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  • MLBBot 3
    DET 1@CHW 2
    +26.8pplow
  • WNBA1:32 - 4th
    SEA 68@TOR 91
    +39.9pplow
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3SEA
TB

TB

57-62

3
6
SEA

SEA

66-53

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington
37,434 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

TB 3 · SEA 6 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SEA +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TB0111000003
SEA400000116

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 6, 25sim 97
    245
    19(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 10, 25sim 96
    304
    12(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 13, 25sim 96
    305
    16(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 96
    15
    22(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 2, 25sim 95
    66
    5(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 2, 25sim 95
    153
    16(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Aug 10·Final/SeriesSEA wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Seattle Mariners held off Tampa Bay Rays, 6–3.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TB · top performer

TB
Ha-Seong Kim

Ha-Seong Kim

SS

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

SEA · top performer

SEA
Josh Naylor

Josh Naylor

1B

2.667OPS

2-1

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TB57-62
3
6
SEA66-53
TB57-62·SEA66-53
TB

TB

57-62

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. SimpsonC. Simpson★LF
2-55120000
SPRINT29.496
Y. DiazY. Diaz★DH
1-44011001
SPRINT25.716
B. LoweB. Lowe★2B
0-44000002
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
1-44010001
SPRINT25.716
J. LoweJ. Lowe★LF
1-33110012
SPRINT27.251
H. FeducciaH. Feduccia★C
0-44000000
H. KimH. Kim★SS
2-33122110
J. MangumJ. Mangum★LF
1-44010002
T. PetersT. Peters★CF
0-22000002
C. MorelC. Morel1B
0-22000002
Team8-35353831212
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. HouserA. Houser★SP
5.0644341
G. CleavingerG. CleavingerRP
1.0000100
B. BakerB. BakerRP
1.0111021
E. UcetaE. UcetaRP
1.0211130
Team8.0966592
SEA

SEA

66-53

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
1-44110001
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
1-55112102
SPRINT25.716
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
2-33120001
SPRINT28.688
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
1-22211110
SPRINT23.81
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
1-44012001
SPRINT25.818
J. PolancoJ. Polanco★1B
1-44110001
M. GarverM. Garver★C
0-22000021
D. CanzoneD. Canzone★DH
2-44021000
SPRINT25.920
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
0-22000022
Team9-3030696259
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. WooB. Woo★SP
6.0733191
C. FergusonC. FergusonRP
1.2100120
C. VargasC. VargasRP
0.1000000
M. BrashM. BrashRP
1.0000010
Team9.08332121

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TB

  • A. Houser
    94 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      43%·95.3 mph·26% whiff
    • CH
      20%·86.2 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      16%·87.8 mph·14% whiff
    • CU
      11%·82.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      11%·95.8 mph·25% whiff
  • E. Uceta
    24 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      50%·94.3 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      33%·89.0 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      13%·89.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      4%·95.3 mph·— whiff
  • B. Baker
    20 pitches·30% CSW
    • CH
      50%·85.2 mph·29% whiff
    • FF
      35%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      15%·89.4 mph·100% whiff
  • G. Cleavinger
    11 pitches·18% CSW
    • SI
      45%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      27%·80.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      18%·89.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      9%·97.9 mph·0% whiff

SEA

  • B. Woo
    99 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      63%·95.6 mph·27% whiff
    • SI
      21%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      9%·88.5 mph·60% whiff
    • ST
      4%·86.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      3%·89.7 mph·— whiff
  • C. Ferguson
    39 pitches·23% CSW
    • FC
      38%·88.6 mph·18% whiff
    • SI
      26%·93.6 mph·20% whiff
    • SV
      21%·81.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      15%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Brash
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • SL
      67%·86.1 mph·80% whiff
    • CH
      17%·90.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      8%·95.3 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      8%·97.8 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Vargas
    3 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      67%·99.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      33%·97.9 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

9

3

Runs

6

0

Errors

0

Current series

SEA wins series 3-0

Aug 9TBTB2@SEASEA3
Aug 10TBTB4@SEASEA7
Aug 10TBTB3@SEASEA6today

Season series

SEA leads series 3-0

Aug 9TBTB2@SEASEA3
Aug 10TBTB4@SEASEA7
Aug 10TBTB3@SEASEA6today
Sep 1SEASEA2@TBTB10
Sep 2SEASEA5@TBTB6
Sep 3SEASEA4@TBTB9

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTB ↔ SEA

Biggest swing: 13pp · Top 5th Inning

TBTB
H. Kim

H. Kim

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

A. Houser

A. Houser

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 4 ER · 6 H · 3 BB

SEASEA
J. Naylor

J. Naylor

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.667 OPS

B. Woo

B. Woo

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 9 K · 3 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

How it ended

SEA beat TB 6-3.

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SEABottom 1st Inning · 0-2
+13pp→ 82% WP

Raleigh · homered to right (376 feet), Arozarena scored.

TBTop 5th Inning · 3-4
+13pp→ 38% WP

Simpson · doubled to left.

SEABottom 7th Inning · 3-5
+10pp→ 89% WP

Naylor · homered to right (360 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TB0111000003
SEA40000011—6

Team stats

TB

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

3

Runs

6

8

Hits

9

0

Errors

0

17

TB

15

1

HR

2

2

BB

5

12

K

9

14

LOB

16

Win probability

SEA vs TB

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

TB won 3 · SEA won 3

0
4

Inn 1

Raleigh 2

1
0

Inn 2

Kim 1

1
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Kim 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
1

Inn 7

Naylor 1

0
1

Inn 8

Canzone 1

0

Inn 9

TB
SEA

Play-by-play · 578 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    TB 3·SEA 6

  2. T9

    Simpson grounded out to second.

    ·

    TB 3·SEA 6

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TB 3·SEA 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    TB 3·SEA 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    TB 3·SEA 6

  6. T9

    Matt Brash pitches to Chandler Simpson

    ·

    TB 3·SEA 6

  7. T9

    ·

    TB 3·SEA 6

  8. T9

    Morel struck out looking.

    ·

    TB 3·SEA 6

    +0.8pp

  9. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    TB 3·SEA 6

  10. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    TB 3·SEA 6

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    TB 3·SEA 6

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    TB 3·SEA 6

  13. T9

    Matt Brash pitches to Christopher Morel

    ·

    TB 3·SEA 6

  14. T9

    ·

    TB 3·SEA 6

  15. T9

    Mangum grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    TB 3·SEA 6

    +2pp

  16. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TB 3·SEA 6

  17. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    TB 3·SEA 6

  18. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    TB 3·SEA 6

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    TB 3·SEA 6

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    TB 3·SEA 6

  21. T9

    Matt Brash pitches to Jake Mangum

    ·

    TB 3·SEA 6

  22. T9

    Brash relieved Vargas

    ·

    TB 3·SEA 6

  23. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    TB 3·SEA 6

  24. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    TB 3·SEA 6

  25. B8

    · ·

    TB 3·SEA 6

  26. B8

    Raleigh struck out swinging.

    · ·

    TB 3·SEA 6

  27. B8

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 3·SEA 6

  28. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 3·SEA 6

  29. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    TB 3·SEA 6

  30. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TB 3·SEA 6

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 15 players in cohort
  • Chandler SimpsonTB · LF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Jake MangumPIT · LF
    SPRINT2993
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688

Player projections

SEA vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low
  • Emerson HancockSEA
    5.5± 4.3low
  • Bryan WooSEA
    5.1± 4.1low

Hits

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.5± 2.2high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    2.0± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.9± 1.5high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • George KirbySEA
    2.6± 2.0low
  • Steven MatzTB
    2.6± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.3%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    61.0%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    61.4%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    60.5%

    P(SEA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.37 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.