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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2STL
STL

STL

58-58

5
3
LAD

LAD

66-49

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
44,621 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

STL 5 · LAD 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked LAD +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
STL0010010215
LAD0021000003

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 5, 25sim 97
    243
    19(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 10, 25sim 97
    303
    12(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 96
    15
    22(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 16, 25sim 95
    17
    18(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 1, 25sim 95
    14
    25(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 20, 25sim 95
    15
    30(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Aug 6·Final/SeriesSTL wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

St. Louis Cardinals went into Los Angeles Dodgers and beat them, 5–3.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

STL · top performer

STL
Pedro Pages

Pedro Pages

C

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

LAD · top performer

LAD
Shohei Ohtani

Shohei Ohtani

SP

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
STL58-58
5
3
LAD66-49
STL58-58·LAD66-49
STL

STL

58-58

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. DonovanB. Donovan★3B
2-55121000
SPRINT25.18
I. HerreraI. Herrera★DH
0-33100012
A. BurlesonA. Burleson★1B
2-55120002
SPRINT25.513
L. NootbaarL. Nootbaar★LF
1-55012002
M. WinnM. Winn★SS
2-44120011
SPRINT2872
N. GormanN. Gorman★3B
0-33000003
J. WalkerJ. Walker★RF
3-55131000
SPRINT28.891
P. PagesP. Pages★C
2-33020011
V. Scott IIV. Scott II★CF
0-33000002
Y. PozoY. PozoC
0-11000000
T. SaggeseT. SaggeseLF
0-11000001
Team12-383851240314
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. LiberatoreM. Liberatore★SP
4.0632111
K. LeahyK. LeahySP
2.2100040
J. RomeroJ. RomeroRP
1.0100010
R. O'BrienR. O'BrienRP
1.1000100
Team9.0832261
LAD

LAD

66-49

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
1-33112111
SPRINT2744
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
1-44010000
W. SmithW. Smith★C
0-44000002
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
3-44030000
SPRINT24.74
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
0-44000001
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
1-44110001
SPRINT28.175
M. RojasM. Rojas★SS
0-33000001
A. CallA. Call★LF
2-33120000
SPRINT27.765
A. FreelandA. Freeland★2B
0-44000000
M. ConfortoM. ConfortoRF
0-11000000
Team8-3434382126
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
4.0211080
SPRINT2744
J. WrobleskiJ. Wrobleski★SP
3.0511140
A. VesiaA. VesiaRP
1.0321110
B. StewartB. StewartRP
1.0211110
Team9.012543140

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

STL

  • M. Liberatore
    72 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      40%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      28%·85.6 mph·22% whiff
    • CU
      10%·76.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·87.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      7%·89.8 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      7%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Leahy
    31 pitches·42% CSW
    • FF
      29%·96.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      19%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      19%·86.9 mph·80% whiff
    • CU
      16%·84.7 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      10%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      6%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
  • R. O'Brien
    20 pitches·15% CSW
    • SI
      80%·98.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      15%·90.8 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      5%·83.0 mph·— whiff
  • J. Romero
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • ST
      47%·83.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      40%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      13%·87.6 mph·0% whiff

LAD

  • J. Wrobleski
    59 pitches·25% CSW
    • SL
      31%·87.8 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      27%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      22%·95.5 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      8%·81.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      8%·90.9 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      3%·84.6 mph·— whiff
  • S. Ohtani
    54 pitches·39% CSW
    • FF
      59%·98.8 mph·35% whiff
    • SL
      15%·88.0 mph·75% whiff
    • ST
      15%·84.7 mph·40% whiff
    • CU
      6%·78.0 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      2%·91.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      2%·91.7 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      2%·96.6 mph·— whiff
  • A. Vesia
    30 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      60%·92.9 mph·9% whiff
    • SL
      23%·86.0 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      17%·83.7 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Stewart
    18 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      44%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      39%·85.5 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      17%·97.1 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

8

5

Runs

3

2

Errors

1

Current series

STL wins series 2-1

Aug 5STLSTL3@LADLAD2
Aug 6STLSTL6@LADLAD12
Aug 6STLSTL5@LADLAD3today

Season series

STL wins series 4-2

Jun 7LADLAD0@STLSTL5
Jun 7LADLAD1@STLSTL2
Jun 8LADLAD7@STLSTL3
Aug 5STLSTL3@LADLAD2
Aug 6STLSTL6@LADLAD12
Aug 6STLSTL5@LADLAD3today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSTL ↔ LAD

Biggest swing: 47pp · Top 8th Inning

STLSTL
P. Pages

P. Pages

C

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.417 OPS

K. Leahy

K. Leahy

SP

Top reliever

2.2 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 1 H

LADLAD
S. Ohtani

S. Ohtani

SP

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

S. Ohtani

S. Ohtani

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 8 K · 1 ER · 2 H

How it ended

STL beat LAD 5-3. Walker's play in the top 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (47pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

LAD vs STL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LADBottom 3rd Inning · 1-2
+19pp→ 70% WP

Ohtani · homered to center (421 feet), Call scored.

STLTop 8th Inning · 4-3
+47pp→ 66% WP

Walker · singled to center, Burleson scored on error and Winn scored on throwing error by third baseman Freeland, Walker to second.

STLTop 9th Inning · 4-3
+11pp→ 86% WP

Donovan · singled to right.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
STL0010010215
LAD0021000003

Period scoring

STL won 3 · LAD won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
2

Inn 3

Donovan 1

Ohtani 2

0
1

Inn 4

Rojas 1

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Nootbaar 1

0
0

Inn 7

2
0

Inn 8

Walker 2

1
0

Inn 9

Nootbaar 1

STL
LAD

Play-by-play · 596 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    STL 5·LAD 3

  2. B9

    · ·

    STL 5·LAD 3

  3. B9

    Freeland grounded out to second.

    · ·

    STL 5·LAD 3

    −4pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    STL 5·LAD 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    STL 5·LAD 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    STL 5·LAD 3

  7. B9

    Muncy to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    STL 5·LAD 3

  8. B9

    Muncy to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    STL 5·LAD 3

  9. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    STL 5·LAD 3

  10. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    STL 5·LAD 3

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    STL 5·LAD 3

  12. B9

    Riley O'Brien pitches to Alex Freeland

    · ·

    STL 5·LAD 3

  13. B9

    ·

    STL 5·LAD 3

  14. B9

    Muncy walked.

    ·

    STL 5·LAD 3

    +3pp

  15. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    ·

    STL 5·LAD 3

  16. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    STL 5·LAD 3

  17. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    STL 5·LAD 3

  18. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    STL 5·LAD 3

  19. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    STL 5·LAD 3

  20. B9

    Riley O'Brien pitches to Max Muncy

    ·

    STL 5·LAD 3

  21. B9

    Muncy hit for Call

    ·

    STL 5·LAD 3

  22. B9

    ·

    STL 5·LAD 3

  23. B9

    Conforto grounded out to second.

    ·

    STL 5·LAD 3

    −3pp

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    STL 5·LAD 3

  25. B9

    Riley O'Brien pitches to Michael Conforto

    ·

    STL 5·LAD 3

  26. B9

    Conforto hit for Rojas

    ·

    STL 5·LAD 3

  27. B9

    ·

    STL 5·LAD 3

  28. B9

    Pages flied out to center.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    STL 5·LAD 3

    −5pp

  29. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    STL 5·LAD 3

  30. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    STL 5·LAD 3

Team stats

STL

Away

Stat

LAD

Home

5

Runs

3

12

Hits

8

2

Errors

1

14

TB

13

0

HR

1

3

BB

2

14

K

6

27

LOB

14

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 14 players in cohort
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Masyn WinnSTL · SS
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

LAD vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

118

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.9± 3.5low
  • Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
    5.9± 3.0low

Hits

  • Bryan TorresSTL
    1.2± 1.1low
  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.1± 1.3high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.3± 2.6high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.2± 3.0high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    2.2± 2.6low

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Roki SasakiLAD
    2.8± 2.1low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    2.8± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.2%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    61.1%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    62.7%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    61.2%

    P(LAD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.73 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.