    6.0± 4.1low

Hits

  • Brandon MarshPHI
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Daylen LileWSH
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Alec BohmPHI
    1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Brandon MarshPHI
    2.2± 2.2high
  • Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
    2.1± 2.6high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
    1.0± 1.8high
  • Alec BohmPHI
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Brandon MarshPHI
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Aaron NolaPHI
    3.5± 2.6low
  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.4± 3.1low
  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.7± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.3%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    39.9%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    38.1%

    P(WSH win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    40.6%

    P(WSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.05 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.