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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+10DET
ARI

ARI

51-57

2
12
DET

DET

63-46

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan
27,697 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

ARI 2 · DET 12 (by 10)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked DET +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ARI1100000002
DET0002630112

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 12, 25sim 97
    296
    13(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 97
    99
    6(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 10, 25sim 96
    35
    6(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 95
    37
    6(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 2, 25sim 94
    266
    21(H)12
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 94
    2612
    21(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, Jul 29·Final/SeriesDET wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Detroit Tigers held off Arizona Diamondbacks, 12–2. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ARI · top performer

ARI
Corbin Carroll

Corbin Carroll

RF

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

DET · top performer

DET
Andy Ibanez

Andy Ibanez

2B

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Arizona Diamondbacks at Detroit Tigers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ARI51-57
2
12
DET63-46
ARI51-57·DET63-46
ARI

ARI

51-57

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
2-44120001
SPRINT29.496
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
2-44021001
SPRINT26.225
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
0-22001010
SPRINT26.838
AA. Del Castillo★DH
0-44000001
T. EnglishT. English★OF
0-33000011
J. McCarthyJ. McCarthy★LF
1-44010001
SPRINT29.698
A. ThomasA. Thomas★CF
0-33000011
J. McCannJ. McCann★C
0-33100012
SPRINT25.29
B. AlexanderB. Alexander★3B
0-44000002
Team5-31312520410
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. PfaadtB. Pfaadt★RP
4.21177033
B. GarciaB. GarciaRP
0.1433000
J. WoodfordJ. WoodfordRP
1.0111010
J. CurtissJ. CurtissRP
1.0100000
J. HerreraJ. HerreraC
1.0211000
Team8.0191212043
DET

DET

63-46

12
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. KeithC. Keith★3B
0-33000001
G. TorresG. Torres★2B
2-55121101
SPRINT25.18
K. CarpenterK. Carpenter★RF
3-55230000
SPRINT26.735
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
3-55333100
SPRINT2744
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
2-55020000
W. PerezW. Perez★RF
3-55431000
SPRINT27.969
Z. McKinstryZ. McKinstry★2B
2-55124101
SPRINT26.941
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
2-55122001
M. VierlingM. Vierling★CF
0-33000000
A. IbanezA. Ibanez2B
2-22021000
Team19-4343121912304
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. MizeC. Mize★SP
1.2321320
B. HurterB. HurterRP
3.1100030
C. LeeC. LeeRP
1.0100110
T. HoltonT. HoltonRP
1.0000020
L. JacksonL. JacksonRP
2.0000020
Team9.05214100

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ARI

  • B. Pfaadt
    90 pitches·26% CSW
    • SI
      31%·92.6 mph·9% whiff
    • FC
      24%·90.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      20%·85.2 mph·44% whiff
    • FF
      9%·93.8 mph·60% whiff
    • CH
      8%·86.4 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      8%·81.0 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Garcia
    18 pitches·39% CSW
    • SI
      50%·96.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      39%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      11%·88.7 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Herrera
    15 pitches·13% CSW
    • EP
      100%·44.7 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Woodford
    14 pitches·7% CSW
    • CH
      29%·86.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      21%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      21%·81.2 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      14%·89.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      14%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Curtiss
    14 pitches·14% CSW
    • FF
      57%·93.9 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      29%·85.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      14%·91.4 mph·0% whiff

DET

  • C. Mize
    59 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      46%·95.8 mph·22% whiff
    • FS
      20%·89.2 mph·29% whiff
    • SL
      15%·89.5 mph·50% whiff
    • SV
      10%·85.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      8%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Hurter
    37 pitches·35% CSW
    • SI
      54%·92.4 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      35%·82.2 mph·29% whiff
    • FF
      8%·91.7 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      3%·86.3 mph·— whiff
  • C. Lee
    23 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      35%·89.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      26%·88.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      26%·80.2 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      13%·85.7 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Jackson
    22 pitches·36% CSW
    • SL
      59%·85.8 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      32%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      9%·89.7 mph·50% whiff
  • T. Holton
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      27%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      27%·92.5 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      13%·84.7 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      13%·88.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      13%·80.8 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      7%·80.8 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

19

2

Runs

12

0

Errors

1

Current series

DET wins series 3-0

Jul 28ARIARI1@DETDET5
Jul 29ARIARI2@DETDET12today
Jul 30ARIARI2@DETDET7

Season series

DET leads series 2-0

Jul 28ARIARI1@DETDET5
Jul 29ARIARI2@DETDET12today
Jul 30ARIARI2@DETDET7

Headlines · top performers

Game flowARI ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 24pp · Bottom 4th Inning

ARIARI
C. Carroll

C. Carroll

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.000 OPS

B. Pfaadt

B. Pfaadt

RP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 3 K · 7 ER · 11 H

DETDET
A. Ibanez

A. Ibanez

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 2.000 OPS

B. Hurter

B. Hurter

RP

Top reliever

3.1 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 1 H

How it ended

DET beat ARI 12-2. Dingler's play in the bottom 4th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (24pp).

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
DETBottom 4th Inning · 2-2
+24pp→ 59% WP

Dingler · singled to center, Greene scored and Pérez scored.

DETTop 5th Inning · 2-2
+8pp→ 62% WP

Del Castillo · fouled out to first.

DETBottom 5th Inning · 2-5
+14pp→ 90% WP

Greene · homered to right center (420 feet), Carpenter scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ARI1100000002
DET00026301—12

Team stats

ARI

Away

Stat

DET

Home

2

Runs

12

5

Hits

19

0

Errors

1

8

TB

37

0

HR

3

4

BB

0

10

K

4

18

LOB

16

Win probability

DET vs ARI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

ARI won 2 · DET won 4

1
0

Inn 1

Marte 1

1
0

Inn 2

Perdomo 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
2

Inn 4

Dingler 2

0
6

Inn 5

Greene 2

0
3

Inn 6

Greene 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

McKinstry 1

0

Inn 9

ARI
DET

Play-by-play · 600 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    ARI 2·DET 12

  2. T9

    Alexander struck out swinging.

    ·

    ARI 2·DET 12

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    ARI 2·DET 12

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    ARI 2·DET 12

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    ARI 2·DET 12

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    ARI 2·DET 12

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 2·DET 12

  8. T9

    Luke Jackson pitches to Blaze Alexander

    ·

    ARI 2·DET 12

  9. T9

    ·

    ARI 2·DET 12

  10. T9

    McCann struck out swinging.

    ·

    ARI 2·DET 12

  11. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    ARI 2·DET 12

  12. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ARI 2·DET 12

  13. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    ARI 2·DET 12

  14. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ARI 2·DET 12

  15. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    ARI 2·DET 12

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    ARI 2·DET 12

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 2·DET 12

  18. T9

    Luke Jackson pitches to James McCann

    ·

    ARI 2·DET 12

  19. T9

    ·

    ARI 2·DET 12

  20. T9

    Thomas lined out to center.

    ·

    ARI 2·DET 12

  21. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 2·DET 12

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ARI 2·DET 12

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    ARI 2·DET 12

  24. T9

    Luke Jackson pitches to Alek Thomas

    ·

    ARI 2·DET 12

  25. T9

    Vierling at third base.

    ARI 2·DET 12

  26. T9

    Pérez in center field.

    ARI 2·DET 12

  27. T9

    Jones in right field.

    ARI 2·DET 12

  28. T9

    Ibáñez at second base.

    ARI 2·DET 12

  29. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    ARI 2·DET 12

  30. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    ARI 2·DET 12

Player projections

DET vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low
  • Michael SorokaARI
    5.2± 3.5low
  • Ryne NelsonARI
    4.5± 3.0low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.6± 1.3high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    1.2± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    3.0± 2.2high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.2± 2.3high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    1.9± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.1± 1.4high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Geraldo PerdomoARI
    0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.5± 3.5low
  • Zac GallenARI
    2.9± 2.5low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.8%

ensemble · DET favored

  • Elo Static

    58.6%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    60.2%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    56.6%

    P(DET win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.48 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Jake McCarthyCOL · LF
    SPRINT29.698
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Jahmai JonesDET · DH
    SPRINT28.278