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  • WNBA10:00 - 3rd
    SEA 36@TOR 37
    -1.3pppeak
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1TB
TB

TB

73-75

5
4
CHC

CHC

84-64

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois
39,712 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

TB 5 · CHC 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CHC +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TB0000120115
CHC0102001004

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Oct 2, 25sim 98
    66
    5(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 20, 25sim 97
    263
    19(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 12, 25sim 97
    304
    16(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 23, 25sim 97
    62
    5(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 20, 25sim 96
    286
    13(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 10, 25sim 96
    303
    12(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sat, Sep 13·Final/SeriesCHC win series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Tampa Bay Rays went into Chicago Cubs and beat them, 5–4. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TB · top performer

TB
Nick Fortes

Nick Fortes

C

3.500OPS

2-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

CHC · top performer

CHC
Moises Ballesteros

Moises Ballesteros

DH

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Tampa Bay Rays at Chicago Cubs · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TB73-75
5
4
CHC84-64
TB73-75·CHC84-64
TB

TB

73-75

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. SimpsonC. Simpson★LF
2-44020010
SPRINT29.496
Y. DiazY. Diaz★DH
2-55120001
SPRINT25.716
B. LoweB. Lowe★2B
1-55111001
SPRINT27.148
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
2-55121100
SPRINT25.716
J. LoweJ. Lowe★LF
0-44000002
BB. Seymour★1B
1-22110001
R. PalaciosR. Palacios★2B
1-33011000
C. WilliamsC. Williams★SS
0-44000002
H. FeducciaH. Feduccia★C
1-22010001
J. MangumJ. MangumLF
1-22011000
T. GrayT. Gray3B
1-11010000
N. FortesN. FortesC
2-22121100
SPRINT26.225
Team14-39395145218
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. RasmussenD. Rasmussen★SP
5.0433351
G. JaxG. JaxRP
1.0000010
G. CleavingerG. CleavingerRP
1.0111011
B. BakerB. BakerRP
1.0100000
P. FairbanksP. FairbanksRP
1.0000220
Team9.0644592
CHC

CHC

84-64

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
1-55111101
SPRINT25.716
I. HappI. Happ★LF
0-33000021
C. KellyC. Kelly★C
1-44010001
SPRINT25.716
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
0-44000002
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
2-44120000
SPRINT28.278
M. BallesterosM. Ballesteros★DH
1-33211110
SPRINT24.53
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
1-33012011
SPRINT27.867
O. CaissieO. Caissie★RF
0-22000002
M. ShawM. Shaw★RF
0-44000001
W. CastroW. Castro2B
0-11000010
Team6-3333464259
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. ReaC. Rea★SP
5.1733050
D. PomeranzD. PomeranzRP
0.2100000
C. ThielbarC. ThielbarRP
1.0200010
P. HodgeP. HodgeRP
1.0211021
B. KellerB. KellerRP
1.0211101
Team9.01455182

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TB

  • D. Rasmussen
    80 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      40%·96.1 mph·36% whiff
    • FC
      39%·90.9 mph·41% whiff
    • SI
      18%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      1%·81.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      1%·84.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      1%·85.8 mph·— whiff
  • P. Fairbanks
    25 pitches·36% CSW
    • FC
      44%·90.0 mph·56% whiff
    • FF
      40%·97.1 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      16%·84.7 mph·100% whiff
  • G. Cleavinger
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • SL
      64%·87.9 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      27%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      9%·97.0 mph·— whiff
  • B. Baker
    11 pitches·18% CSW
    • CH
      36%·85.6 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      36%·97.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      27%·89.9 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Jax
    9 pitches·33% CSW
    • ST
      44%·88.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      33%·97.2 mph·67% whiff
    • FC
      11%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      11%·96.0 mph·— whiff

CHC

  • C. Rea
    85 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      36%·94.0 mph·19% whiff
    • FS
      16%·87.7 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      15%·84.3 mph·38% whiff
    • CU
      13%·80.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      7%·86.4 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      6%·88.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      6%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Hodge
    18 pitches·33% CSW
    • SL
      67%·86.8 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      33%·97.8 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Keller
    17 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      29%·96.7 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      24%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      18%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      18%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      12%·85.6 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Thielbar
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • CU
      43%·76.4 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      36%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      21%·90.3 mph·33% whiff
  • D. Pomeranz
    9 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      78%·93.2 mph·33% whiff
    • KC
      22%·85.3 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

14

Hits

6

5

Runs

4

0

Errors

0

Current series

CHC win series 2-1

Sep 12TBTB4@CHCCHC6
Sep 13TBTB5@CHCCHC4today
Sep 14TBTB3@CHCCHC4

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Sep 12TBTB4@CHCCHC6
Sep 13TBTB5@CHCCHC4today
Sep 14TBTB3@CHCCHC4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTB ↔ CHC

Biggest swing: 36pp · Top 9th Inning

TBTB
N. Fortes

N. Fortes

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 HR · 3.500 OPS

D. Rasmussen

D. Rasmussen

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 3 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

CHCCHC
M. Ballesteros

M. Ballesteros

DH

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

C. Rea

C. Rea

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 5 K · 3 ER · 7 H

How it ended

TB beat CHC 5-4. Fortes's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (36pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

CHC vs TB

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TBTop 8th Inning · 4-4
+23pp→ 45% WP

Caminero · homered to center (423 feet).

TBTop 9th Inning · 5-4
+36pp→ 84% WP

Fortes · homered to left center (421 feet).

CHCBottom 9th Inning · 5-4
+30pp→ 63% WP

Castro · walked, Swanson to third on wild pitch by Fairbanks.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TB0000120115
CHC0102001004

Period scoring

TB won 4 · CHC won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Ballesteros 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
2

Inn 4

Swanson 2

1
0

Inn 5

Palacios 1

2
0

Inn 6

Lowe 1

0
1

Inn 7

Busch 1

1
0

Inn 8

Caminero 1

1
0

Inn 9

Fortes 1

TB
CHC

Play-by-play · 574 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    TB 5·CHC 4

  2. B9

    · ·

    TB 5·CHC 4

  3. B9

    Happ struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TB 5·CHC 4

    −18pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 5·CHC 4

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TB 5·CHC 4

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 5·CHC 4

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 5·CHC 4

  8. B9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Ian Happ

    · ·

    TB 5·CHC 4

  9. B9

    · ·

    TB 5·CHC 4

  10. B9

    Busch struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TB 5·CHC 4

    −16pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 5·CHC 4

  12. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TB 5·CHC 4

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 5·CHC 4

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TB 5·CHC 4

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 5·CHC 4

  16. B9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Michael Busch

    · ·

    TB 5·CHC 4

  17. B9

    · ·

    TB 5·CHC 4

  18. B9

    Shaw grounded into fielder's choice to third, Castro to second, Swanson out at home.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TB 5·CHC 4

    −29pp

  19. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TB 5·CHC 4

  20. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TB 5·CHC 4

  21. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 5·CHC 4

  22. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TB 5·CHC 4

  23. B9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Matt Shaw

    · ·

    TB 5·CHC 4

  24. B9

    · ·

    TB 5·CHC 4

  25. B9

    Castro walked, Swanson to third on wild pitch by Fairbanks.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TB 5·CHC 4

    +30pp

  26. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 4

    · ·

    TB 5·CHC 4

  27. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    TB 5·CHC 4

  28. B9

    Swanson stole second.

    ·

    TB 5·CHC 4

  29. B9

    Swanson stole second.

    ·

    TB 5·CHC 4

  30. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TB 5·CHC 4

Team stats

TB

Away

Stat

CHC

Home

5

Runs

4

14

Hits

6

0

Errors

0

25

TB

14

2

HR

2

1

BB

5

8

K

9

17

LOB

12

Player projections

CHC vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low
  • Drew RasmussenTB
    5.1± 2.8low
  • Shane McClanahanTB
    5.0± 1.8low

Hits

  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.1± 0.6high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Ian HappCHC
    2.0± 2.6high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    2.0± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.9± 1.5high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    2.9± 4.0low
  • Colin ReaCHC
    2.7± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.3%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    60.4%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    58.9%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    59.1%

    P(CHC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.66 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Chandler SimpsonTB · LF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC · CF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Jake MangumPIT · LF
    SPRINT2993
  • Owen CaissieMIA · RF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278