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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5PIT
DET

DET

60-43

1
6
PIT

PIT

42-61

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
17,248 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

DET 1 · PIT 6 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked DET +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
DET0000001001
PIT141000006

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 61-39
62%Last 30 · 322-200
Receipts →
MLB·Wed, Jul 23·Final/SeriesPIT wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Pittsburgh Pirates held off Detroit Tigers, 6–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DET · top performer

DET
Colt Keith

Colt Keith

3B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

PIT · top performer

PIT
Oneil Cruz

Oneil Cruz

CF

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Detroit Tigers at Pittsburgh Pirates · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
DET60-43
1
6
PIT42-61
DET60-43·PIT42-61
DET

DET

60-43

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. TorresG. Torres★2B
0-44000000
J. JonesJ. Jones★DH
0-33000001
W. PerezW. Perez★RF
1-44010003
SPRINT27.969
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
1-44110002
SPRINT26.123
M. VierlingM. Vierling★CF
1-44011002
SPRINT28.483
Z. McKinstryZ. McKinstry★2B
1-33010000
SPRINT26.941
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
0-33000002
J. BaezJ. Baez★SS
0-33000000
P. MeadowsP. Meadows★CF
0-33000001
C. KeithC. Keith3B
1-11010000
SPRINT28.381
Team5-32321510011
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. MeltonT. Melton★SP
5.0766272
C. LeeC. LeeRP
2.0000030
C. HernandezC. HernandezRP
1.0100010
Team8.08662112
PIT

PIT

42-61

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz★1B
1-44114101
SPRINT24.85
A. McCutchenA. McCutchen★DH
1-44111102
SPRINT27.662
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
2-44120000
SPRINT27.969
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
0-44000002
O. CruzO. Cruz★CF
2-33121000
SPRINT28.483
T. PhamT. Pham★LF
1-33010011
K. HayesK. Hayes★3B
1-44110001
SPRINT26.941
J. BartJ. Bart★C
0-22100011
I. Kiner-FalefaI. Kiner-Falefa★2B
0-33000003
Team8-31316862211
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. FalterB. Falter★RP
7.0411080
C. MlodzinskiC. MlodzinskiSP
2.0100030
Team9.05110110

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

DET

  • T. Melton
    90 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      29%·97.0 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      27%·84.5 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      21%·95.7 mph·11% whiff
    • CU
      11%·79.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      9%·87.9 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      3%·90.7 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Lee
    28 pitches·36% CSW
    • SI
      32%·89.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      32%·79.9 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      18%·86.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      18%·89.5 mph·50% whiff
  • C. Hernandez
    16 pitches·38% CSW
    • FS
      44%·87.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      38%·83.8 mph·60% whiff
    • FF
      19%·97.4 mph·0% whiff

PIT

  • B. Falter
    87 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      36%·93.0 mph·6% whiff
    • SI
      29%·93.7 mph·27% whiff
    • CU
      17%·79.2 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      14%·85.4 mph·14% whiff
    • FS
      5%·85.0 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Mlodzinski
    34 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      32%·96.6 mph·13% whiff
    • FS
      21%·87.7 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      21%·96.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      15%·89.8 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      6%·84.7 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      6%·85.7 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

8

1

Runs

6

0

Errors

0

Current series

PIT wins series 3-0

Jul 21DETDET0@PITPIT3
Jul 22DETDET5@PITPIT8
Jul 23DETDET1@PITPIT6today

Season series

PIT wins series 4-2

Jun 17PITPIT3@DETDET7
Jun 18PITPIT0@DETDET0
Jun 19PITPIT2@DETDET9
Jun 19PITPIT8@DETDET4
Jul 21DETDET0@PITPIT3
Jul 22DETDET5@PITPIT8
Jul 23DETDET1@PITPIT6today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowDET ↔ PIT

Biggest swing: 22pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

DETDET
C. Keith

C. Keith

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

T. Melton

T. Melton

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 7 K · 6 ER · 7 H · 2 BB

PITPIT
O. Cruz

O. Cruz

CF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.333 OPS

B. Falter

B. Falter

RP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 8 K · 1 ER · 4 H

How it ended

PIT beat DET 6-1. Horwitz's play in the bottom 2nd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (22pp).

Win probability

PIT vs DET

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PITBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+10pp→ 66% WP

McCutchen · homered to center (411 feet).

PITBottom 2nd Inning · 0-5
+22pp→ 92% WP

Horwitz · homered to center (416 feet), Cruz scored, Hayes scored and Bart scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
DET0000001001
PIT14100000—6

Period scoring

DET won 1 · PIT won 3

0
1

Inn 1

McCutchen 1

0
4

Inn 2

Horwitz 4

0
1

Inn 3

Cruz 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Vierling 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

DET
PIT

Play-by-play · 494 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    DET 1·PIT 6

  2. T9

    Vierling struck out swinging.

    · ·

    DET 1·PIT 6

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    DET 1·PIT 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    DET 1·PIT 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    DET 1·PIT 6

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    DET 1·PIT 6

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    DET 1·PIT 6

  8. T9

    Carmen Mlodzinski pitches to Matt Vierling

    · ·

    DET 1·PIT 6

  9. T9

    · ·

    DET 1·PIT 6

  10. T9

    Torkelson struck out swinging.

    · ·

    DET 1·PIT 6

  11. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    DET 1·PIT 6

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    DET 1·PIT 6

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    DET 1·PIT 6

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    DET 1·PIT 6

  15. T9

    Carmen Mlodzinski pitches to Spencer Torkelson

    · ·

    DET 1·PIT 6

  16. T9

    · ·

    DET 1·PIT 6

  17. T9

    Pérez struck out swinging.

    · ·

    DET 1·PIT 6

    +0.9pp

  18. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    DET 1·PIT 6

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    DET 1·PIT 6

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    DET 1·PIT 6

  21. T9

    Carmen Mlodzinski pitches to Wenceel Perez

    · ·

    DET 1·PIT 6

  22. T9

    ·

    DET 1·PIT 6

  23. T9

    Keith singled to right.

    ·

    DET 1·PIT 6

    −0.9pp

  24. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    DET 1·PIT 6

  25. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    DET 1·PIT 6

  26. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    DET 1·PIT 6

  27. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    DET 1·PIT 6

  28. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    DET 1·PIT 6

  29. T9

    Carmen Mlodzinski pitches to Colt Keith

    ·

    DET 1·PIT 6

  30. T9

    Keith hit for Jones

    ·

    DET 1·PIT 6

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

1

Runs

6

5

Hits

8

0

Errors

0

6

TB

15

0

HR

2

0

BB

2

11

K

11

8

LOB

13

Player projections

PIT vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low

Hits

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Konnor GriffinPIT
    1.1± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    2.0± 1.7high
  • Spencer HorwitzPIT
    1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low
  • Framber ValdezDET
    2.7± 3.6low
  • Bubba ChandlerPIT
    2.7± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.4%

ensemble · DET favored

  • Elo Static

    44.9%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    42.9%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    46.0%

    P(PIT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.28 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 30, 25sim 96
    121
    11(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 8, 25sim 96
    285
    15(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 20, 25sim 95
    104
    15(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 95
    281
    15(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 10, 25sim 94
    281
    15(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 5, 25sim 94
    252
    29(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Nick GonzalesPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Matt VierlingDET · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Oneil CruzPIT · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Jahmai JonesDET · DH
    SPRINT28.278