HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 9
  • MLBEnd 2
    COL 0@ATH 0
    -12.8pphigh
  • MLBTop 2
    CHC 0@SF 0
    -12.4pphigh
  • MLBTop 7
    STL 3@MIN 4
    +41.4ppmedium
  • MLBTop 9
    ARI 5@CIN 2
    -51.8pplow
  • MLBBot 6
    ATL 3@NYM 7
    +58.9pplow
  • MLBTop 8
    HOU 9@KC 5
    -49.3pplow
  • MLBMid 4
    TB 0@LAA 4
    +62.6pplow
  • MLBTop 6
    SEA 8@WSH 1
    -47.4pplow
  • WNBA8:05 - 2nd
    GS 26@SEA 25
    +3.4pphigh
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5LAD
LAD

LAD

64-46

5
0
TB

TB

54-57

George M. Steinbrenner Field · Tampa, Florida
10,046 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

LAD

LAD

league avg

TB

TB

.784

OPS

◀

.715

.719

.345

OBP

◀

.319

.335

5.36

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.50

3.36

Team ERA

◀

4.17

3.95

1.10

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.23

9.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

LAD 5 · TB 0 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAD +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAD2002100005
TB0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

68%Last 7 · 67-32
62%Last 30 · 305-190
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Aug 1·Final/SeriesLAD win series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers went into Tampa Bay Rays and beat them, 5–0.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1S. BazTB−29.9pp
  2. 2S. OhtaniLAD+16.8pp
  3. 3C. KershawLAD+13.3pp

LAD · top performer

LAD
Freddie Freeman

Freddie Freeman

1B

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

TB · top performer

TB
Christopher Morel

Christopher Morel

1B

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Dodgers at Tampa Bay Rays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
M. BettsSS
.2374001001
S. OhtaniDH
.2714120012
W. SmithC
.3253110012
F. Freeman1B
.2994123102
T. HernándezLF
.2514000002
A. PagesCF
.2784000001
M. ConfortoDH
.1973110001
T. Edman2B
.2264110002
A. Freeland2B
.5004021002
- A. CallLF
.0001000000
Team355951215

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
C. KershawSP
6.05000388
J. WrobleskiSP
3.01000540
Team9.060008128

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
Y. DiazDH
.2814000000
H. KimSS
.2294010001
B. Lowe2B
.2754010001
J. Caminero3B
.2504000001
C. Morel1B
.2124020002
J. DeLucaRF
.4004020000
J. LoweLF
.2364000001
J. MangumLF
.2823000001
N. FortesC
.0003000001
Team34060008

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
S. BazSP
5.08552898
I. SeymourRP
2.01000431
G. CleavingerRP
1.00000111
M. MontgomeryRP
1.00000215
Team9.0955215155

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAD

  • C. Kershaw
    88 pitches·26% CSW
    • SL
      36%·85.5 mph·10% whiff
    • FF
      33%·88.6 mph·11% whiff
    • CU
      25%·72.6 mph·31% whiff
    • FS
      6%·82.9 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Wrobleski
    40 pitches·40% CSW
    • SI
      38%·94.3 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      25%·91.3 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      23%·95.8 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      10%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      3%·89.9 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      3%·81.6 mph·0% whiff

TB

  • S. Baz
    98 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      40%·97.3 mph·30% whiff
    • FC
      35%·91.9 mph·38% whiff
    • KC
      19%·85.9 mph·22% whiff
    • CH
      6%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
  • I. Seymour
    31 pitches·42% CSW
    • CH
      35%·84.4 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      29%·92.6 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      23%·87.6 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      6%·82.4 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      6%·81.6 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Montgomery
    15 pitches·53% CSW
    • FF
      67%·99.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      33%·90.3 mph·100% whiff
  • G. Cleavinger
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • SL
      45%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      36%·95.7 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      18%·96.4 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

6

5

Runs

0

1

Errors

0

Current series

LAD win series 2-1

Aug 1LADLAD5@TBTB0today
Aug 2LADLAD0@TBTB4
Aug 3LADLAD3@TBTB0

Season series

LAD lead series 1-0

Aug 1LADLAD5@TBTB0today
Aug 2LADLAD0@TBTB4
Aug 3LADLAD3@TBTB0

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAD ↔ TB

Biggest swing: 11pp · Top 1st Inning

LADLAD
F. Freeman

F. Freeman

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

C. Kershaw

C. Kershaw

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 5 H

TBTB
C. Morel

C. Morel

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

S. Baz

S. Baz

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 8 K · 5 ER · 8 H · 2 BB

How it ended

LAD beat TB 5-0.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

TB vs LAD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LADTop 1st Inning · 2-0
+11pp→ 76% WP

Freeman · doubled to right, Ohtani scored and Smith scored.

LADTop 4th Inning · 3-0
+7pp→ 88% WP

Freeland · singled to center, Conforto scored, Edman to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAD2002100005
TB0000000000

Period scoring

LAD won 3 · TB won 0

2
0

Inn 1

Freeman 2

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

2
0

Inn 4

Freeland 1

1
0

Inn 5

Freeman 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

LAD
TB

Play-by-play · 547 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    LAD 5·TB 0

  2. B9

    · ·

    LAD 5·TB 0

  3. B9

    J. Lowe lined out to left.

    · ·

    LAD 5·TB 0

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 5·TB 0

  5. B9

    DeLuca to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    LAD 5·TB 0

  6. B9

    DeLuca to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    LAD 5·TB 0

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAD 5·TB 0

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    LAD 5·TB 0

  9. B9

    Justin Wrobleski pitches to Josh Lowe

    · ·

    LAD 5·TB 0

  10. B9

    ·

    LAD 5·TB 0

  11. B9

    DeLuca singled to left.

    ·

    LAD 5·TB 0

  12. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAD 5·TB 0

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 5·TB 0

  14. B9

    Justin Wrobleski pitches to Jonny DeLuca

    ·

    LAD 5·TB 0

  15. B9

    ·

    LAD 5·TB 0

  16. B9

    Morel struck out swinging.

    ·

    LAD 5·TB 0

  17. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    LAD 5·TB 0

  18. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 5·TB 0

  19. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 5·TB 0

  20. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    LAD 5·TB 0

  21. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAD 5·TB 0

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAD 5·TB 0

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 5·TB 0

  24. B9

    Justin Wrobleski pitches to Christopher Morel

    ·

    LAD 5·TB 0

  25. B9

    ·

    LAD 5·TB 0

  26. B9

    Caminero struck out swinging.

    ·

    LAD 5·TB 0

    −0.5pp

  27. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    LAD 5·TB 0

  28. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 5·TB 0

  29. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    LAD 5·TB 0

  30. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAD 5·TB 0

Team stats

LAD

Away

Stat

TB

Home

5

Runs

0

9

Hits

6

1

Errors

0

15

TB

6

1

HR

0

2

BB

0

15

K

8

10

LOB

13

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 13 players in cohort
  • Jonny DeLucaTB · RF
    SPRINT2993
  • Jake MangumPIT · LF
    SPRINT2993
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

TB vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 93 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
    6.3± 3.0low
  • Drew RasmussenTB
    6.0± 4.2low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.5± 3.7low

Hits

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    1.5± 0.9high
  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.5± 1.3high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    1.3± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    2.8± 1.7high
  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.1± 1.7high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.0± 1.3high

RBIs

  • Ryan WardLAD
    1.1± 1.6low
  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Ryan ViladeTB
    0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.0± 2.7low
  • Steven MatzTB
    2.6± 2.4low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    2.4± 1.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

42.6%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    47.6%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    45.8%

    P(TB win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    46.9%

    P(TB win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.74 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.