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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+6ATL
MIA

MIA

57-59

1
7
ATL

ATL

49-67

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
35,664 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

MIA 1 · ATL 7 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIA +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIA0000010001
ATL021000407

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 61-39
62%Last 30 · 322-200
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 8, 25sim 96
    285
    15(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 23, 25sim 95
    61
    23(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 29, 25sim 95
    226
    4(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 10, 25sim 95
    54
    4(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 10, 25sim 94
    281
    15(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 25, 25sim 94
    70
    4(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sat, Aug 9·Final/SeriesATL wins series 5-2

Recap · MLB

Atlanta Braves held off Miami Marlins, 7–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIA · top performer

MIA
Troy Johnston

Troy Johnston

RF

0.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

ATL · top performer

ATL
Michael Harris II

Michael Harris II

CF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

MLB · Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIA57-59
1
7
ATL49-67
MIA57-59·ATL49-67
MIA

MIA

57-59

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
1-44011001
SPRINT2872
K. StowersK. Stowers★LF
0-44000001
A. RamirezA. Ramirez★C
0-44000000
L. HicksL. Hicks★C
1-44010001
SPRINT25.614
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
1-44010002
SPRINT27.765
D. MyersD. Myers★CF
0-33000001
T. JohnstonT. Johnston★RF
1-33010001
SPRINT26.326
J. SanojaJ. Sanoja★3B
1-33110000
SPRINT28.381
G. PauleyG. Pauley★3B
0-11000010
O. LopezO. LopezSS
0-11000000
Team5-3131151017
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. GustoR. Gusto★SP
6.0433280
G. SorianoG. SorianoRP
1.0344111
T. ZuberT. ZuberRP
1.0000020
Team8.07773111
ATL

ATL

49-67

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. ProfarJ. Profar★LF
0-22100022
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
2-33120010
SPRINT25.513
D. BaldwinD. Baldwin★C
2-44122001
SPRINT26.632
S. MurphyS. Murphy★C
0-33100001
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
2-44223100
SPRINT27.148
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
0-44001002
E. WhiteE. White★CF
0-33001000
N. Alvarez Jr.N. Alvarez Jr.★SS
0-44000004
N. AllenN. Allen★SS
1-44110001
SPRINT2744
Team7-31317771311
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
H. WaldrepH. Waldrep★SP
6.0411160
P. JohnsonP. JohnsonRP
1.0100000
D. LeeD. LeeRP
1.0000000
T. KinleyT. KinleyRP
1.0000010
Team9.0511170

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIA

  • R. Gusto
    98 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      27%·94.9 mph·38% whiff
    • FC
      22%·90.0 mph·18% whiff
    • CU
      21%·81.2 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      13%·93.1 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      9%·87.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      7%·83.5 mph·17% whiff
  • G. Soriano
    34 pitches·26% CSW
    • CH
      35%·86.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      32%·86.5 mph·38% whiff
    • FF
      21%·96.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      6%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      6%·86.0 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Zuber
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • ST
      42%·82.1 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      25%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      8%·94.5 mph·0% whiff

ATL

  • H. Waldrep
    89 pitches·35% CSW
    • FS
      31%·86.7 mph·31% whiff
    • FC
      25%·93.2 mph·10% whiff
    • SI
      20%·95.7 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      16%·81.8 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      8%·87.6 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Kinley
    18 pitches·28% CSW
    • SL
      94%·86.9 mph·43% whiff
    • FF
      6%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Johnson
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • CU
      73%·85.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      27%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Lee
    8 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      50%·93.0 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      38%·86.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      13%·87.0 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

7

1

Runs

7

1

Errors

1

Current series

ATL wins series 5-2

Apr 4MIAMIA0@ATLATL10
Apr 5MIAMIA4@ATLATL0
Apr 6MIAMIA0@ATLATL0
Aug 7MIAMIA6@ATLATL8
Aug 8MIAMIA5@ATLATL1
Aug 9MIAMIA1@ATLATL7today
Aug 9MIAMIA6@ATLATL8
Aug 10MIAMIA1@ATLATL7

Season series

Series tied 4-4

Apr 4MIAMIA0@ATLATL10
Apr 5MIAMIA4@ATLATL0
Apr 6MIAMIA0@ATLATL0
Jun 20ATLATL2@MIAMIA6
Jun 21ATLATL7@MIAMIA0
Jun 22ATLATL3@MIAMIA5
Aug 7MIAMIA6@ATLATL8
Aug 8MIAMIA5@ATLATL1
Aug 9MIAMIA1@ATLATL7today
Aug 9MIAMIA6@ATLATL8
Aug 10MIAMIA1@ATLATL7
Aug 25ATLATL1@MIAMIA2
Aug 26ATLATL11@MIAMIA2
Aug 27ATLATL12@MIAMIA1

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIA ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 15pp · Top 7th Inning

MIAMIA
T. Johnston

T. Johnston

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.667 OPS

R. Gusto

R. Gusto

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 8 K · 3 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

ATLATL
M. Harris II

M. Harris II

CF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

H. Waldrep

H. Waldrep

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

ATL beat MIA 7-1.

Win probability

ATL vs MIA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATLBottom 2nd Inning · 0-0
+10pp→ 68% WP

Harris II · doubled to right, Murphy to third.

ATLBottom 3rd Inning · 0-2
+14pp→ 79% WP

Allen · singled to right.

ATLTop 7th Inning · 1-3
+15pp→ 87% WP

Myers · grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Marsee out at second, Hicks to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIA0000010001
ATL02100040—7

Period scoring

MIA won 1 · ATL won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
2

Inn 2

Albies 1

0
1

Inn 3

Baldwin 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Edwards 1

0
4

Inn 7

II 3

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

MIA
ATL

Play-by-play · 520 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    MIA 1·ATL 7

  2. T9

    Marsee struck out swinging.

    · ·

    MIA 1·ATL 7

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    MIA 1·ATL 7

  4. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    MIA 1·ATL 7

  5. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIA 1·ATL 7

  6. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIA 1·ATL 7

  7. T9

    Hicks to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    MIA 1·ATL 7

  8. T9

    Hicks to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    MIA 1·ATL 7

  9. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIA 1·ATL 7

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 1·ATL 7

  11. T9

    Tyler Kinley pitches to Jakob Marsee

    · ·

    MIA 1·ATL 7

  12. T9

    ·

    MIA 1·ATL 7

  13. T9

    Hicks grounded into fielder's choice to second, Ramírez out at second.

    · ·

    MIA 1·ATL 7

  14. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIA 1·ATL 7

  15. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIA 1·ATL 7

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIA 1·ATL 7

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 1·ATL 7

  18. T9

    Tyler Kinley pitches to Liam Hicks

    · ·

    MIA 1·ATL 7

  19. T9

    ·

    MIA 1·ATL 7

  20. T9

    Ramírez safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Alvarez Jr..

    · ·

    MIA 1·ATL 7

  21. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIA 1·ATL 7

  22. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIA 1·ATL 7

  23. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    MIA 1·ATL 7

  24. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    MIA 1·ATL 7

  25. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIA 1·ATL 7

  26. T9

    Tyler Kinley pitches to Agustin Ramirez

    ·

    MIA 1·ATL 7

  27. T9

    ·

    MIA 1·ATL 7

  28. T9

    Stowers lined out to right.

    ·

    MIA 1·ATL 7

  29. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIA 1·ATL 7

  30. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    MIA 1·ATL 7

Team stats

MIA

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

1

Runs

7

5

Hits

7

1

Errors

1

6

TB

11

0

HR

1

1

BB

3

7

K

11

11

LOB

16

Player projections

ATL vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.4± 2.8low
  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.2± 2.2low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.5± 1.3high
  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.2± 1.4high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.8± 3.1high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.9± 1.6high
  • Kyle StowersMIA
    1.8± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.0± 1.4high
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Janson JunkMIA
    3.0± 3.8low
  • Grant HolmesATL
    2.2± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.4%

ensemble · MIA favored

  • Elo Static

    43.6%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    46.9%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    44.1%

    P(ATL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.45 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 13 players in cohort
  • Eli WhiteATL · CF
    SPRINT30.499+
  • Javier SanojaMIA · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA · 2B
    SPRINT2872