MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4MIA

MIA

57-58

ATL

48-67

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia

32,717 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

42.4%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
44.8%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
42.6%
P(ATL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
44.4%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.95 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ATL vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 94 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.4± 2.1low
Max MeyerMIA
6.6± 1.8medium
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
4.8± 1.7medium

Hits

Otto LopezMIA
1.5± 0.8high
Liam HicksMIA
1.2± 0.8high
Drake BaldwinATL
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Drake BaldwinATL
2.2± 2.0high
Matt OlsonATL
2.1± 2.4high
Otto LopezMIA
2.1± 1.6high

RBIs

Drake BaldwinATL
0.8± 0.8high
Mauricio DubonATL
0.7± 1.2high
Joe MackMIA
0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.3± 3.0medium
Bryce ElderATL
2.4± 2.1medium
Grant HolmesATL
2.4± 1.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIA

league avg

ATL

.701

OPS

.717

▶

.744

.321

OBP

.319

.320

4.22

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.06

4.17

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.29

1.26

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.18

8.8

K / 9

8.5

8.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

MIA 5 · ATL 1 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIA +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIA	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	0	0	5
ATL	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
X. Edwards2B	.303	5	0	3	1	0	0	0
K. StowersLF	.293	4	1	1	0	0	1	2
A. RamirezC	.240	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
H. HernandezLF	.311	4	2	2	2	1	0	1
O. LopezSS	.245	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. MarseeCF	.435	3	1	1	1	0	0	0
T. JohnstonRF	.167	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
D. MyersCF	.241	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
G. Pauley3B	.219	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Sanoja3B	.244	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. Wagaman1B	.233	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. HillRF	.215	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		36	5	9	5	1	2	7

Player

.303

.293

.240

.311

.245

.435

.167

.241

.219

.244

.233

.215

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CabreraSP	8.0	2	1	1	1	11	109
C. FaucherRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	17
Team	9.0	2	1	1	2	11	126

Player

E. CabreraSP

8.0

109

C. FaucherRP

1.0

Team

9.0

126

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ProfarLF	.234	3	1	1	1	1	1	1
M. Olson1B	.257	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
D. BaldwinC	.284	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. OzunaDH	.233	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Harris IICF	.234	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
O. Albies2B	.224	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. WhiteCF	.245	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
N. Alvarez Jr.SS	.209	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. AllenSS	.225	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. MurphyC	.220	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. OrnelasSS	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		29	1	2	1	1	2	11

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. ElderSP	6.0	7	5	5	2	3	100
D. DoddRP	3.0	2	0	0	0	4	38
Team	9.0	9	5	5	2	7	138

Team

MIA

ATL

3 sub-models, blended.

ATL vs MIA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ATL vs MIA.

3 sub-models, blended.